1. Setting NAPLAN DATA Targets Presented by Philip Holmes-Smith School Research Evaluation and Measurement Services

2. Overview

3. 1. Growth Targets

4. Two ways of setting targets The first (and most authentic) way of doing this is to express them in terms of our curriculum. In terms of VELS levels our target should be to grow students by one VELS level every two years (excluding Prep). The first (and most authentic) way of doing this is to express them in terms of our curriculum. In terms of VELS levels our target should be to grow students by one VELS level every two years (excluding Prep).

5. Two ways of setting “growth” targets A second, more realistic, way of setting growth targets is to express them in terms of what is currently occurring. (Assuming we accept that the VELS levels are desired outcomes for some hypothetical time in the future rather than what is currently the case). A second, more realistic, way of setting growth targets is to express them in terms of what is currently occurring. (Assuming we accept that the VELS levels are desired outcomes for some hypothetical time in the future rather than what is currently the case).

6. Two ways of setting “growth” targets For example, the last two cohorts of Yr3 – Yr5 students (i.e. the Yr3, 2006 to Yr5, 2008 cohort and the Yr3, 2007 to Yr5, 2009 cohort) have grown 0.69 and 0.77 of a VELS unit respectively for Reading or an average of about 0.73 of a VELS level. For example, the last two cohorts of Yr3 – Yr5 students (i.e. the Yr3, 2006 to Yr5, 2008 cohort and the Yr3, 2007 to Yr5, 2009 cohort) have grown 0.69 and 0.77 of a VELS unit respectively for Reading or an average of about 0.73 of a VELS level. This is short of the 0.875 VELS level growth expected by the curriculum*. This is short of the 0.875 VELS level growth expected by the curriculum*. *(Remember these students were tested in August as Yr3 students but in May as Yr5 students so even if student did grow a whole VELS level in two years, these students have been tested one term short of the full two years so I don’t expect 1.0 VELS level growth.) *(Remember these students were tested in August as Yr3 students but in May as Yr5 students so even if student did grow a whole VELS level in two years, these students have been tested one term short of the full two years so I don’t expect 1.0 VELS level growth.)

7. Two ways of setting “growth” targets On this basis we could set Reading VELS growth targets for the Yr3, 2008 to Yr5, 2010 cohort at about 0.83 of a VELS level.* On this basis we could set Reading VELS growth targets for the Yr3, 2008 to Yr5, 2010 cohort at about 0.83 of a VELS level.* * (Remember the current average growth of 0.73 of a VELS level is over seven terms – August to May – or about 0.1 of a VELS level per term. However, this year’s cohort will have been tested over eight terms – May to May – so another term’s growth on top of the current average results in an expect growth of 0.83 of a VELS level.) * (Remember the current average growth of 0.73 of a VELS level is over seven terms – August to May – or about 0.1 of a VELS level per term. However, this year’s cohort will have been tested over eight terms – May to May – so another term’s growth on top of the current average results in an expect growth of 0.83 of a VELS level.)

8. Growth Targets Theoretically we could apply the same logic to setting growth targets this year for 2008 – 2010 growth in terms of NAPLAN scale scores Theoretically we could apply the same logic to setting growth targets this year for 2008 – 2010 growth in terms of NAPLAN scale scores Unfortunately there are two problems. Unfortunately there are two problems. – First, if we set targets related to what we would expect based on the National curriculum then our problem is that we don’t yet have a National Curriculum and, therefore, the National scale does not yet represent progression points against a curriculum. – Second, if we instead set targets related to what we know to be the actual state growth between 2008 and 2010 then our problem is that we don’t yet know the 2010 results.

9. Growth Targets Nevertheless, we can still set some growth targets on an estimate of what the 2010 results will be. The problem then becomes – how do we best estimate 2010 results. Nevertheless, we can still set some growth targets on an estimate of what the 2010 results will be. The problem then becomes – how do we best estimate 2010 results. Three scenarios worth investigating: Three scenarios worth investigating: – Assume the changes in State averages between 2008 and 2009 are the beginning of a trend so the averages for 2010 will be estimated by continuing the 2008-2009 trend, – Assume that the 2010 State averages will be somewhere between the 2008 and 2009 averages. That is, the 2010 averages will be the average of the 2008 and 2009 averages, – Assume that the 2010 State averages will be the same as the 2009 averages,

10. Growth Targets The following two tables show the consequences under each of these assumptions. The following two tables show the consequences under each of these assumptions. – The first table shows the 2008 and 2009 State Averages for each Year Level (Yr 3, 5, 7 and 9) for each dimension (Reading, Writing, Spelling, Grammar & Punctuation and Numeracy) and the estimated State averages under each of the above assumptions.

11. Growth Targets

12. The second table shows the expected growth for the Yr3, 2008 to Yr5, 2010 cohort, the Yr5, 2008 to Yr7, 2010 cohort and the Yr7, 2008 to Yr9, 2010 cohort under each of the above assumptions. The second table shows the expected growth for the Yr3, 2008 to Yr5, 2010 cohort, the Yr5, 2008 to Yr7, 2010 cohort and the Yr7, 2008 to Yr9, 2010 cohort under each of the above assumptions. Growth Targets

13. Based on the previous table we could set the following targets and standards in terms of growth. Based on the previous table we could set the following targets and standards in terms of growth.

14. 2. National Band Targets

15. Using National Bands – Year 3 Yr 3 Reading Expected Level Need to reduce the number of students in these lower three bands Need to increase the number of students in these upper two bands

16. Using National Bands – Year 5 Yr 5 Reading Expected Level Need to reduce the number of students in these lower three bands Need to increase the number of students in these upper two bands

17. Using National Bands – Year 7 Yr 7 Reading Expected Level Need to reduce the number of students in these lower two bands Need to increase the number of students in these upper two bands

18. Using National Bands – Year 9 Yr 9 Reading Expected Level Need to reduce the number of students in these lower two bands Need to increase the number of students in these upper two bands