1. Skills Assessments June 2016 Richard Whitcomb Skills Planning

2. Skills Assessments What are Regional Skills Assessments (RSAs)? Why have we refreshed RSAs and what changes have we made? How will SDS use them to inform skills investment? What does the refresh data tell us?

3. What are RSAs? A single, agreed evidence base on which to base future investment in skills, built up from existing evidence Partnership between SDS, SE, SFC and SLAED Launched November 2014 – SE Operating Area Purpose: Support SFC and Regional Colleges in negotiating Regional Outcome Agreements Provide a framework for aligning SDS investment in individuals and businesses Assist partners in planning their strategic investment in skills Highlight gaps in national and regional skills evidence

4. Why refresh the RSAs and what changes have been made? TERU review of RSAs completed summer 2015 Resulted in a set of recommendations – short and longer term Short Term – Data Refresh –More user friendly data matrix with refreshed and additional datasets –Regions now align with the Regional Outcome Agreement areas – 13 instead of 11 –Additional reports at various different spatial levels including Local Authority, City Deal, and pan Scotland –Shorter, concise reports summarising key messages

5. Regional Outcome Agreement Area Local Authorities Covered 1Aberdeen City and ShireAberdeen City, Aberdeenshire 2AyrshireEast Ayrshire, North Ayrshire, South Ayrshire 3Scottish Borders 4Dumfries and Galloway 5Edinburgh and LothiansEast Lothian, Edinburgh, Midlothian 6Fife 7Forth ValleyClackmannanshire, Falkirk, Stirling 8GlasgowEast Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Glasgow 9Highlands and IslandsArgyll and Bute, Eilean Siar, Highland, Moray, Orkney Islands, Shetland Islands 10LanarkshireEast Dunbartonshire, North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire 11TaysideAngus, Dundee, Perth and Kinross 12WestEast Renfrewshire, Inverclyde, Renfrewshire, West Dunbartonshire 13West Lothian Regional Outcome Areas 2015

6. City Deal RegionLocal Authorities 1 Aberdeen City and Shire Aberdeen City Aberdeenshire 2 Glasgow and Clyde Valley Glasgow North Lanarkshire South Lanarkshire East Renfrewshire East Dunbartonshire West Dunbartonshire Renfrewshire Inverclyde 3 Edinburgh and South East Scotland Edinburgh City Midlothian East Lothian West Lothian Fife Scottish Borders 4 Tayside Dundee Angus Perth and Kinross 5 Inverness and HighlandsHighland City Deal Regions 2015

7. What the RSAs cover…..(1) Economic performance GVA, productivity, business base, earnings, infrastructure Profile of the workforce Employment by sector, occupation People and skills Population, labour market, qualifications Deprivation Education and Training (MAs) Education and Training Schools, FE, HE Skills mismatches

8. What the RSAs cover….. (2) ThemeContentData Sources Economic Performance  Gross Value Added (GVA)  Productivity  Earnings  Business Base  ONS Regional Account  Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings  UK Business Count  General Register For Scotland  Scottish Enterprise  SG BERD Database Profile of the Workforce  Industrial Structure  Regional Selective Assistance  Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES)  SG Growth Sector Database  Scottish Enterprise  Annual Population Survey People & Skills Supply  Population  Population Projections  Labour Market  Qualifications  Mid-Year Population Estimates  General Register Office for Scotland  Annual Population Survey  2011 Census  Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD)  SDS  DWP  Claimant Count  SG NEET Database  BRES & Working Futures Deprivation  Inequality Data  SIMD  Scottish Household Survey  ONS Working & Workless Households  SG School Meals Dataset Education & Training (MAs)  Modern Apprenticeships  Employability Fund  SDS Education & Training (FE/HE)  School Provision  College Provision  University Provision  Graduates  SG Pupil Census & Projections  SFC  2011 Census  HESA Graduate Destinations Survey Skills Mismatches  Recruitment & Work Readiness  Skills Gaps  2013 UKCES Survey Employment & Skills Outlook  Sectoral Outlook  Occupational Structure and Replacement Demand  Demand for Qualifications  Working Futures, 2012-2022

9. New data on deprivation and more detail by age, disability and gender indicators New data on school-level provision and emphasis on young people Migration data and travel to work/study patterns New data on claimant counts And employment projections Designed to reflect new policy developments, including ‘inequality’ in the new Economic Strategy And the latest socio-economic trends….including major infrastructure developments What do the current RSAs now include?

