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ROUND 9.0 COOPERATIVE FORECASTS OF FUTURE GROWTH Paul DesJardin COG Director of Community Planning and Services COG Board of Directors March 9, 2016 Agenda.

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Presentation on theme: "ROUND 9.0 COOPERATIVE FORECASTS OF FUTURE GROWTH Paul DesJardin COG Director of Community Planning and Services COG Board of Directors March 9, 2016 Agenda."— Presentation transcript:

1 ROUND 9.0 COOPERATIVE FORECASTS OF FUTURE GROWTH Paul DesJardin COG Director of Community Planning and Services COG Board of Directors March 9, 2016 Agenda Item #7

2 Agenda Item #7: Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecasts March 9, 2016 2 Cooperative Forecasting Process Regional Forecast Jurisdictional Small Area (TAZ) Reconciliation Regional Econometric Model Projections Employment Population Households Local Forecasts Short Term – Permits Long Term – Comprehensive Plans

3 Agenda Item #7: Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecasts March 9, 2016 3 Employment Change by 10-Year Increments National vs. COG / TPB Planning Area

4 Agenda Item #7: Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecasts March 9, 2016 4 Population Change by 10-Year Increments National vs. COG / TPB Planning Area

5 Agenda Item #7: Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecasts March 9, 2016 5 Employment Change by Sector 2015–2045 National vs. COG / TPB Planning Area

6 Agenda Item #7: Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecasts March 9, 2016 6 Employment Change by Sector 2015 – 2045 COG / TPB Planning Area

7 Agenda Item #7: Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecasts March 9, 2016 7 Summary of Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecasts COG / TPB Planning Area (Thousands) 2015 to 2045 20152045NumberPercent Employment 3,149.94,285.7 1,13636% Population 5,388.76,905.1 1,51628% Households 2,008.32,646.0 63832%

8 Agenda Item #7: Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecasts March 9, 2016 8 Change in 2040 Forecast from Round 8.4 COG / TPB Planning Area (Thousands) Round 8.4Round 9.0NumberPercent Employment4,370.84,130.4-240-6% Population6,619.26,698.7801% Households2,546.62,562.9161%

9 Agenda Item #7: Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecasts March 9, 2016 9 Employment 2015 - 2045

10 Agenda Item #7: Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecasts March 9, 2016 10 Population 2015 - 2045

11 Agenda Item #7: Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecasts March 9, 2016 11 Households 2015 - 2045

12 Agenda Item #7: Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecasts March 9, 2016 12 Forecasts for Jurisdictions in COG / TPB Planning Area Grouped Geographically for Analysis Purposes Central Jurisdictions Inner Suburbs Outer Suburbs District of Columbia Arlington Alexandria Montgomery Prince George’s Fairfax County Fairfax Falls Church Loudoun Prince William Manassas Manassas Park Charles Frederick County MD

13 Agenda Item #7: Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecasts March 9, 2016 13 Forecast Employment Growth, 2015 - 2045

14 Agenda Item #7: Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecasts March 9, 2016 14 Forecast Population Growth, 2015 - 2045

15 Agenda Item #7: Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecasts March 9, 2016 15 Forecast Household Growth, 2015 - 2045

16 Agenda Item #7: Round 9.0 Cooperative Forecasts March 9, 2016 16 COG Board to approve “Draft Round 9.0” for use in the Air Quality Conformity Analysis of the 2016 Update to the Financially Constrained Long-Range Transportation Plan (CLRP) and the FY 2017-2022 Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) on March 9 Local jurisdictions submit Round 9.0 forecasts by Transportation Analysis Zone (TAZ) by March 11, 2016 Final approval and adoption by the COG Board in November 2016 About COG

17 Paul DesJardin COG Community Planning and Services Director (202) 962-3293 pdesjardin@mwcog.org mwcog.org 777 North Capitol Street NE, Suite 300 Washington, DC 20002

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