1. 1 REMSAD VERSION 7.10 WITH SOURCE TAGGING Inter-RPO Modeling Meeting May 25, 2004 Shan He, Emily Savelli, Jung-Hun Woo, John Graham and Gary Kleiman, NESCAUM

2. OBJECTIVES Evaluate performance of tagging module by comparing tagged and non-tagged model results with EPA’s CSA model result Assess techniques for determining state contribution to sulfate PM fraction and total PM2.5 on regional scale Emphasis is on the technique, not the result!

3. MODELING REMSAD V7.10 - CB-IV micro-mechanism - parameterized aerosol chemistry and dynamics - SOA yield from anthropogenic and biogenic hydrocarbons - TAGGING SCHEME for sulfur species (SO2, GSO4, and ASO4), nitrogen, mercury and cadmium METEOROLOGY - Clear Skies Act (CSA) base year 1996 annual MM5 model run EMISSIONS - CSA 2001”Proxy” emissions

4. CSA 2001 “PROXY” EMISSIONS -1996 Nonroad Rule Emissions: 1996 inventory for all area, nonroad, mobile and point sources, for Canadian, Offshore and US, for criteria pollutants and mercury -Multiplicative factors applied to 1996 Nonroad Rule US EGU, nonroad and mobile sources to create 2001 emissions -Linear interpolation between 1996 Nonroad Rule and 2010 Transport Rule US non-EGU point and area sources to create 2001 emissions -1996 Nonroad Rule Canadian, Mexican, Offshore and biogenics emissions

5. - 120 (E-W) X 84 (N-S) grid cells - Cell size (36km X 36km, 0.5 o X 0.3333 o ) - E-W range: 66 degrees W - 126 degrees W N-S range: 24 degrees N - 52 degrees N - Vertical extent: Ground to 16,200 meters (100mb) with 12 layers MODELING DOMAIN

7. MODEL EVALUATION

8. Percentage contribution of tagged sulfate to PM2.5 at Brigantine NJ Elevated Sources Contribute ~1% PA Elevated Sources Contribute ~4% Surface emissions alone ~14% All other non-tagged states in Tag Group 1 and surface SO2 emission in whole US contributes ~33%

11. Tagging: Next Steps Develop preliminary state contributions to sulfate from elevated point sources for contribution assessment Performance evaluation using 2002 meteorology and emissions Explore surface emission tagging; nitrate tagging Refined analysis is likely to play a role in “weight of evidence” SIP work (See MV modeling presentation at 2pm)