10. SDS use of RSAs National Training Programmes, including MA expansion plans Foundation and Advanced Apprenticeships Careers Information Advice and Guidance Employer engagement Digital Services Skills Investment Planning – Sectors and Regions

11. How the matrix works (1) There are 7 ‘tabs’ to the data matrix – one for each part of the RSA Specifically, the 7 tabs are: –economic performance, –profile of the workforce, –people and skills, –deprivation, –education and training – MA, –education and training - FE/HE, –skills mismatches Each tab has data on each indicator in the 2015 matrix and for different geographic areas (City Deal area, RSA and local authority)

12. How the matrix works (2) https://www.skillsdevelopmentscotland.co.uk/what-we- do/partnerships/regional-skills-assessments/https://www.skillsdevelopmentscotland.co.uk/what-we- do/partnerships/regional-skills-assessments/

13. Example: Economic Performance Drop down box to select area (“summary statistics for”) Click on link for relevant dataset e.g. total GVA (EP1) Gives actual data on area, Scotland and GB/UK (where applicable) comparators, and accompanying chart (see example next slide) Summary Statistics for:West (RSA) GVATotal GVAGVA by SectorIndex of GVA ProductivityGVA per Worker Earnings Median Workplace Earnings Median Resident Earnings Business Base Number of Businesses Business Density Businesses by Sector Businesses by Size Band Business Births SE Account Managed Companies Business Expenditure on R&D

14. Example: Economic Performance (EP1) EP1. Total GVA (£m), 2002-13 West (RSA)Scotland 2002£6,749£77,940 2003£7,160£82,863 2004£7,128£88,038 2005£7,600£92,866 2006£8,114£99,551 2007£8,258£103,028 2008£8,671£108,130 2009£8,381£108,660 2010£8,421£108,344 2011£8,507£111,535 2012£8,240£113,819 2013£8,508£117,116 EP1. Annual Growth Rate, 2003-13 West (RSA)Scotland 20036.1%6.3% 2004-0.4%6.2% 20056.6%5.5% 20066.8%7.2% 20071.8%3.5% 20085.0% 2009-3.3%0.5% 20100.5%-0.3% 20111.0%2.9% 2012-3.1%2.0% 20133.3%2.9% Average annual growth rate 2010-20130.3%2.6%

15. Data Matrix Features Link at the top of each table takes user to the actual data-set Allows look-up for every local authority area in Scotland, and by RSA area and by City Deal region Many data-sets are time series data allowing analysis of trends over time Links in the raw data sheets return user to the summary tabs Explanation of indicators and data sources provided throughout

16. Example: Education & Training Example of ‘education & training (FE/HE)’ tab This is what user sees on screen Example is for Renfrewshire LA (drop down allows any LA) Each link is for a specific indicator Example of school roll numbers (ET10 next….) Summary Statistics for:Renfrewshire Corresponding RSA Regions:1West (RSA) Comparator RSA Region:1West (RSA)2.. Corresponding City Deal Region:Glasgow City Deal3.. School Provision Current School Roll Numbers for Senior Phase Projected School Roll Numbers for Senior Phase Travel to Study Method Travel to Study Distance College ProvisionAgeGenderSIMD Full-Time Provision by Subject Part-Time Provision by Subject College Provision of FE/HE Higher EducationTotal HE Students Home Area of HE Students HE Students by AgeHE Students by GenderHE Students by Subject GraduatesLevel of StudyEmployment Status Employment by Occupation Employment by Industry

17. Example: Current School Nos for Senior Phase (ET10) ET10. Current school roll numbers for senior phase pupils, 2014 Renfrewshi reWest (RSA) Glasgow City DealScotland S11,6295,79717,15049,302 S21,7425,93617,42450,186 S31,8016,14417,93751,233 S41,8626,22918,17052,167 S51,7395,96016,93347,307 S61,3244,83912,73434,220 Total Pupils10,09734,905100,348284,762 % school roll numbers for senior phase pupils, 2014 Renfrewshi reWest (RSA) Glasgow City DealScotland S116%17% S217% 18% S318% S418% S517% S613%14%13%12%

