1. Fire Weather 2016 NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard DAVID GOMBERG Fire Weather Program Manager ERIC BOLDT Warning Coordination Meteorologist Springs Fire – May 2013 (Photo by Scott Sukup, NWS)

2. NWS Contact Info David Gomberg – Fire Weather Program Manager David Gomberg – Fire Weather Program Manager  (805) 988-6626 Mark Jackson – Meteorologist in Charge Mark Jackson – Meteorologist in Charge  (805)988-6617 Eric Boldt – Warning Coordination Meteorologist Eric Boldt – Warning Coordination Meteorologist  (805) 988-6623 Rich Thompson – IMET Rich Thompson – IMET  (805) 988-6626 Website Website  weather.gov/losangeles

3. Topics Today Topics Today Rainfall Summaries Rainfall Summaries Drought and Fuels Drought and Fuels Seasonal Outlook Seasonal Outlook Products/Services Products/Services Spot Forecast Update Spot Forecast Update Red Flag Warnings Red Flag Warnings El Nino/La Nina El Nino/La Nina Decision Support Decision Support Station Fire – Los Angeles, CA August 29, 2009 Photo by Jonathan Alcorn

4. Oct 2015-May 2016 Precipitation Percent of Normal

5. Water Year 2015-2016 Precipitation 40-70 Percent of Rainfall October 1 - May 1

6. DroughtandFuels

7. Drought Monitor Drought Monitor http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ May 10 2016 May 12 2015

8. 2016 Live Fuel Moisture Santa Clarita Valley - May 11th Normal 2015 2016 Critical

9. WeatherOutlook

10. Precipitation Outlook June-July-August

11. Temperature Outlook June-July-August

12. GACC SEASONAL OUTLOOK May-June 2016 (Issued May 1, 2016) Summary: Normal Large Fire Potential Increased Grass Fire Potential Above Normal Temperatures

13. GACC SEASONAL OUTLOOK July 2016 (Issued May 1, 2016) Summary: Above Normal Large Fire Potential Interior Sections Above Normal Temperatures Above Normal Days of monsoonal summertime thunderstorms High concentration of dead vegetation/bug killed timber

14. GACC SEASONAL OUTLOOK August 2016 (Issued May 1, 2016) Summary: Above Normal Large Fire Potential Above Normal Temperatures Above Normal Days of monsoonal summertime thunderstorms High concentration of dead vegetation/bug killed timber

15. NWS Products and Services Fire Weather Planning Forecast (FWF) Fire Weather Planning Forecast (FWF) Spot Forecasts Spot Forecasts NFDRS Trend Forecast NFDRS Trend Forecast Red Flag Warnings/Fire Weather Watches Red Flag Warnings/Fire Weather Watches IMET Program IMET Program

17. www.wrh.noaa.gov/firewx/?wfo=lox Spot Forecasts FWF/RFW Fire Wx Snooper Red Flag Monitor

18. Spot Forecasts Spot forecasts available Spot forecasts available –Wildfire –Prescribed burns –Hazmat/Search and Rescue –Event Planning Include working contact number and agency Include working contact number and agency Include observations and time you need spot Include observations and time you need spot Can reach NWS forecaster 24/7 Can reach NWS forecaster 24/7 –(805) 988-6626

19. New Spot Page (Operational Nov 1, 2016)

20. PAGE LINK : HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/SPOT HTTP://PREVIEW.WEATHER.GOV/SPOT Still in “Testing” phase Testing will go through November 1 st, then become operational Please try out the page and submit any feedback using the link below http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws- survey.php?code=SPOTWEBPAGE http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws- survey.php?code=SPOTWEBPAGE You can either use the page to submit an actual spot request, or send a “test” request to practice using it

21. SPOT HOME PAGE Click “buttons” on the bottom to either submit a new request or go to the page with existing requests to modify your request or retrieve your forecast

22. FIRST PAGE OF REQUEST 3 options to select location: Enter a street address Enter lat/lon or USNG Move the marker on the map (click/hold and drag the marker to desired location). This will populate the lat/lon and USNG fields.

23. FIRST PAGE OF REQUEST Select Incident Type NEW: Land vs Water HAZMAT and SAR! Marine Other Click the “Generate A Spot Request” button to move onto the next page of options Check this box if you would like to practice using the new page without submitting a real spot request

24. SECOND PAGE OF REQUEST Fill in the fields as before. These will vary slightly depending on incident type (Wildfire was selected in this example)

25. SECOND PAGE OF REQUEST Select forecast elements, whether or not you’d like a Hysplit run (useful for smoke and HAZMAT situations), and enter any remarks/special instructions (e-mail or faxes required, etc)

26. SECOND PAGE OF REQUEST NEW Select what day/time you want your forecast completed by under the “Deliver Forecast” section (either ASAP or a specified time) Select the day/time you want the forecast to start (this was the only option in the old version)

27. BACK TO THE SPOT HOME PAGE Lets look at the spot monitor page now!

28. SPOT MONITOR Defaults to a national map. Zoom in to Southern CA to find your request or select from the list below.

29. SPOT MONITOR Forecast page example

30. Watches and Warnings Watches and Warnings issued for critical fire weather patterns conducive to extreme fire danger and/or fire behavior Watches and Warnings issued for critical fire weather patterns conducive to extreme fire danger and/or fire behavior –Must have sufficiently dry fuels Fire Weather Watch Alerts agencies of potential red flag conditions Confidence is high but not certain Fire Weather Watch Alerts agencies of potential red flag conditions Confidence is high but not certain Red Flag Warning Red flag conditions either imminent or are occurring Red Flag Warning Red flag conditions either imminent or are occurring 24 – 96 hours prior to expected event 0 – 48 hours prior to event Jonathan Alcorn

31. Red Flag Criteria NWS Oxnard The less than 10% RH requires a minimum wind speed of 15 mph

32. Coordination Calls Coordination Calls All Red Flag Warnings/Fire Weather Watches coordinated with GACC and local fire agencies All Red Flag Warnings/Fire Weather Watches coordinated with GACC and local fire agencies Importance of 830 am GACC Conference Call Importance of 830 am GACC Conference Call  Event driven during critical fire weather patterns  Multi-agency participation Riverside GACC leads call Riverside GACC leads call NWS offices (including IMETS during ongoing fires) NWS offices (including IMETS during ongoing fires) Fire Agencies Fire Agencies  Overview of weather, fuels, and potential fire behavior  Decision making

33. NWS Oxnard Focused Conference Calls In addition to 830 am GACC Call, local conference calls are initiated by NWS Oxnard In addition to 830 am GACC Call, local conference calls are initiated by NWS Oxnard –Additional details/decision making can be discussed –More time for addressing local weather concerns and fielding questions –Typically held at 1 pm

35. Red Flag Monitor

36. Debris Flow Project Introduced winter season of 2005/2006 Introduced winter season of 2005/2006 Focus is Flash Flooding and Debris Flows from recent burn areas Focus is Flash Flooding and Debris Flows from recent burn areas –Typically 2-years old or less –Fires 200 acres or greater as well as smaller fires with significant urban impact

37. Debris Flow Project USGS develops rainfall thresholds that can trigger debris flows USGS develops rainfall thresholds that can trigger debris flows NWS Oxnard uses thresholds as guidance for issuing Flash Flood products within burn areas NWS Oxnard uses thresholds as guidance for issuing Flash Flood products within burn areas Forecasters available by phone 24/7 Forecasters available by phone 24/7 –On-site support also available to assist incident command team

38. NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard Weather.gov/losangeles Thank you! Questions? David Gomberg, NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard 805-988-6626