1. Dominant thinking on international development: What have the past 36 months told us about 5 assumptions? Lawrence Haddad Institute of Development Studies at the Research Council of Norway October 25, 2011

2. What is special about the past 36 months? Has systemic crisis has become the new normal? Volatility Fragility Incertitude

3. Volatility?

4. Fragility?

5. Incertitude?

6. Why ask whether current development thinking is fit for purpose? Crises – Rich country origin - obligation – Systemic in origin – not idiosyncratic – Impacts - global and lasting – Unforeseen in terms of “ferocity”- QEII Not clear if we are any less vulnerable to future shocks Some political space for change, although that is shrinking

7. The 5 Assumptions 1.economic growth is typically a good thing for long term poverty reduction 2.the West is the starting point for thinking about international development 3.economics should be the dominant discipline in the policy discourse 4.Collier’s bottom billion is where international development cooperation should be focussed 5.the international development evidence base is growing stronger

8. 1. Economic growth is typically a good thing for long term poverty reduction India: 1993-2005

9. Growth: highly variable effects on Poverty – Growth by sector – Growth by inequality – Growth by region – Growth by governance regime Impacts on ecological footprints Wellbeing But there are choices

10. 2. the West is the starting point for thinking about international development 1.Assumptions about policies to pursue, e.g. kicking away ladder 2.Assumptions about goals and aspirations e.g. role of conflict 3.Assumptions about how things work e.g. how health systems work 4.Assumptions about universal behaviours e.g. For change and continuity? For rationalism and religion?

11. 3. Economics should be the dominant discipline in the policy discourse Krugman: don’t mistake beauty for truth Skidelsky: irreducible uncertainties Collier: treatment of future generations Wade: neoclassical monoculture means we are not methods resilient within economics but Halsey-Rogers: mostly economists working outside the development industry who are divorced from reality

12. 4: Collier’s bottom billion is where international development cooperation should be focussed

13. 5. The international development evidence base is growing stronger We could not measure the impact of the crisis on poverty Is internal validity crowding out external validity? How to bring in non-typical knowledge? Identified with developmentNot identified with development Expert 1.How to integrate different perspectives from around the world? 2. How to engage with Business; Diplomacy, Defence; Faiths; Legal General 3.New roles for civil society? e.g. social accountability 4.How to enhance collective capabilities for change? e.g.underwhelming final chapters

14. Conclusions Last 36 months an especially good time to test assumptions Growth—view it like technology West is best—hard to escape, need mechanisms to avoid the original sin Economics—privileged position means checks and balances Development cooperation– poor countries or poor people? Evidence—standing on or slipping off the shoulders of giants? Need innovations.