1. Liberalisation, dualization or integration? How to interpret changes in labour market and social policies over the last three decades Christine Erhel (CES-Université Paris 1 and CEE)

2. 1- Empirical trends on the labour market: Liberalisation, dualization and integration… Integration Increase in global and especially women’s employment rates Increase in further training Liberalization Decrease in EPL, indirect labour costs, unemployment insurance replacement rates and duration, unionization rates, individualization of wages… = more flexible labour markets Dualization (segmentation) Evidence in the book, especially for Continental countries Growing Inequalities in employment rates by age, education levels (exception: gender); income inequalities Job quality trends: polarization? Individual and jobs approach

3. 2-A common economic paradigm? These labour market outcomes are the result of structural economic/social change but also of many LM reforms Key words:activation/making work pay/ flexicurity… A common paradigm: a “new synthesis” of neo/new Keynesian and neo-classical economists Based on imperfect competition hypotheses (non competitive wage setting, transaction costs, imperfect information, etc.): WS-PS + matching models Unemployment : equilibrium and “classic”, finding its causes on the labour market/institutions (=non Keynesian result) Policy conclusions: increase the level of competition and flexibility About dualism… Insiders/outsiders models are a variant of this approach, but are fully embedded in it…and lead to pro-flexibility conclusions (see Saint Paul, Bentolila and Cahuc on Spain, or France) Contrary to Doeringer and Piore who put the stress on demand factors

4. 3-Policy orientations to fight against dualization… Reconsider the original message of the segmentation theory Focus on firms and their environment: demand, financing…HRM practices are related to these factors Reduce uncertainty: macroeconomic policy, industrial policy, financial sector regulation…Also the main message from Keynesian approaches to unemployment Focus on quality Education Job quality (in a broad sense, including transitions and lifecourse perspective/ childcare, conciliation policies/also a role for UI and income maintenance schemes to allow job search processes). Quality of services (care; education) A prominent role of the European level EES job quality focus but also “harder” devices: structural funds; financial regulation; industrial policy