1. TRENDS, IMPLICATIONS AND POLICY RESPONSES 1 Climate Change

2. Learning Objectives 2 At the end of this topic you should be able to: Outline the trends in GHG emissions over time and identify the major emitters by region and country Discuss the drivers of GHG emissions Understand, why the problem of climate change is difficult to remedy for individual nations Discuss the most effective global strategies designed to alleviate the problem of climate change

3. Climate Change Definition 3 The UNFCC (2014) defines climate change as ‘ a change in climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods’

4. Climate Change 4 Greenhouse gases (Co2, CFCs, nitrous oxide, methane) absorb the infra-red radiation from the earths surface and trap the heat, raising the temperature of the earths surface How severe is the problem? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report, 2014 – Assessment Report 5

5. IPCC Report 2014 5 ‘science now shows with 95% certainly that human activity is the dominant cause of observed warming since the mid 20 th century’ most of the observed increases in global average temperatures since the mid-20 th century is very likely due to the observed increase in greenhouse gas concentrations’ (p.10) ‘predicts an average global rise in temperature of 3.7 C to 4.8C by 2100 without mitigation efforts

6. Summary IPCC (2014) 6

7. Potential climate changes impact 7

8. Trends in CO2 Emissions 1850-2010 8 Co2 Emissions

9. GHG emissions accelerate despite reduction efforts. Most emission growth is CO 2 from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes.

10. Trends in GHG emissions 10 From 1960-2013 global emissions increased by 61%. Global GHG emissions increased to 36bn tons of CO2 in 2013 and are predicted to grow by a further 2.5% annually This is about 65% more fossil-fuel emission that 1990, when international climate negotiations began with the aim of reducing emissions Growth of global emissions since 2009 has been slower than in the period 2000-08 Global emissions are expected to grow to almost 45bn tons by 2019 According to the IPCC, if this trend continues, this could lead to global average temperature increases of between 3.2C and 5.4C by 2100

11. Trends in Co2 emissions: 11 Two thirds of Emissions come from less developed countries that account for 80% of the global population Top 6 emitters are China (20%), the US (16%), EU- 27 (11%), India (6%), Russia (5%) and Japan (4%) Many countries in the OECD in 2013 achieved emission reductions including EU-28 (-1.8%) and Australia (2%)Why?

12. Top Emitters by Region (tonnes co2) 12

13. Co2 Emissions per capita 1990-2013 13

14. Per Capita Emissions 14 In 2011, per capital Co2 emissions in China increased by 9% to 7.2 tonnes (similar to EU 7.5 tonnes). Emissions grew at just 4.2% in 2013 US was largest CO emitter at 17.3 tonnes per capita. Concentration of Co2 emissions has increased from 356 to 392 ppm since 1992 If current global emissions continues, in just two decades we will have reached a global increase in temperature of 2.C

15. Top Ten Emitters By Country, 2012 15

16. Global Co2 Emissions by Country 16

17. GHG Emission Drivers 17 Growth in Emission levels are driven by  Economic Growth  Population Growth  Energy Intensity of Growth (Energy/GDP)  Emission Intensity of Energy Growth in economic output and population are the two main drivers for increasing GHG emissions and outpace emission reductions from improvements in energy efficiency

18. GHG emissions rise with growth in GDP and population; long-standing trend of decarbonisation of energy reversed.

19. Carbon Intensity of Energy is increasing Between 2000 and 2010 increased use of coal relative to many other energy sources has reversed a long standing trend of gradual decarbonisation of the worlds energy supply Increased use of coal, especially in developing Asia, is increasing GHG emissions Without policy efforts to reduce GHG emissions the fundamental drivers of emissions growth are expected to persist despite major improvements in energy supply and technologies Without policy action the IPCC (2013) estimate that GHG emissions will be somewhere between 750 and 1300ppm by 2100

20. Results even if GHG are stabilised? 20 Global warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilised

21. 21 The temperature will increase long after emissions are reduced

22. Policy Objectives 22 The common goal of UNFCC is to limit the global temperature increase to 2’C To achieve the atmospheric concentration levels can be no more than 450ppm According to the IPCC to achieve this will require between a 40 and 70% cut in emissions by 2050

23. Climate Change Mitigation 23 UNFCC (2014) defines climate change mitigation as ‘ a human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases’ ‘Ultimate goal of mitigation is preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system within a time frame to allow ecosystems to adapt, to ensure food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner’ (UNFCC, 2014)

24. International Agreements 24 International Cooperation is necessary to significantly mitigate climate change (Global commons problem) According to the IPCC 2014 report international cooperation has produced “agreement regarding a long term goal of limiting global temperature increase to no more than 2C above preindustrial levels, but the overall level of mitigation achieved to date by cooperation appears inadequate to achieve this goal”

