1. 9 th International Conference on WIS & 14 th COLLNET Meeting 2013 Diffusion of Expectation in Science and Technology - Citation Patterns of the Global Stem Cell Market Size in Korean Newspapers Jinseo Park 1, Jungjin Hong 2 and JaeSung Kim 3 1 jayoujin@hanmail.net Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information, 66 Hoegiro, Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul (South Korea) 2 teaandhorseroad@gmail.com Korea Basic Science Institute, 169-148 Gwhak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon (South Korea) 3 jaesungkim@kisti.re.kr Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information, 245 Daehak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon (South Korea) ■The role of expectations in the development of science and technology has been receiving the attention by some disciplines, especially the sociology of expectations in science and technology (Borup et al., 2006). In early stage of scientific and technological process, various expectations are competing for the future reality from particular science and technology. They include technological possibilities, ethical issues and solvability of social issues with technology, and these expectations divide into optimistic or pessimistic positions. ■The important thing is that market forecast is a cohesive and represent expectation summing up various other expectations. Market expectations are collective and reflect how various expectations are realized in the market. They play a role as a promoter for social investment toward relevant science and technology, e.g. the rationale of public funding. ■In Korea, stem cell research has been the target of strategic R&D investment by Korean government. Korean government established the national plan for stem cell research after the “Hwang Scandal” and has announced annual action plan for stem cell research since 2007. At that time there were various estimates for stem cell market size, but Korean government selected an optimistic estimate for action plan since 2009 (MEST, 2009a). This estimate which government picked up has functioned as the rationale of government investment in stem cell R&D. The optimistic forecast for stem cell market which government selected has been reported in Korean press until now. After 2010 most institutes modified market estimates for stem cell market size lower compared to early optimistic estimates, but the rosy prospects for stem cell market dominate Korea so far. ■This study investigated the diffusion process of optimistic market size in Korean newspapers. What is the source of news that reports specific estimated market size? How do the modalities drop? Modalities enable the estimated market size to be right under specific constraint condition (Gläser & Laudel, 2007). ■ Bengisu, M. Nekhili, R. (2006), Forecasting emerging technologies with the aid of science and technology databases, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 73, pp. 835-844. ■ Järvenpää, H. M., Makinen, S. J., Seppanen, M. (2011), Patent and publishing activity sequence over a technology’s life cycle, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 78, pp. 283-293. ■ Martino, J. P. (2003), A Review of selected recent advances in technological forecasting, Technological Forecasting & Social Change 70, pp.719-733. ■ Maeno, T., Shibata, N. Kajikawa, Y. Sakata, I. (2011), Investigation of a lead indicator of technological innovations, PICMET 2011. Introduction Data & Methods ■In Korean newspapers, most news stories have reported that the global market size of stem cell is estimated at 32.4 billion dollars in 2012 and the global stem cell research market will grow at a CAGR 23.7%. In 2013, some newspapers reported that the global market size in 2012 was 32.4 billion dollars. The figure ‘32.4 billion dollars’ is not an estimate any more but an objective figure of past. ■We collected all news that reported the global market size was 32.4 billion dollars and other figures. Total 212 news articles were searched through Naver and Daum which are representative news portals in Korea. There are 136 news articles that reported 32.4 billion dollars for stem cell market size among 212 news articles. We examined all source of estimated market size. ■Meanwhile, we collected all reports that mentioned certain figures as stem cell market size through Google and the websites of all government. We identified 36 reports that were classified into four groups, government initiative (9), press release (7), private report (9) and public report (11). ■We identified 16 documents that were the origin of all figures. General citation pattern is as follows. ■Citation patterns of all documents (newspaper articles, government initiatives, press release, private reports and public reports) are classifiable into three types. First type is that they reveal the sources of their figures clearly (Type 1). Next thing is that they don’t reveal the sources directly on relevant statement but readers can infer the source of figures from another context in document (Type 2). Lastly, there are no sources and any readers cannot identify the sources in document (Type 3). 0 Results & Discussion ■ No. of news articles by year ■ Citation patterns in Korean newspapers by year (only Research Impact Technologies (2008)) ■Various estimates for stem cell market size (100 million dollars) ■Diffusion network of the market estimate in Korean newspapers “32.4 billion dollars” was most cited by news and we identified that the original source was the estimate of Research Impact Technologies (2008) and some reports and press release has cited or recited the figure of Research Impact Technologies (2008). The result was 136 news items until 2013. Figure 3 shows different citation patterns in this case. The number of type 1 decreased from 15 (2009) to 0 (2012) but type 2 and type 3 have been on the rise. In 2009, government selected the estimate of Research Impact Technologies (2008) for the first time in government initiative. The important thing is that there were other less optimistic estimates than that of Research Impact Technologies (2008) at that time. Although most market analyst corrected the optimistic estimates after 2010, government didn’t modify the optimistic estimates of Research Impact Technologies (2008). Before 2009After 2009 In conclusion, we identified the diffusion process of market expectations resembles the spread of an epidemic disease and government reports function as a carrier of social contagion in citation network. We discovered some characteristics for the diffusion of expectations in Korea as follows. - First, the optimistic market expectation of stem cell has proliferated through government’s reports and press releases over newspapers. - Second, the process of indirect quotation in press was the process of eliminating modalities that enabled original estimate to be reasonable under special conditions. - Finally, the source and citation of the optimistic estimate has gradually disappeared in newspaper and a particular estimate finally became a symbol for positive future.