1. VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND 1 VTT PROCESSES Workshop on uncertainties in GHG inventories 5 -6 September, 2005 Helsinki IPCC 2006 Guidelines Suvi Monni VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland

2. VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND 2 VTT PROCESSES 2006 IPCC Guidelines t Builds on previous guidance – 1996 Revised Guidelines (IPCC 1996) – Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management (IPCC 2000) – Good Practice Guidance for LULUCF (IPCC 2004) t Volume 1: General Guidance and Reporting – Chapter 1: Introduction – Chapter 2: Data Collection (new!) – Chapter 3: Uncertainties – Chapter 4: Methodological choice and identification of key categories – Chapter 5: Time series consistency – Chapter 6: QA/QC and verification – Chapter 7: Ozone precursors, SO 2 and indirect emissions – Chapter 8: Reporting guidance and tables

3. VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND 3 VTT PROCESSES Uncertainties t Volume 1: Tier  Approach t No major changes in methodology t Improved guidance on – key concepts and terminology – causes of uncertainty – sources of data and information for uncertainty estimates – techniques for quantifying uncertainties – reducing uncertainty t Default uncertainties in sectoral Volumes

4. VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND 4 VTT PROCESSES Methods to combine uncertainties t Approach 1: no major changes in methodology – Spreadsheet approach for level and trend uncertainties – Approximate for large uncertainties  Approach to deal with large and asymmetric uncertainties t Approach 2: no changes in methodology – Monte Carlo – Can deal with large and asymmetric uncertainty, complex models and correlations t Hybrid combination of Approach 1 and Approach 2 – Monte Carlo for a subset of inventory (e.g. SWD) – Results combined with Approach 1 using tehcniques to deal with asymmetric uncertainties t Use of other appropriate techniques encouraged

5. VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND 5 VTT PROCESSES Comparison between Approaches Case: Finland 2003Approach 1Approach 2 Level 2003 without LULUCF±8%-4 to +8% Level 2003 with LULUCF±16%-14 to +15% Trend 1990-2003 without LULUCF±6% points-6 to +4% points Trend 1990-2003 with LULUCF±19% points-18 to +23% points

6. VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND 6 VTT PROCESSES Methodological choice t One Approach including both sinks and sources – Possibility to prepare also for a subsets of inventory t Some technical modifications in trend assessment t Approach 2 with uncertainties additional to Approach 1 t Order of categories of Approach 2 may be interesting for Parties t Qualitative criteria

7. VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND 7 VTT PROCESSES 2006 IPCC Guidelines is still under construction… Expert/government review 12 September - 7 November 2005