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Planning for climate change in the Pacific Northwest.

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Presentation on theme: "Planning for climate change in the Pacific Northwest."— Presentation transcript:

1 Planning for climate change in the Pacific Northwest

2 Outline Terminology: mitigation vs. adaptation Assessing vulnerability to climate fluctuations Spatial scale of planning for climate change Who’s preparing? Planning in the PNW

3 Terminology Mitigation Adaptation

4 Mitigation activities Focus on reducing emissions of greenhouse gases Responding to Climate Change: Mitigation and Adaptation Adaptation activities Focus on developing the capacity to manage the change that occurs as mitigation strategies are debated and enacted. Climate Impacts Group.

5 Significant climate change impacts are projected, and the impacts expected within the next few decades are largely unavoidable. Decisions with long-term impacts are being made every day. Today’s choices will shape tomorrow’s vulnerabilities. Significant time is required to motivate and develop adaptive capacity, and to implement changes. In many (if not most) cases, it will cost more to retrofit for climate resilience than to build for it in the first place. (And there may be benefits…) Why Adaptive Planning?....

6 “No regrets” strategies Provides benefits now with or without climate change (e.g., water conservation program) “Low regrets” strategies Provide climate change benefits for little additional cost or risk (e.g., adding 10% capacity rather than 5%) “Win-win” strategies Reduce climate change impacts while providing other environmental, social, or economic benefits (e.g., wetlands protection) Planning for Uncertainty Look to implement

7 Outline Terminology: mitigation vs. adaptation Assessing vulnerability to climate fluctuations Spatial scale of planning for climate change Who’s preparing? Planning in the PNW

8 Vulnerability Assessment Identify outcome variables of concern … vulnerability of what? over what timescale? Identify stressors of concern vulnerability to what? Full vulnerability assessment adds consideration of the context, values & objectives Vogel & O’Brien 2004

9 Components of Climate Vulnerability Exposure the degree to which a system experiences a fluctuation in climate Characteristics of climate fluctuation: Magnitude, areal extent, frequency, duration, suddenness

10 Components of Climate Vulnerability Sensitivity the degree to which a system changes in response to changes in as external conditions (e.g., the climate) Influential system characteristics: Stability, flexibility, diversity, scale

11 Components of Climate Vulnerability Adaptability to what degree are adjustments possible in practices, processes, or structures of systems in response to projected or actual changes in climate?

12 Components of Climate Vulnerability Exposure x Sensitivity – Adaptability = Vulnerability

13 The Outcome…

14 How do we reduce vulnerability? reduce the exposure of the system to climate fluctuations or their impacts (e.g., by restricting development in a flood plain) reduce the system’s sensitivity (e.g., by requiring homes in the flood plain to be built on stilts increase the adaptability of the system to deal with the effects of climate fluctuations (by providing education about climate risks to encourage relocation or reducing insurance payouts to flooded residents for rebuilding their homes) Exposure x Sensitivity – Adaptability = Vulnerability

15 Building Capacity and Delivering Action Building Adaptive Capacity Addressing institutional, legal, cultural, technical, fiscal and other barriers Activities can be taken independent of specific climate projections Delivering Adaptive Actions Implementing actions to address specific climate vulnerabilities Choice and timing of some actions may depend on specifics of the climate projections Two-Pronged Approach:

16 Characteristics of Adaptation ongoing process (embedded examples of existing adaptations to climate) adaptation = both a policy response and a spontaneous adjustment occurs not in isolation but within complex milieu of ecological, economic, social & institutional circumstances not always successful  maladaptation occurs because of other social goals, often short-term

17 The importance of preparation

18 What defines success? Define “successful” adaptation survival in largely the same form as it exists today (stability) continued ability to provide the same or similar system functions over the long term Do we want PNW forests to provide harvestable timber or to support biological diversity? I Do we want homes near today’s current flood plain to be protected in their current locations or for there to be no homes there to worry about protecting? Define the temporal and spatial scales for evaluation Criteria for success vary with the spatial scale of evaluation and are weighted and valued differently by different interest groups (Adger et al. 2005). Do we want the PNW to continue providing harvestable timber (or supporting biodiversity) over the next 10, 100, or 1000 years? Indicators calculated at one scale may hide substantial variations in adaptive capacity at another (Adger et al. 2005b). Are we interested in the continued existence of salmon somewhere in the world, or the survival of specific stocks within specific watersheds in the PNW? Efficiency, effectiveness, equity & legitimacy… (Adger et al. 2005).

19 Why assess vulnerability? To understand actual implications of climate change To provide a do-nothing benchmark for evaluating response options Identify priority areas for action (high exposure, high sensitivity, low adaptatibility) Guide decision makers in planning (via identification & evaluation of adaptation options)

20 Outline Terminology: mitigation vs. adaptation Assessing vulnerability to climate fluctuations Spatial scale of planning for climate change Who’s preparing? Planning in the PNW

21 www.cses.washington.edu/cig/ Global warming impacts on United States: Common concerns… drought extreme events human health forests agriculture sea level rise/coastal impacts loss of biodiversity … (NAST 2000)

22 www.cses.washington.edu/cig/ Climate Impacts Group http://www.yakima.net/ Climate Impacts Group Linda Brubaker, Chris Earle (UW) What makes region-specific impacts unique?

