1. Minimizing Unforeseen Consequences The gauntlet The DHS-funded tool The non-profit leveraging that tool (and others) Discussion Summary June 23, 20161

2. The Gauntlet June 23, 20162 John Voeller’s keynote at COFES 2011 on Wide-Thinking

3. June 23, 20163

4. Minimizing Unforeseen Consequences The Gauntlet The DHS-funded tool The non-profit leveraging that tool (and others) Discussion Summary June 23, 20164

5. TOOLS FOR MANAGING CHANGE IN UNCERTAIN AND COMPLEX ENVIRONMENTS Miriam Heller, Ph.D. EcoBuild Conference Washington, DC December 8, 2011 June 23, 20165

6. CIPDSS What is it? Why was it created? What is it for? Why should I care? What is its current status? June 23, 20166

7. What is CIPDSS? Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System June 23, 20167

8. 8 Critical Infrastructures

9. What is CIPDSS? Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System A complex “system of systems” Consisting of suites of interdependent models of infrastructure June 23, 20169

10. Infrastructure Interdependencies June 23, 201610

11. Why was CIPDSS created? 9/11 validated our intuition Unforeseen consequences to infrastructure DHS created Clear need for a tool to assess and manage risk to protect infrastructure deemed critical to the national interest and wellbeing Concept: Spreadsheet of risks, targets, and points of potential attack or failure June 23, 201611

12. What is CIPDSS for? Designed to simulate how changes or disruptions propagate across different infrastructures For the purpose of helping leaders make decisions with a clearer understanding of risks and the range of the consequences of those decisions June 23, 201612 Source: B. Bush

13. How CIPDSS got started Goal – A risk-informed decision support tool to provide insights for making Critical Infrastructure-related decisions. Sponsor – CIP Portfolio, Science & Technology Directorate of DHS Project Team – Argonne National Laboratory – Los Alamos National Laboratory – Sandia National Laboratories Phased, iterative development, keyed on specific cases June 23, 201613 Source: B. Bush

14. What does CIPDSS address? Threats – Malevolent, Insider, Accidental, Natural Vulnerabilities – Physical, Human, Cyber, Intellectual – Dependencies and Interdependencies Consequences – Life, Economic, Property, Environmental June 23, 201614

15. CIPDSS Project Architecture June 23, 201615 Source: B. Bush

16. June 23, 201616 Why should I care?

17. CIPDSS Vision June 23, 201617 Source: B. Bush

18. What is its current status? $60M+ spent on development Met mandate (CIPDSS vision) but not its potential (world impact) No funding for model development or enhancement Mostly idle Underutilized asset with significant value to others June 23, 201618

19. What could be done CIPDSS DoesCould do June 23, 201619

20. Minimizing Unforeseen Consequences The Gauntlet The DHS-funded tool The non-profit leveraging that tool (and others) Discussion Summary June 23, 201620

21. Introducing: June 23, 201621

22. Introducing C4UC Founding Principles Our Team Architecture & “Special Sauces” Timeline & Status Discussion June 23, 201622

23. Founding Principles 501c3 We ≯ Them ♒ Purple Not in it for the money Collaborative, not combative Increase value stepwise Non-partisan Act globally June 23, 201623

24. Founding Principles - = + Negative findings count, too Infer, not impose semantic structure Remember: Further we look, the lower the probability Data and Models are only an abstraction June 23, 201624

25. Our Team Vision and Management – Holtz, Jackson, Hammond, Richardson, Noel Science and Systems – Cummings, Heller, Gheorghe, Ullman, Riddle, Seitz Directors and Advisors – Voeller, House, Gage, Morley, Hall, Brinks Relationships – SNL, ANL, LANL, Stanford June 23, 201625

26. Architecture Stage 1: Access Stage 2: “Special Sauces” – Framework, Visualization, Decision Support Stage 3: Other Data and Models Stage 4: Science June 23, 201626

27. Stage 1: Access C4UC acts as an agent between our constituents and The Labs (ANL, SNL, & LANL) Labs contain deep silos of scientific expertise C4UC focuses on – problem definition – necessary handoffs – Interpretation to support decisions June 23, 201627

28. Stage 2: “Special Sauces” Decision Support Visualization – Squishiness of Results – Feel for Sensitivity – Understand Precision June 23, 201628

29. Stage 2: “Special Sauces” Decision Support Visualization Framework – Speed – Soup June 23, 201629

30. Stage 3: Other Data & Models Open Source University C4UC Private All in the “soup” June 23, 201630

31. Stage 4: New Science Others focus on the deep science We focus on the handoffs June 23, 201631

32. Stage 4: New Science Framework supports many models The science of interdependencies between models is incomplete We will fund new research on that incomplete knowledge June 23, 201632

33. Timeline & Status Stage 1: Q1 ‘12 Stage 2: Framework – Proof of concept <30 days – Development 1H’12 – Initial operations 2H’12 Stage 2: Visualization – Funding dependent. On schedule for 2H’12 or 1H’13 Stage 2: Decision Support – Proof of concept complete – Initial operations w/in 30 days of first customer request June 23, 201633

34. Minimizing Unforeseen Consequences The Gauntlet The DHS-funded tool The non-profit leveraging that tool (and others) Discussion Summary June 23, 201634

35. Minimizing Unforeseen Consequences The Gauntlet The DHS-funded tool The non-profit leveraging that tool (and others) Discussion Summary June 23, 201635

36. Summary Today’s problems are not isolated or short term US Gov’t has 100s of models for insight Current situation: – Investment (CIPDSS seed) has already been made – Met mandate (CIPDSS vision) but not its potential (world impact) – No one is doing this in a integrated fashion (providing access) – Everyone is focusing on their own area of interest June 23, 201636

37. Summary C4UC was created to as nonprofit to address this and provide insight and decision support – 2 nd to 4 th order cascade of consequences – Orchestrated execution – Speed model execution – Add additional models C4UC’s mission is to provide insight – Making known the knowable – Education and Research June 23, 201637

38. Points to be made simply Today’s problems are not isolated to one area of interest or short term time horizons The US gov’t has already developed 100s of models that provide insight on a consequence of certain events/actions/decisions on discrete areas of Interest Solving these problems requires integrating this various models Gov’t had invested in integrating some of these models however… Current situation Investment (CIPDSS seed) has already been made Met mandate (CIPDSS vision) but not its potential (world impact) No one is doing this in a integrated fashion (providing access) Everyone is focusing on their area of interest C4UC was created to as nonprofit to address this gap and provide the insight on the second through 4 th order of consequences 2 nd to 4 th order consequences are the effects based upon previous effects [spider web examples] Automate execution orchestration Speed model execution Add additional models C4UC’s missions is to provide insight (knowledge of potential consequences) and education Our ask—want do we want attendees to do?

39. Provoking questions Do you have a risk mitigation group D you have problems with change Do you models address… June 23, 201639

40. The Ask Here are the types of relationships we anticipate having with the people in this room We have people around in the room [C4UC staff badges] who you can talk with today about working with us today or ask additions questions If you don’t have time today you can reach us by…. June 23, 201640

41. Projects flow before C4UC June 23, 201641

42. Projects flow with C4UC, stage 1 June 23, 201642