1. Chapter 11 Aggregate Supply and Demand

2. A Macro View Macroeconomics is the study of the aggregate economic behavior, of the economy as a whole.

3. Macro Outcomes The basic macro outcomes include: –Output - the total volume of goods and services produced (real GDP). –Jobs - the levels of employment and unemployment. –Prices - the average prices of goods and services.

4. Macro Outcomes The basic macro outcomes include: –Growth - the year-to-year expansion in production capacity. –International balances - the international value of the dollar; trade and payment balances with other countries.

5. Macro Determinants The determinants of macro performance include: –Internal market forces - population growth, spending behavior, invention and innovation, and the like. –External shocks - wars, natural disasters, terrorist attacks, trade disruptions, and so on.

6. Macro Determinants The determinants of macro performance include: –Policy levers - tax policy, government spending, changes in interest rates and the availability of money, trade policy, immigration policy, and regulation.

7. The Macro Economy

8. Stable or Unstable? The central concern of macroeconomic theory is whether the internal forces of the marketplace will generate desired outcomes.

9. Classical Theory and Self- Adjustment This was the prevalent theory prior to the 1930s. According to the classical view, the economy self-adjusts to deviations from its long-term growth trend.

10. Flexible Prices The cornerstones of the Classical Theory were flexible wages and flexible prices. Flexible prices virtually guarantee that all output could be sold. No one would lose a job because of weak consumer demand.

11. Flexible Wages Flexible wages would ensure that everyone who wants a job would have a job.

12. Say’s Law According to Say’s Law, “supply creates its own demand.” Unsold goods will ultimately be sold when buyers and sellers find an acceptable price.

13. Say’s Law In the labor market, some people will be unemployed, but can find new jobs if they are willing to accept lower wages. According to Classical economists, government intervention in the (self- adjusting) macro economy is unnecessary.

14. Inflation and Unemployment, 1900 – 1940

15. The Keynesian Revolution The Great Depression was a stunning blow to Classical economists. John Maynard Keynes provided an alternative to the Classical Theory. Keynes argued that the Great Depression was not a unique event. It would recur if reliance on the market to “self- adjust” continued.

16. No Self-Adjustment Keynes asserted that the private economy was inherently unstable. The inherent instability of the marketplace required government intervention. Policy levers were both effective and necessary.

17. The Aggregate Supply-Demand Model Any influence on macro outcomes must be transmitted through supply or demand.

18. Aggregate Demand Aggregate demand is the total quantity of output demanded at alternative price levels in a given time period, ceteris paribus.

19. Real GDP (Output) Real GDP is the inflation-adjusted value of GDP or the value of output in constant prices.

20. Price Level The aggregate demand curve illustrates how the volume of purchases varies with average prices: –With a given (constant) level of income, people will buy more goods and services at lower prices.

21. Aggregate Demand Curve The Aggregate Demand curve is downward sloping for three reasons: –Real balances effect –Foreign trade effect –Interest-rate effect

22. Real Balances Effect The real value of money is measured by how many goods and services each dollar will buy. As prices fall, money can purchase more goods and services.

23. Foreign Trade Effect If domestic prices decline, consumers demand more domestic output and fewer imports.

24. Interest-Rate Effect At lower price levels, interest rates fall as consumers borrow less. Lower interest rates stimulate more borrowing and loan-financed purchases.

25. Aggregate Demand

26. Aggregate Supply Aggregate supply is the total quantity of output producers are willing and able to supply at alternative price levels in a given time period, ceteris paribus.

27. Aggregate Supply The aggregate supply curve is upward- sloping. We expect the rate of output to increase when the price level rises.

28. Profit Margins Producers’ short-run costs, like rent and negotiated wages, are relatively constant. Higher product prices tend to widen their profit margins, so producers will want to produce and sell more goods.

29. Costs Production costs tend to increase as producers try to produce more. –They must acquire more resources and use existing plant and equipment more intensively.

30. Costs The aggregate supply curve is relatively flat when capacity is underutilized. It begins to slope upward as producers approach capacity.

31. Aggregate Supply

32. Macro Equilibrium Aggregate supply and demand curves summarize the market activity of the whole (macro) economy.

33. Macro Equilibrium Macro equilibrium – the unique combination of price level and real output that is compatible with both aggregate demand and aggregate supply. It is the only price-output combination mutually compatible with both buyers’ and sellers’ intentions.

34. Macro Equilibrium

35. Disequilibrium If the price level is higher than at equilibrium, buyers will want to buy less than producers want to produce and sell. This is a disequilibrium situation, in which the intentions of buyers and sellers are incompatible.

