1. Current Hungarian labour market, shortages, surpluses, measures 2007 Tibor Bors Borbely borbelytibor@lab.hu senior consultant National Employment and Social Office Public Employment Service

2. 2 Current situation I. economy and labour market

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4. 4 EU25 & HU main figures EU25 HU Employment rate (15-64) 63.8%(2005)56.9% (2005) 56.8% (2004) 57% (2008 national target) Total unemployment 8.7%(2006) 7,5% (2006) 9.1%(2005) 7,2% (2005) Youth unemployment (15-24) 18.7% 20.4%(2004) employment rate 36.8%(2004) 27.1% (2005) LTU 47.4% (2005) GDP growth 4.6% (2005) 3.9% (2006) 1.4% (2007Q3) Average unemployment period in HU: 16.2 months

5. 5 Hungarian labour market main facts  570 000 active age citizens with only compulsory education (8 classes) = 30% of the active labour force In 30% Romas In 30% Romas  Activity rate -10 % to OECD average It’s – 20% between low / under-skilled It’s – 20% between low / under-skilled  Employment rate could be raised + 1,5% to 2015

6. 6 Languages… as a key for the European labour market, appr. 20% of the population speaks at least one foreign language (professed by themselves!)

7. 7 A homogeneous nation…

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9. Hungary among the NMS10

10. 10 1988-2006 Hungary

11. 11 New balance II. 2006; 2007-2009; -2013

12. 12 New Balance 2006-2009 Correction and Balance Source: Programme for Convergence Hungarian Republic September 2006 Ministry of Finance

13. 13 Regional differences, shortages and surpluses III.

14. 14 Unemployment rate (ILO) 15-74 ys. 2007Q1 Észak- Alföld Dél- Alföld Dél- Dunántúl Észak- Magyarország Közép- Dunántúl Közép- Magyarország Nyugat- Dunántúl 8,2 % 9,9 % 11,3 % 11,4 % 5,5 % 4,9 % 5,5 % Munkanélküliségi ráta 2007. I. név 11,0 - 11,9 9,0 - 9,9 8,0 - 8,9 4,0 - 5,9

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16. 16 Regional differences (NUTS IV. level) (unemployment) 2003

17. 17 Regional differences (NUTS IV level) (unemployed social beneficiaries) 2003

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19. 19 Short term forecast: labour demand

20. 20 Quarterly taken short-term labour market forecast 2007Q2 latest results

21. 21 Shortages / surpluses by sectors +3 months

22. 22 Shortages / surpluses by regions +3 months By occupations, positions

23. 23 Summary on demands and supplies 2007Q2 (spring)  +27 thousands dressmakers, tailors, conveyor belt workers, semi skilled mechanics, unskilled workers, IT engineers  - health care: nurses, GPs  - compulsory education: primary and secondary school teachers

24. 24 Wages and earning  You can find a detailed wage statistics at our website: http://internet.afsz.hu/sysres/adattar/index. html http://internet.afsz.hu/sysres/adattar/index. html http://internet.afsz.hu/sysres/adattar/index. html The structure of the earning survey is available in English as well at The structure of the earning survey is available in English as well at http://en.afsz.hu/engine.aspx?page=en_struc_earn_ surv http://en.afsz.hu/engine.aspx?page=en_struc_earn_ surv Let’s check an example:

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26. 26 For further information: Ministry of Employment and Social Affairs http://www.szmm.gov.huhttp://www.szmm.gov.hu (party English version available) Hungarian Central Statistical Office (HCSO) http://www.portal.ksh.hu National Employment and Social Office Also for Hungarian EURES daily news www.en.afsz.hu Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences http://www.econ.core.hu/eng/index.html Hungarian PLOTEUS site (NPK) www.npk.hu

27. 27  http://www.nepszamlalas2001.hu/eng/volumes/v olumes.html EN http://www.nepszamlalas2001.hu/eng/volumes/v olumes.html http://www.nepszamlalas2001.hu/eng/volumes/v olumes.html The Hungarian Labour Market 2007 (HAS IE)  http://econ.core.hu/kiadvany/mt.html http://econ.core.hu/kiadvany/mt.html The Hungarian Labour Market 2007 (PES) http://en.afsz.hu/engine.aspx?page=en_full_afsz_ en_labour_market_information http://en.afsz.hu/engine.aspx?page=en_full_afsz_ en_labour_market_information

28. 28 Thank you for kind your attention! You can contact me at: Borbelytibor[at]lab[dot]hu