1. The New Shape of the Republican Race Insights based on the work of Ronald Brownstein February 26, 2016 First Published: February 26, 2016 Producer: Alexander Perry Director: Afzal Bari

2. CandidateStanding in Race Donald Trump As in New Hampshire, Trump’s support in South Carolina has transcended usual divides in the Republican Party, with one big exception: education Trump has not run as well among voters with a college degree as he has among those lacking advanced education Simply put, Trump has consolidated blue-collar Republicans, while the party’s white collar wing remains divided Ted Cruz So far in the presidential race, Cruz’s voter base has been lopsidedly dependent on evangelical Christians; he has not effectively broadened his appeal The contests through mid-March portend to be decisive for Cruz, as they occur in states where blue collar workers and evangelicals make up a large component of the electorate Marco Rubio Rubio’s relatively strong performance with college-educated Republicans suggests a path with these voters as a centerpiece may be open to Rubio as the race continues In South Carolina, Rubio garnered support from many different parts of the electorate; however, he did not win more than 30% with any key group, suggesting that his coalition of support has so far been too shallow Trump Has Strong Hold on the Lesser Educated Vote; More Educated, White Collar Voters Have Yet to Coalesce February 26, 2016 | Alexander Perry Source: Ronald Brownstein, “The New Shape of the Republican Race,” The Atlantic, Feb 21, 2016; “South Carolina Exit Polls,” CNN Politics, Feb 20, 2016 Shape of Republican Race after South Carolina Primary RON BROWNSTEIN’S INSIGHT ON THE GOP RACEPRESENTATION CENTER

3. Trump Has Consolidated the Blue-Collar Vote, Dominating Among Those Lacking Higher Education February 26, 2016 | Alexander Perry Source: Ronald Brownstein, “The New Shape of the Republican Race,” The Atlantic, Feb 21, 2016; “South Carolina Exit Polls,” CNN Politics, Feb 20, 2016; Noun Project: Luis Prado. Blue Collar Vote in South Carolina GOP Primary, CNN Exit Polls RON BROWNSTEIN’S INSIGHT ON THE GOP RACEPRESENTATION CENTER ■ Trump ■ Cruz ■ Rubio Despite Trump’s strong hold on the blue-collar vote, two key questions remain: Does Trump have a ceiling of support and can any of his rivals unify enough of the remaining voters to defeat him? Trump even captured a plurality of evangelical voters without a college degree, eating into the group of voters Cruz targeted most directly So far, Donald Trump has dominated the working class vote and transcended normal demographic divides in the Republican party 45% of Electorate

4. Trump Displays Less Support Among Educated Voters; White Collar Vote is Still Fractured February 24, 2016 | Alexander Perry Source: Ronald Brownstein, “The New Shape of the Republican Race,” The Atlantic, Feb 21, 2016; “South Carolina Exit Polls,” CNN Politics, Feb 20, 2016; Noun Project: Creative Stall. Educated Vote in South Carolina GOP Primary, CNN Exit Polls RON BROWNSTEIN’S INSIGHT ON THE GOP RACEPRESENTATION CENTER ■ Trump ■ Cruz ■ Rubio 54% of Electorate 33% of Electorate 21% of Electorate Better-educated voters are relatively less likely to have voted for Trump; Among voters with a postgraduate education, Rubio won in SC by a significant margin Marc h 15 After March 15, the primary calendar shifts toward more affluent, better- educated states, where Trump may be more vulnerable

5. Trump Holds Broad Appeal Across Ideological Spectrum; Cruz Wins Among Very Conservative Voters February 26, 2016 | Alexander Perry Source: Ronald Brownstein, “The New Shape of the Republican Race,” The Atlantic, Feb 21, 2016; “South Carolina Exit Polls,” CNN Politics, Feb 20, 2016; Noun Project, Alex Tai, Alexander Wiefel. Ideological Vote in South Carolina GOP Primary, CNN Exit Polls RON BROWNSTEIN’S INSIGHT ON THE GOP RACEPRESENTATION CENTER ■ Trump ■ Cruz ■ Rubio 38% of Electorate 43% of Electorate 17% of Electorate Cruz has not been able to break out beyond voters who identify as very conservative Trump’s appeal spanned the ideological spectrum, as he held a significant lead among somewhat conservative and moderate voters and carried 29% of very conservative voters

6. Cruz’s Grasp on the Evangelical Vote Slipped in South Carolina February 26, 2016 | Alexander Perry Source: Ronald Brownstein, “The New Shape of the Republican Race,” The Atlantic, Feb 21, 2016; “South Carolina Exit Polls,” CNN Politics, Feb 20, 2016, Noun Project, Prasad. Evangelical Vote in South Carolina GOP Primary, CNN Exit Polls RON BROWNSTEIN’S INSIGHT ON THE GOP RACEPRESENTATION CENTER ■ Trump ■ Cruz ■ Rubio 72% of Electorate Worryingly for Cruz, his grasp on the evangelical vote was squeezed on two fronts in South Carolina: Rubio won among evangelicals with a college degree and Trump won among evangelicals without a college degree So far in the presidential race, Cruz’s voter base has been lopsidedly dependent on evangelical Christians; however, he has not effectively broadened his appeal. Among non- evangelical voters, Cruz has thus far performed poorly: 18% in IA, 8% in NH, 13% in SC, and 18% in NV 28% of Electorate This is a particularly concerning number for Cruz, who has not effectively broadened his appeal