1. Czech National Foresight 2006-2007 Karel Klusacek Technology Centre AS CR, Prague National Foresight Programme „Poland 2020“ Seminar Warsaw 21-22 January 2020

2. 2 Introductory remarks Foresight is not, in particular, strictly defined as of its methodology, objectives, timing, budget,... Example given in this presentation corresponds to the situation in the Czech Republic and to the needs of main „client“ of the exercise - Czech Government Therefore – the ambition of my presentation is to give an overview of our experience as an example in which you can hopefully find some inspiration and also mistakes you may better to avoid

3. 3 Background information Project initiated by the Czech Government through Ministry of Education (responsible for R&D policy) Coordinated by the Technology Centre AS CR Project duration: June 2006 - June 2007 Main objective: formulation of national thematic research priorities Exploitation of results: 1.Guidelines for investments into R&D from EU Structural Funds (thematic orientation of large projects) 2.Setting of priorities for National Research Program III A problem-oriented multidisciplinary approach

4. 4 Two basic questions What are the key opportunities and challenges for the Czech Republic in the time horizon 2015-2020, to the solution of which research may contribute? What are the related key thematic research directions?

5. 5 Methodology A problem-oriented multidisciplinary approach consisting of several methodical components: analytical desk research multidisciplinary panel of experts (~ 70 experts, a wide range of scientific disciplines represented – from socio-economic fields to technical areas) exploratory and normative scenario building combination of a back-cast look (analyses) and forward looking scenarios generated by experts) final proposal of research priorities in cooperation with state administration (across several relevant ministries)

6. 6 Analytical desk research R&D Analysis: R&D output – scientific publications, patents Allocation of R&D funds Innovation potential of Czech regions Projects of R&D infrastructure considered for drawing financing from the EU Structural Funds through the Operational Programme R&D for Innovation (2008-2013) International cooperation of the Czech Republic in R&D especially in the EU Framework Programmes Structural Analysis of Czech Economy Analysis of Human Resources for R&D Review of Strategic R&D Documents

7. 7 Panel of experts One multidisciplinary panel ~ about 70 experts invited – a wide range of thematic specialization (socio-economic-life-ICT-health-engineering-....., academia, business) Four months of common work Three plenary sessions + small workshops A project-dedicated website to support communication Main objective: identifying key opportunities and challenges for the Czech Republic in the time horizon 2015-2020 Spontaneous cross-disciplinary cooperation of experts – challenges of future are not „simple“

8. 8 Panel of experts „two-scenarios“ method (1) experts asked to suggest key themes from their professional fields intensive discussion between experts  two plenary sessions combined with ad hoc small working groups – multidisciplinary approach  project-dedicated website with discussion section individual themes accessible for the whole panel – remarks, recommendations collected input edited by coordinating team + main author(s) of themes result: consolidated themes

9. 9 Panel of experts „two-scenarios“ method (2) exploratory scenario (considering several „possible futures“) formulated for each theme by author(s)  result: identified opportunities / problems estimation of probable situation in the Czech Republic in 2015-2020 regarding individual themes probable future state indicated opportunities and problems (threats)

10. 10 Panel of experts „two-scenarios“ method (3) themes sorted/discarded/grouped into thematic areas – intensive discussion with experts and state administration - different ministries („policy mix“) and R&D Council normative scenario outlined for each thematic area scenarios included suggestions what research fields should be supported to meet the objectives result: identified research priorities and accompanying measures „what to do and when“ for exploitation of future opportunities and minimisation (avoiding) of problems

11. 11 Current situation in the Czech Republic in international context Estimation of possible situation in CR in 2015-2020 A consequence: opportunities/ problems Exploitation of opportunities / solution (suppression) of problems Complex exploratory scenario (business as usual, disruptive changes,…)  1 scenario results Progressive normative scenario Combination of possible futures „what to do and when“ for exploitation of grouped opportunities (solution of problems) 2007 2015 - 2020 THEME 12345 Multidisciplinary Panel „two-scenarios“ method

12. 12 Normative scenarios Template Situation in the Czech Republic and abroad Description of the desired state in 2015-2020 Objectives to be achieved, and their justification Expected benefits Research to be supported so that the objectives are met Measures needed so that the objectives and the desired state in the future are achieved (exploitation of opportunities – suppression of threats)

13. 13 Hierarchy of the National Research Programme NRP TP TA T Energy Mechanical engineering Materials Molecular biology Medicine Information technology Sustainable development Security Socio-Economy Themes (T) are grouped in Thematic Areas (TA), which are further grouped in Thematic Priorities (TP)

14. 14 Using of results 1.Thematic priorities for National Research Programme 36 Thematic Areas were defined and grouped into four Thematic Priorities 2.A guide for investments into R&D infrastructure A guide for thematic orientation of new research capacities developed by using the EU Structural Funds (> € 5 billion in 2008 - 2013) 3.Formulation of accompanying (system) measures Supporting Measures (policy, legislation, national R&D system, human resources) specified Results still have to be refined and processed by policy- making bodies (state administration) in the first half of 2008

15. 15 Expected thematic distribution of investments into research infrastructure using Structural Funds in the Czech Republic in 2007-2013

16. 16 Expected geographical distribution of investments into research infrastructure using Structural Funds in the Czech Republic in 2007-2013

17. 17 Thematic distribution of key priorities National Research Programme Investments into R&D from EU structural funds Energy, mechanical engineering, Materials Power sources, materials, mechanical engineering Molecular biologyMolecular biology, medicine Information technology Sustainable development, security, socio-economic issues Sustainable development, security Links between financial instruments NRP ~ SF (1)

18. 18 Links between financial instruments NRP ~ SF (2) Comparison of thematic distribution of SF investments into R&D in the Czech Republic with thematic orientation of the NRP shows thematic links between both financial instruments Investment into research infrastructure from Structural Funds become operational in the next 3- 5 years which is matching the assumed launching of the NRP in 2009 National Research Programme is thus potentially capable to contribute in a coordinated manner jointly with Structural Funds to growth and employment in general and to boost R&D to achieve research excellence in particular thematic area

19. 19 Concluding remarks (1) Foresight is one of tools for strategic decisions is a structured future oriented thinking is not a magic method to fix everything is not a rigid method but flexible mix of tools selected for a particular task (priority setting, policy formulation,... ) Original objectives defined before the exercise plus newly generated opportunities to use results as a basic input for further strategic issues and needs generated after the exercise

20. 20 Concluding remarks (2) What is the most important precondition for successful foresight exercise? User (e.g. government) of results: understanding how foresight can contribute to strategic objectives clear formulation of needs realistic expectations clear commitment stability to survive for the whole exercise and a substantial part of implementation A strategic partnership between “foresighters” and user is the best option Existence of an user of results with a behavior of results’ owner

21. 21 Thank you for your attention klusacek@tc.cz