1. Meeting demand and reducing greenhouse gas emissions by sustainable intensification in agriculture: Increasing beef consumption could lower greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil if decoupled from deforestation (nature clim. change) Jan 2016, Bristol University, UK Rafael Silva, SRUC and The University of Edinburgh

2. 22 External costs CH4 ~15% of anthropogenic GHG worldwide ~20% of anthropogenic GHG (enteric fermentation) Source: Adapted from National Emissions Inventory (Brazil, 2012)

3. 33 Many authors have suggested managing demand … Others: Fiala et al. (2008), Hedenus et al. (2013), Popp et al, (2010) But they assume fixed emissions per kg of meat …

4. 44 Consequential LCA In reality by changing demand, production systems are affected. A cattle grazing system example: Change in demand (%) ¾ of organic matter below ground (brachiaria grasses)

5. 55 Fig. 1: Brazilian Central Cerrado (green) Cerrado: The Brazilian savannah Responds for at least 34% of national beef production Fig.2: Cerrado baseline demand (DBAU) and varied demand projections that correspond to percentage variation by 2030 in relation to DBAU.

6. 66 Methods We used a multi-period linear programming model EAGGLE model (Economic Analysis of Greenhouse Gases for Livestock Emissions (Oliveira Silva et al., 2015). -complete production cycle (cow-calf, stocking and finishing) on a beef farm. -It allocates farm resources optimally to meet demand projections while maximizing profit. -In this analysis, the Cerrado beef production system is treated as a single farm. -Emissions accounted: Cattle direct emissions (tier 2 IPCC), LCA from inputs and farm operations, N-fertilizers, SOC emissions and deforestation.

7. 77 Deforestation and Demand Decoupled Livestock-Deforestation (DLD) scenario: The same deforestation projections irrespective of consumption levels. Coupled Livestock-Deforestation (CLD) scenario: Deforestation projections are sensitive to variations in beef demand.

8. 88 Sensitivity analysis: DLD scenario Percentage changes in accumulated emissions (2006-2030) as a function of demand scenarios under DLD.

9. 99 Sensitivity analysis: CLD scenario Percentage changes in accumulated emissions (2006-2030) as a function of demand scenarios under CLD.

10. 10 But soil organic carbon saturates … Long term GHG emissions analysis for the demand scenarios. (A) annual net GHG emissions and (B) percentage changes in accumulated GHGs.

11. 11 Conclusions -In the case of the Brazilian Cerrado, reduced consumption could actually remove the incentive for grassland improvement and therefore lead to higher emissions. -Shifting to less meat-dependent diets would help curb climate change, but it is important to understand the nature of different production systems before concluding that reduced consumption will have the same effects in all systems.

12. 12 Thanks! Rafael.silva@sruc.ac.uk