23 What causes variability in impacts? Heterogeneity of: climate change climatic sensitivities ecosystems and natural resources human alteration of natural systems degree of human dependence on natural systems human ability to cope...

24 The regional textures of environmental and social processes require a regional (or finer-scale) approach to assessing and responding to climate impacts. Lessons Learned

25 Outline Terminology: mitigation vs. adaptation Assessing vulnerability to climate fluctuations Spatial scale of planning for climate change Who’s preparing? Planning in the PNW

26 http://www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/tools/adapt.asp

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32 Outline Terminology: mitigation vs. adaptation Assessing vulnerability to climate fluctuations Spatial scale of planning for climate change Who’s preparing? Planning in the PNW

33 Local preparation for climate change Seattle – City Light, Public Utilities, Port King County – in-house, state-wide, nationally Columbia River Basin - US Army Corps of Engineers, Bonneville Power Administration, etc. NOAA – guidance for ESA decisions under climate change City of Olympia – sea level rise and increased river runoff Olympic National Park/National Forest – vulnerability assessment/adaptation planning Washington State…

34 The foundation for WA’s efforts to address both climate change mitigation and adaptation is Exec Order 07-02, signed February 7, 2007

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36 Supporting WA State Climate Needs: Decision Support Support for the WA Preparation/Adaptation Working Groups (PAWGs) (July-Dec 2007). o Participated in monthly meetings o Provided technical guidance on climate impacts science and adaptation o Reviewed PAWG recommendations Released February 2008

37 www.cses.washington.edu/cig/ Washington State PAWG Recs Broad range of recommendations related to: Enhancing emergency preparedness and response; Incorporating climate change and its impacts into planning and decision-making processes; Restoring and protecting natural systems and natural resources; Building institutional capacity and knowledge to address impacts associated with climate change; More effectively managing and sharing best available data; and Educating, informing and engaging landowners, public officials, citizens and others.

38 Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment o Funded by the WA State Legislature under HB 1303, §404 o First comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on WA o Products include final report as well as comprehensive data sets “An absolutely groundbreaking study….adds urgency and specificity to the range of impacts that we will have to be concerned with.” -- Jay Manning, Director, WA Dept of Ecology, (2.11.09, Weekday, KUOW 94.9 FM ) Supporting WA State Climate Needs: Decision Support (cont’d)

39 Peer-reviewed scientific publications, white papers, fact sheets, and other documents on climate impacts Supporting WA State Climate Needs: Decision Support (cont’d)

40 Motivation for writing grew out of October 2005 King County climate change conference Motivation for writing grew out of October 2005 King County climate change conference Written by the CIG and King County, WA in association with ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability Written by the CIG and King County, WA in association with ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability Focused on the process (not a sector), and written for a national audience Focused on the process (not a sector), and written for a national audience More than 2,000 hard copies and electronic copies distributed globally More than 2,000 hard copies and electronic copies distributed globally

41 a b c e Breaking Down Sensitivity…

42 …and Adaptability

43 King County, WA Replacing 57+ “short span” bridges with wider spans Replacing undersized culverts Incorporating low impact development techniques to reduce stormwater runoff Revamping county levee system Bringing water reuse plant online Evaluating impacts of sea level rise on wastewater infrastructure

44 City of Olympia, WA $150,000 allocated to start on climate change adaptation strategy Installing 2 GPS station downtown to better assess subsidence and uplift in the downtown area Implementing Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) technology to improve topographical elevation information (over aerial photography) for more accurate hydrologic modeling and vulnerability analysis A hydraulic computer model will be developed to better evaluate the interactions between stormwater and streamflow

45 City of Olympia, WA cont’d Relocating primary water supply from surface water source to higher elevation groundwater source. Developing a 3-10 year work plan to implement longer- term adaptation actions such as changes in building codes, FEMA flood hazard zone, and utility infrastructure. Partnership building 2009-2010 activities include:  Evaluating current high tides and Deschutes River flooding  Assessing potential impacts on drinking water aquifers.

46 Columbia River Basin Water Supply Development Program o Funded by the State Legislature under HB 2860 o CIG working with Dept. of Ecology to develop a comprehensive hydrologic database of climate change scenarios to support long-range water planning in the Columbia River Basin o Database will include wide variety of future climate change scenarios for ~300 locations Supporting WA State Climate Needs: Decision Support (cont’d)

47 Snake River Basin Willamette River Basin Mainstem Columbia River Basin Yakima River Basin Upper Columbia River Basin Kootenai River Basin Salmon River Basin HydrologicData 40+ realizations of future streamflow variability at each location ~300 Sites


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