18. Some data highlights from the skills assessment

19. Economic Performance Productivity and business growth increases over the last 5 years, although below the UK rate of increase GVA per worker was £47,000 in 2013, 2% higher than in 2012, but 9% below the UK average of £51,000 GVA per worker in Scotland has increased by 18% between 2006 and 2013, slightly higher than the 17% increase the UK. Wide variation within Scotland - £67,900 in Aberdeen City and Shire (oil and gas), £64,300 in Edinburgh and the Lothians (public sector, financial services) to £32,500 in the Borders and £33,200 in Fife In 2014, professional, scientific and technical businesses sector (15% of the total), retail (11%) and construction (9%) were largest sectors There were over 21,000 business births in Scotland in 2013, the highest number over the last ten years

20. Profile of the Workforce (1) Total employment recovered strongly in Scotland between 2012 and 2014 and are above 2009 levels Strong employment growth in Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire (9% growth 2009-2014) - and above average in Edinburgh and Lothians (3%), Forth Valley (3%) and Fife (2%). Total employment still below pre-recession levels in Ayrshire (-3%), West Lothian (-2%), Glasgow (-2%), Tayside (-1%) and West (-1%).

21. Profile of the Workforce (2) 16% of Scotland’s workforce, 408,300 employees in employment, is in the health sector, higher than for Great Britain (13%). Production (260,200, 10%), retail (253,600, 10%), business administration and support services (196,500, 8%) and education (190,500, 7%) are all significant employment sectors

22. Profile of the Workforce (3) The occupational profile broadly mirrors that of the UK Greatest increases in the professional occupations since 2004, increasing by nearly a quarter (24%). Caring, leisure and other service occupations have increased by 20%. Scotland has lost 19% of operative employment, faster than the 10% fall across the UK)

23. People and Skills (1) In 2012/2013 there were 210,300 ILO unemployed (8%). This fell to to 197,800 (8%) in 2013/2014 and to 167,100 (6%) in 2014/2015 (= to UK) In 2015 there were 16,498 unemployed young people aged 16 to 24 in the region, down by 34% from the previous year The greatest falls were in Edinburgh and Lothians (-55%), Borders (- 54%) and Dumfries and Galloway (-47%). Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire was the only region to experience an increase (+6%) In all, 15% of all those aged 16-64 in Scotland are work-limited through disability, affecting 519,000, equal to the UK rate By region, this is lowest in Edinburgh and Lothians (11%) and Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire (12%), and highest in Ayrshire (18%), Dumfries and Galloway, Glasgow and Lanarkshire (all 17%)

24. People and Skills (2) School leavers entering Higher Education in 2013/2014 was 39% of the total, up from 36% in 2012/2013. Highest in the West (49%), Glasgow (43%), West Lothian (42%) Those entering Further Education has remained constant at around a quarter. At 25%, the proportion entering employment is notably lower than the 29% in 2007/08. In all, 92% entered a positive destination The percentages entering a positive destination are highest in Highlands and Islands and Borders (both 94%) and lowest in Dumfries and Galloway, Fife and Glasgow (all 90%) 9% of those aged 16-64 years in Scotland have no qualifications, equal to the UK rate. This is highest in Glasgow, Dumfries and Galloway and Ayrshire (13%)

25. Deprivation 13% of households in Scotland have average household earnings of less than £10,000 per year. This is highest in Glasgow (19%), Stirling (19%), Orkney (18%), Inverclyde (18%) and Dumfries and Galloway (17%) 20% of households in Scotland are workless, compared to 17% in the UK. This equates to 361,558 households The proportion is highest in North Ayrshire (32%), followed by Glasgow City (30%) and West Dunbartonshire (28%)

