1. Metro Data Resource Center Portland Metro: MetroScope 2002 – 2008 A Tool for Regional Decision Making Presentation to the New York Metropolitan Transportation Council Sonny Conder, Principal Planner May 1, 2008

2. Metro Data Resource Center Presentation Outline Model Description Model Development History Present Status and Operating Staffing Examples of How We Use the Model

3. Metro Data Resource Center Metroscope Schematic Job Demand Forecast Travel Times/Access (Travel Demand Model) Metroscope Residential Model HIA Demand Forecast Land Supply / Capacity Data Vacant Land, Refill Supply, UR etc. Metroscope Non- Residential Model HIA location choices Job location choices HIA Location Choices Job Location Choices

4. Metro Data Resource Center Forecast Allocation Area Clackamas Co. Clark Co. Washington Co. Multnomah Co. Tailored to allocate growth to UGB, but also anticipates external “leakage”. 6.5 counties 2 m pop 425 rzones 72 ezones 2029 taz’s

5. Metro Data Resource Center Present MetroScope operating requirements  Model operates in 5 year periods from year 2000 to 2035. A 35 year run requires 28 hours.  Staff time required per run for model.  Model operation: Less than 1 staff hour for review, initiation and run time monitoring  Run setup: 2 – 6 staff hours for land use schedules by period – UGB expansions, Urban Renewal births/deaths.  Run output evaluation and reporting: 1 – 21 staff days depending on use, mapping and write up needs.

6. Metro Data Resource Center Background of MetroScope Background of MetroScope  Originally one zone residential model used for housing needs analysis.  Multi-zones added in 98.  Developed entirely “in house” by Metro technical staff starting in 96 – 97.  Non-residential model added in 99.  Partial conversion from entirely spreadsheet to Visual Basic in 2001 – 02.  Complete Visual Basic in 2004  Addition of internal travel demand – assignment model; conversion to open source,R code (PTV) and programming integration (PTV) as one model in 2005 – 2006.

7. Metro Data Resource Center Informing Planners & Policy Makers  Transportation Planning  Corridor Studies  Regional Transportation Plan (RTP)  Transit Studies (e.g., Light Rail)  Land Use Planning  Jobs and Housing Needs Analysis  Periodic Review  UGB analysis  Testing Alternative Land Use & Transportation Policies

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17. Annual Land Consumption

18. Metro Data Resource Center Land Consumed by Type: 2000- 2030 Land Consumed by Type: 2000- 2030

19. Metro Data Resource Center Land Consumed By Source 2000-2030  Annual vacant land consumption rate: 1,500 gross acres per year  36,000 gross acres total  Refill land: 8,300  2,300 gross acres in centers

20. Metro Data Resource Center Land Efficiency Measures Employment  : 8.7 units/gross acre  Clackamas 4.6  Washington: 4.9  158,000 single family units -> 64%  90,000 multi-family units -> 36%

21. Metro Data Resource Center Land Efficiency Measures Employment  Floor to Area Ratios:  Industrial = 0.24 (regional average)  Commercial = 0.34 (regional average)  Job Densities  Industrial = 800 sq. ft. / job (13 jobs/acre)  Commercial = 480 sq. ft. / job (31 jobs/acre)

22. Metro Data Resource Center Residential Refill and Capture Rates  Capture Rate  Housing: 69.5%  Employment: 75.5%  Refill Rate  Housing: 30.9%  Industrial: 7.6%  Commercial: 47.7%  Institutional: 40.7%  Aggregated Total: 36.5%

23. Metro Data Resource Center Residential Development Density by Land Source

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