25. The Kyoto protocol: International Agreements on Climate Change 25 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 1992 Kyoto Protocol agreed in December, 1997 and set legally binding emission targets and was opened for signing in January, 1998 Became effective when enough countries signed the agreement and represented at least 55 per cent of the total C02 emissions (2005) Called for a 5 per cent reduction in average annual emissions below 1990 levels 187 signatories (US not ratified) covering 64% of global CO2 emissions Kyoto Agreement has 2 commitment periods: 2005-12 and 2013-20

26. Implementation Mechanism 26 Three Mechanisms (1) Emissions Trading (2) Joint Implementation (3) Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) Emissions trading is the primary tool used to fulfil emission targets

27. Emissions Trading 27 Biggest benefit of emissions trading is that it offers participating countries a way to meet their targets cost effectively and in a flexible way Emissions trading encourages the mobilisation of private capital Encourages technical innovation And should reduce the long run cost of controlling climate change http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2012 /nov/26/kyoto-protocol-carbon-emissions http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2012 /nov/26/kyoto-protocol-carbon-emissions http://felixonline.co.uk/politics/2943/has-kyoto- really-been-successful/ http://felixonline.co.uk/politics/2943/has-kyoto- really-been-successful/

28. Evaluating Climate Change Policies 28 Four Criteria Environmental Effectiveness Aggregate Economic Performance Distributional Impacts Institutional Feasibility

29. Was Kyoto Agreement effective? 29 Environmental Effectiveness?  The aggregate emission countries (38 Annex 1) have reduced emissions by 9.2% below the Kyoto Protocols below the 5.2% target but this was due to global economic recession and countries in transition  Environmental effectiveness reduced due to Participation issues (US not participating)

30. Was Kyoto Protocol Effective? 30 Economic Performance Were the three market based instruments cost effective and did they maximise social benefit In theory the emissions trading should have reduced abatement costs by 50% in practice there were too few trades Joint implementation- should have improved cost effectiveness but tended to be limited to a few countries Clean Development mechanism effectiveness is limited because of additionally of projects, emission leakage and price decreases

31. Was Kyoto Protocol Effective? 31 Distributional Impacts were limited due to a concentration of projects in a limited number of countries Also non-annex 1 countries saw cumulative increases in GHGs that were very significant

32. Was Kyoto Protocol Effective? 32 Institutional Feasibility Ratified by 191 countries (plus the EU). Participation dropped in the second commitment period (2013- 2020) Issues with enforcement and weakness of sanctions

33. Successor to Kyoto –Copenhagen 2009 33 UN Climate change Conference, Copenhagen, 2009 Expectation that treaty to succeed Kyoto Protocol would be adopted Copenhagen accord recognized the scientific case for keeping temperatures below 2C But DOES NOT contain commitments to reduce emissions to achieve this objective Pledges funds to help developing countries adapt to climate change The accord was not formally adopted but just ´noted´ by countries

34. Durban Platform, 2011 34 UNFCCC Durban 2011. Durban platform agreed decision to adopt by 2015 ´a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the convention applicable to all parties´ and to come into effect and ´be implemented beginning in 2020’ Also agreed to a temperature taget by international communities and pledges for emission reductions. Problem: Still significant gap even if all pledges are filled which make it less likely to reach 2C target

35. The 2015 International Agreement 35 Negotiations launched in 2011 at the Durban Climate Conference for a new international climate change agreement that covers all countries will be adopted in 2015 and implemented from 2020 Agreement set to take the form of a legally binding instrument and binding commitments on emission reductions The EU, a few other European countries and Australia have joined a legally binding second period of the Kyoto Protocl which runs until 2020 http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/future/i ndex_en.htm http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/future/i ndex_en.htm

36. Summary 36 Very difficult to control pollution when it is a global problem There is still significant scientific uncertainty regarding the pace of climate change Cost effective policies to reduce global emissions will be adopted more quickly by countries Effective policies require participation by a strong majority of countries if the problem of climate change is to be controlled

37. Reading 37 OECD (2012) Environmental Outlook to 2050, Chapter 3 IPCC 2014 Report chapter 13 IPCC 2014 Report technical summary Field & Field (2013): Environmental Economics: An Introduction, ch. 20 pp428-434 Olivier et al (2013)Trends in Global Co2 Emissions:2012 Report.European Commission Green et al (2007), Climate Change: Caps V Taxes, Environmental Policy Outlook No.2 Kettner et al (2008) Stringency and Distribution in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme: First Evidence. Climate Policy, 8, pp 41-61 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/20/science/earth/extremely -likely-that-human-activity-is-driving-climate-change-panel- finds.html?pagewanted=all http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/20/science/earth/extremely -likely-that-human-activity-is-driving-climate-change-panel- finds.html?pagewanted=all Embedded links (short articles)