36. Macro Disequilibrium

37. Macro Failure There are two potential problems with macro equilibrium - undesirability and instability.

38. Macro Failure Undesirability - the price-output relationship at equilibrium may not satisfy our macroeconomic goals. Instability - even if the designated macro equilibrium is optimal, it may be displaced by macro disturbances.

39. Undesirable Outcomes Unemployment - the inability of labor-force participants to find jobs. Inflation - an increase in the average level of prices of goods and services.

40. An Undesired Equilibrium

41. Unstable Outcomes Shifts in aggregate supply and aggregate demand can upset a full employment equilibrium.

42. Shifts of AS and AD A leftward shift of the aggregate supply curve results in higher price levels and less output. A leftward shift of the aggregate demand curve results in lower price levels and less output.

43. Recurrent Shifts Business cycles result from recurrent shifts of the aggregate supply and demand curves: –Business cycles are alternating periods of economic growth and contraction.

44. Macro Disturbances

45. Shift Factors There are lots of reasons to expect aggregate supply and aggregate demand to shift.

46. Demand Shifts The aggregate demand curve might shift as a result of changes in: –Consumer sentiment. –Taxes on consumer income. –Interest rates.

47. Supply Shifts The aggregate supply curve might shift as a result of changes in: –The price or availability of raw materials. –Business tax changes. –Environmental or workplace regulations.

48. Competing Theories of Short-Run Instability Economists are not in complete agreement about how to achieve desired macro outcomes. Macro controversies focus on the shape of the aggregate supply and aggregate demand curves and the potential to shift them.

49. Demand-Side Theories Keynesian Theory Monetary Theories

50. Keynesian Theory Keynes argued that if people demand a product, producers will supply it. If aggregate spending isn't sufficient, some goods will remain unsold and some production capacity will be idled.

51. Keynesian Theory Keynesian theory urges increased government spending or tax cuts as mechanisms for increasing (shifting) aggregate demand.

52. Monetary Theories Monetary theories focus on the control of money and interest rates as mechanisms for shifting the aggregate demand curve. Money and credit affect the ability and willingness of people to buy goods and services.

53. Monetary Theories If the right amount of money is not available, aggregate demand may be too small. High interest rates decrease aggregate demand.

54. Supply-Side Theories A decline in aggregate supply causes output and employment to decline. The focus of supply-side theory is to get more output by shifting the AS curve to the right.

55. Eclectic Explanations Shifts in both supply and demand curves may occur.

56. Origins of a Recession: Demand Shifts

57. Origins of a Recession: Supply Shifts

58. Origins of a Recession: AS/AD Shifts

59. Policy Options Essentially, the government has three policy options: –Shift the aggregate demand curve. –Shift the aggregate supply curve. –Do nothing.

60. Fiscal Policy Fiscal policy is the use of government taxes and spending to alter macro- economic outcomes. –Fiscal policy is conducted by Congress and the President.

61. Monetary Policy Monetary policy is the use of money and credit controls to influence macro-economic activity. –The Federal Reserve is the regulatory body that controls the supply of money.

62. Supply-Side Policy Supply-side policy is the use of tax rates, (de)regulation, and other mechanisms to increase the ability and willingness to produce goods and services.

63. The Changing Choice of Policy Levers The “do nothing” approach prevailed until the Great Depression. The Great Depression spurred a desire for a more active government role.

64. The Changing Choice of Policy Levers: 1960s Fiscal policy dominated the economic debate in the 1960s. The promise of fiscal policy was tarnished by its failure to control inflation in the late 1960s.

65. The Changing Choice of Policy Levers: 1970s Monetary policy dominated macro policy in the 1970s. The heavy reliance on monetary policy ended with a recession in the late 1970s.

66. The Changing Choice of Policy Levers: 1980s Supply-side policies prevailed in the 1980s with President Ronald Reagan.

67. The Changing Choice of Policy Levers: 1990s The George H. Bush administration pursued a less activist approach in the early 1990s. Bill Clinton pursued a contractionary fiscal policy in the mid-1990s. This fiscal policy retreat cleared the way for the reemergence of monetary policy.

68. The Changing Choice of Policy Levers: 2005 The fiscal restraint of the late 1990s helped the federal budget move from deficits to surpluses. In 2001, 2002, and 2003, Congress cut taxes in an attempt to deal with a recession. This fiscal stimulus shifted the AD curve to the right.

69. Aggregate Supply and Demand End of Chapter 11