1. Pennsylvania Electric Supply GHG Forecast 1 Victoria Clark Stockholm Environment Institute - US Center 5/29/09

2.  Objectives  Data Sources  Assumptions  Methodology  Results  Uncertainties  Conclusions 2 Outline

3.  Establish GHG emissions from the PA electric supply sector in the Base Year (i.e., 2007)  Establish GHG emissions from the PA electric supply sector for the analysis period for mitigation options (i.e., 2008 – 2030)  Quantify GHG emissions on both a consumption and production basis  Identify key uncertainties and clarify outstanding issues requiring stakeholder input 3 Objectives

4.  Electricity Consumption – Sector-specific sales from Joe Sherrick and Blain Loper  PA Load Forecast – PJM Load Forecast Report, Jan. 2008  PA AEPS requirements – PUC EPO Report, Aug. 2008  2007 net generation and primary fuel use for PA power stations from EIA 906/920 federal database  Regional power pool characteristics from EIA’s AEO2009 modeling outputs using NEMS  Energy Conversion, Oxidation, and GHG emission Factors – US EPA 2003  Global Warming Potentials – IPCC 2 nd Report Data Sources 4

5. Assumptions - PA Electricity Demand (GWh) Key Assumptions20072030 Growth rate (%/yr) Method: sector-specific sales from 2014- 2030 extrapolated based on 2009-2013 trend Includes impact from all new DSM and DG resources from RPS 145,392191,0221.19% 5

6. Assumptions - AEPS Total Requirements Alternative energy requirements (% of sales)200720212030 Tier 1 (includes solar PV and wood products)1.5%8.0% Tier 24.2%10.0% Total5.7%18.0% 6

7. Assumptions - AEPS Breakdown 7

8. Assumptions – Planned capacity additions and retirements (MW) 8

9. Assumptions – Net generation by utilities/non-utilities subject to Act 129 (GWh) 9

10. Assumptions – Project generation by utilities/non-utilities 10

11.  Heat Rates 11 Power plant heat rate (Btu/kWh) 20072030Growth Rate (%/yr) Coal9,9799,570-0.18% Nuclear10,414 0.00% Natural Gas7,7437,475-0.15% Oil11,30511,7180.16% Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)9,908 0.00% Biomass10,500 0.00% Landfill Gas (LFG)15,583 0.00% Wind10,320 0.00% Hydroelectric10,320 0.00% Transmission and Distribution (T&D) Losses (%)6.62%6.60%-0.02%  Fuel quality  Coal & Oil: For 2008-2030 assume equal to estimated 2007 shares  Plant parasitic load  On-site Losses assumed to be equal to the MAAC region for 2007-2030 (based on EIA’s AEO2008),

12.  In-state sales projection incorporates savings from DSM and DG  Gross Generation –net generation adjusted upward to account for on-site parasitic load  Electricity Exports – difference between total PA generation and PA generation needed to meet in-state demand  Primary Energy Use – product of annual gross generation and average annual heat rate by plant type  CO 2 e emissions – product of primary energy (mmbtu), emission factor (tGHG/mmbtu) and GWP (dimensionless)  CO 2 e emissions (exports) – used PA system average 12

13. Fuel Gross Generation (GWh) Fuel use (Trillion Btu)Heat rate (Btu/KWh) Emissions (MMtCO 2 e) Coal117,2771,1709,979108.07 Natural Gas15,3891197,7436.39 Other Gases1036,0260.00 Petroleum1,2601411,3051.08 Nuclear77,90281110,4140.00 Hydroelectric2,2512210,3200.00 Geothermal0010,5000.00 Solar/PV0010,3200.00 Wind473510,3200.00 MSW1,607169,9080.11 Landfill gas193315,5830.16 Biomass0010,5000.00 Other wastes0010,5000.00 Pumped storage-728010,5000.00 Exports59,924600 32.27 Total215,6262,161 115.81 13

14. 14 Results – Gross Generation from PA Power Stations (215,626 GWh), 2007

15. 15 Results – CO2e emission from PA Power Stations (115.81 MMTCO2e), 2007

16. 20072030Growth rate (%/yr) To meet PA electricity demand 155,701204,608 1.19% Exports to neighboring region 59,92480,360 1.28% Total 215,626284,968 1.22% 16 Results – Gross generation from PA Power Stations (GWh), 2007-2030

17. 17 Results – Breakdown in gross generation from PA Power Stations (GWh), 2007-2030

18. 18 Results – CO2e emissions from PA Power Stations (GWh), 2007-2030 20072030Growth rate (%/yr) To meet PA electricity demand 83.5491.120.38% Exports to neighboring region 32.2735.090.36% Total 115.81126.210.37%

19. PA DEPCCS Difference Electricity Production [GWh] 274,795268,208-2.4% Electricity Consumption [GWh] 186,860191,7382.6% Electricity Production [MMTCO2e) 153.77114.75-25.4% 19  Forecasted GHG emissions in 2025 are about 25% less than the PA DEP estimate  Difference is likely due to sales forecast and the role of renewable energy, DSM and DG Results – Comparison to DEP GHG forecast, 2025

20.  EIA Data – All Power stations included, not just those that are required to comply with Act 129  In-State Production and Exports  Statewide fuel mix, emission factors, conversion factors (heat input to electricity output)  Resource Shares for penetration of renewable energy, DSM, and distributed generation (DG) 20

21.  Preliminary analysis concludes GHG emissions of 126 MMtCO 2 e for total PA production- based generation in 2030  Secondary analysis will be based on Subcommittee input ◦ Specific Generation Data from Act-129 Power Stations ◦ AEPS breakdown by fuel type ◦ Statewide fuel mix, emission factors, conversion factors specific to PA power generators ◦ Assumptions about capacity additions 2012-2030 and retirements 2007-2030 21