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The Stroop Effect. Mr Ahmed says that his gas bill is getting more expensive. Mrs Ahmed says it is actually getting cheaper. Below are their gas bills.

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Presentation on theme: "The Stroop Effect. Mr Ahmed says that his gas bill is getting more expensive. Mrs Ahmed says it is actually getting cheaper. Below are their gas bills."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Stroop Effect

2 Mr Ahmed says that his gas bill is getting more expensive. Mrs Ahmed says it is actually getting cheaper. Below are their gas bills for a two-year period. Who do you think is right? Why? Time series 20132014 Quarter Jan – MarApr – JunJul – SepOct – DecJan – MarApr – JunJul – SepOct – Dec Bill (£)122.2487.0873.04118.46136.896.3480.06135.96 The data is easier to visualise as a time series graph.

3 Time series graph

4 [As there are four separate periods in each year, a four-point moving average can be calculated.] Point 1: Mean of first four values (122.4 + 87.08 + 73.04 + 118.46) ÷ 4 = 100.205 Point 2: Mean of next four values (87.08 + 73.04 + 118.46 + 136.8) ÷ 4 = 103.845 Point 3: Mean of next four values (73.04 + 118.46 + 136.8 + 96.34) ÷ 4 = 106.16 Point 4: Mean of next four values (118.46 + 136.8 + 96.34 + 80.06) ÷ 4 = 107.915 Point 5: Mean of next four values (136.8 + 96.34 + 80.06 + 135.96) ÷ 4 = 112.29 Calculating Moving Averages 20132014 Quarter Jan – MarApr – JunJul – SepOct – DecJan – MarApr – JunJul – SepOct – Dec Bill (£s) 122.2487.0873.04118.46136.896.3480.06135.96

5 The table below gives information about the number of TVs sold by Vision World in each quarter from 2010 to 2011. Plot the 4-point moving averages for this information (to 3 s.f.): Point 1: Mean of first four values (220 + 290 + 270 + 300) ÷ 4 = 270 Point 2: Mean of next four values (290 + 270 +300 + 295) ÷ 4 = 289 Point 3: Mean of next four values (270 + 300 + 295 + 335) ÷ 4 = 300 Point 4: Mean of next four values (300 + 295 + 335 + 325) ÷ 4 = 314 Point 5: Mean of next four values (295 + 335 + 325 + 340) ÷ 4 = 324 Your turn… 20132014 Quarter12341234 Number of TVs220290270300295335325340

6 Time series graph

7 1.Decide the number of values to combine for the moving average. 2.Calculate the moving average values. 3.Plot time along the x-axis. 4.Plot the points in the middle of the period of time. 5.Join the points with a ruler. 6.Comment on the general trend. Is it going up or down? Moving Average summary

8 YearOlympic ChampionCountryResult 1948Jacques DupontFRA1:13.5 1952Russell MockridgeAUS1:11.1 1956Leandro FagginITA1:09.8 1960Sante GaiardoniITA1:07.27 1964Patrick SercuBEL1:09.59 1968Pierre TrentinFRA1:03.91 1972Niels FredborgDEN1:06.44 1976Klaus-Jürgen GrünkeGDR1:05.927 1980Lothar ThomsGDR1:02.955 1984Fredy SchmidtkeFRG1:06.10 1988Aleksandr KirichenkoURS1:04.499 1992José MorenoESP1:03.342 1996Florian RousseauFRA1:02.712 2000Jason QueallyGBR1:01.609 2004Chris HoyGBR1:00.711 Data for Moving Average Point 1 Then plot another line showing the three-point moving averages. Plot the following data as a time series

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