26. Education and Training (MA/EF) There were 25,255 MA starts supported by SDS in 2014/2015. 60% were male and 40% female. The most popular frameworks for starts were in hospitality (2,845), business and administration (2,535) and retail (2,055). Some remain gender dominated e.g. construction and freight logistics (male) and social services (children and young people), social services and healthcare (female). In others (accounting, retail and hospitality,) there is more of a gender balance. 53% of starts 16 and 19 years of age, 27% were aged 20-24 years and 20% were over 25. There were 17,340 EF starts in 2014/2015. Just under two thirds of these (63%) were male, and 37% were female Within this, there were 3,025 starts on the Certificate of Work Readiness (CWR), involving up to 1,220 employers

27. Education and Training - Schools, FE and HE (1) There were 284,762 pupils enrolled at secondary school across Scotland in 2014, 29% of whom were S5 and S6. The school roll is projected by 2% to 2018. 257,157 students (headcount) were studying in Scotland in 2013/2014. 82% of this provision is at FE level and 12% is at HE level (by headcount) and 72% FE and 28% HE (by SUMS). By headcount, 39% of college students were aged 25+, 32% were aged between 16-19 years and 17% were aged 20-24. In terms of full-time courses measured by SUMS, care (12%), engineering, hairdressing and beauty and business management and admin (all 10%) were the most taken up. For part-time courses, again measured by SUMS, care and engineering were the most taken up courses (both 17%), followed by construction (11%) and special programmes (10%).

28. Education and Training - Schools, FE and HE (2) In all, 226,891 students (headcount) were studying at the Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) across Scotland in 2013/2014. In 2013/14, almost two thirds (64%) of students were from Scotland, 13% from elsewhere in the UK and the remaining 24% being international students. 25% of students studying are from their region of study, and this is highest in the Highlands and Islands (82%) and lowest in Fife (7%). 34% of higher education students are aged over 25. This is highest in Highlands and Islands (51%) and lowest in the Borders (14%). Business and administrative studies (13%), subjects allied to medicine (19%), biological sciences (9%) and engineering and social sciences (both 8%) were the most popular courses

29. Skills Mismatches Two thirds of employers in the region had recruited 2-3 years prior to the 2013 employer survey. 85% of HE leavers and 78% of FE leavers are deemed work-ready by employers in Scotland. This is 65% for school leavers. 15% of employers were likely to report vacancies, and this was 6% for hard to fill vacancies and 4% for skills shortages vacancies. Skills gaps are most likely in elementary occupations, operatives, sales and customer services and skilled trades

30. Projections Population is forecast to rise by 217,550 over the 2014-2024 period, an increase of 4% (5% UK). Population growth is projected to be highest in Edinburgh and the Lothians (11%) and Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire (9%) There is growth projected in all regions, with the exceptions of Ayrshire, Borders and the West region The largest proportionate increases in Scotland are expected amongst those of retirement age, where there is anticipated to be a 28% increase in those aged over 75 and a 16% increase in those aged 65-74 The largest employment growth over the period forecast in information technology (32%), health and social work (17%), real estate (14%) and electricity and gas, finance and insurance and construction (all 13%)

31. Sectoral Outlook Greatest employment increases over next 10 years are expected to come from information technology and health and social work ( Forecast net employment change 2012-2022 (Glasgow & Clyde Valley) Source: Working Futures 2012-2022

32. Occupational Structure and Replacement Demand Expansion and replacement demand by occupation 2012-2022 (Glasgow & CV) Source: Working Futures 2012-2022 All figures have been rounded to the nearest 100 and percentage calculations have been carried out on the unrounded figures

33. Demand for Qualifications 2012-2022 Source: Working Futures 2012-2022 All figures have been rounded to the nearest 100 and percentage calculations have been carried out on the unrounded figures

34. The next skills assessments Currently refresh being commissioned Will include new forecasting work And new data (e.g. participation measure) Available from the autumn 2016 – regions, followed by City Deal regions and local authority areas With even greater emphasis on key summary points and messages

35. Richard Whitcomb Interim Project Manager Skills Development Scotland richard.whitcomb@context-economics.co.uk Liz Byrne Adviser, Skills Investment Planning Skills Development Scotland Liz.Byrne@sds.co.uk Further Information