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2016 REQUESTED BUDGET RTD Financial Administration and Audit Committee October 20, 2015
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Continue construction projects while shifting to operations and maintenance post-opening of 5 new service lines Increasing need to invest in State of Good Repair Grow fund balances to desired levels and adequate unrestricted fund balance Maintain investment in technology both current and forward-looking Future revenue levels expected to reflect slowing retail sales growth Fiscal sustainability Budget Theme: Meeting The Challenge 2
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Sales/use tax increase based on revised CU-Leeds School September forecast: Projected 2015 increase of 6.2%, down from 7.1% in the March forecast Projected 2016 increase of 8.0%, up from 4.8% in the March forecast Net result from March forecast is increase of $7.4 million in 2016 o Strong growth in RTD 2014 taxable sales segues to slower but robust growth in 2015-2017 o Colorado unemployment rate to continue to decline (close to 4.2% in 2015), personal income to grow strongly (peaking at 7.3% in 2017), retail sales to outperform nation until 2019 o Retail sales to be lower than the rates of change in personal income, implying more cautious spending and saving behavior Diesel fuel cost at $2.23 per gallon vs. $2.95 in 2016 Unrestricted year-end fund balance for Base System projected at $5.2 million, in line with SBP 2016 Major Budget Assumptions 3
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Grant revenue may be volatile due to budget challenges at national level Funding challenges for remaining FasTracks projects build-out Cost allocation from Base System to FasTracks for costs of operating lines West Line, DUS, FMR, US36 BRT full year cost allocation I-225 partial year cost allocation o US36 BRT and I-225 first time allocation in 2016 Resource (consumption) drivers vary among these services Service payment to Denver Transit Operators for first time in 2016 totaling $57M Pension and H&W plan contributions totaling $2.5 million necessary in 2016 2016 Budget Challenges 4
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RTD Diesel Fuel Price – 8-Year History 5
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Sales/Use Tax Revenue % Growth September Forecast – CU Leeds School 6
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Sales/Use Tax Revenue $ Growth September Forecast – CU Leeds School 7
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Sales/Use Tax Revenue (Base System) Current Forecast Comparison 8
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2016 Sources – Base System 9
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2016 Uses – Base System 11
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2016 Uses – Base System 12
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2016 Sources - FasTracks 13
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2016 Sources - FasTracks 14
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2016 Uses – FasTracks 15
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2016 Uses – FasTracks 16
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2016 Uses – Capital (Combined) 17
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2016 Uses – Capital (Combined) 18
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2016 Budget Calendar – Next Steps Nov. 10Presentation of 2016 Recommended Budget to Financial Administration and Audit Committee to forward to the Board Nov. 17Public Hearing and Board Adoption of 2016 Budget 19
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