1. The CNR regional Optimally Interpolated SST products from MERSEA to MyOcean: future operational products and new re-analyses B.Buongiorno Nardelli 1, C.Tronconi 1, S.Marullo 2, M.Guarracino 2, R.Santoleri 1, A.Kholod 3, Yu.B. Ratner 3 1 CNR – ISAC -Gruppo Oceanografia da Satellite-Roma, Italy 2 ENEA – Progetto Speciale Clima Globale-Roma, Italy 3 Marine Hydrophysical Institut Ukrainian National Academy of Science – Sevastopol, Ukraine

2. CNR SST-related activities within national and international projects/programmes NRT products Mediterranean Forecasting System  EU Adricosm  Italian Government Medspiration  ESA Mersea  EU PRIMI  ASI  Develop an UHR (up to 1 km) product over the Italian Seas MyOcean Re-analyses Mediterranean Forecasting System SESAME  EU  compute a L4 re-analysis over the Black Sea

3. PRIMI HR and UHR Optimal Interpolation system B.Buongiorno Nardelli, R.Santoleri, S.Marullo, C.Tronconi

4. MFS regional sub-regional and shelf systems MFS supports sub-regional (3 km) and shelf models (1 km) nesting: weekly forecasts are produced for ALL the sub-regional models and some shelf models Sub-regional models at 3 km Shelf models at 1.5 km

5. CNR OI_HR SST operational system: overview OI_HR SST 1/16° grid all infrared sensors (no microwaves) only night-time data

6. Cloud detection at GOS is performed at various steps:  On original images, before the merging is performed: Applying selection criteria on L2P rejection flag, proximity confidence (etc.)…  Before selecting SST data in the optimal interpolation algorithm: -comparison to the nearest analysis available (if interpolation error is lower than a fixed value) -valid SST area’s margin erosion Started with IPCV 4 and 5, now only accept 5… still problems… CNR OI_HR SST operational system: L2P data extraction and decloud procedures

7. In theory OI should only weight the data basing on observational error and covariance  huge amount of data First data sub-sampling Our scheme builds a single image per day selecting the ‘best’ measure available for each pixel  bias between sensors/passes must be corrected CNR OI_HR merging strategy: 1.Define a Reference sensor list which will not be corrected e.g. AATSR MODIS-Terra AVHRR (NOAA 17) 1.A composite map is built. 2.The merging procedure selects valid pixels using a configurable sensor sequence (hierarchy based on validation statistics) 3.Before adding data to the merged map, the bias between each new image and the pixels that have already been merged is estimated and removed (only if sufficient co-located pixels are found) CNR OI_HR SST operational system: L2P merging

8. MERSEA: Evaluation of SENSOR BIASES (MODIS data) MODIS Terra (11micron) MBE=-0.21 °C Rms=0.38 °C MODIS Terra (4 micron) MBE=-0.04 °C Rms=0.33 °C MODIS Aqua (4 micron) MBE=-0.16 °C Rms=0.54 °C MODIS Aqua (11 micron) MBE=-0.34 °C Rms=0.55 °C

9. Optimal interpolation in synthesis Gives an estimate of an anomaly field with respect to a first guess, assuming statistical characteristics of the variability are known (background error covariance and observation error covariance). SST analysis is obtained as a linear combination of the observations, weighted directly with their correlation to the interpolation point and inversely with their cross-correlation However, different processes at different scales contribute to the variability of the SST

10. Optimal interpolation in synthesis Consequently, OI does not only interpolate, but also acts as a low- pass filter for the scales smaller than those dominating the background error covariance On the other hand… Resolution should be linked to covariance scales to avoid ‘monster’ matrix inversions and huge computational time  multi-scale approach to UHR OI Generally some sub-sampling strategy can be applied to keep a ‘reasonable’ amount of data within an ‘influential’ space/time radius RESOLUTION by itself is NOT a ‘SCALE SELECTION’ tool, COVARIANCE functions shape our ‘optimal filters’.

11. The data used to interpolate at a certain time-space location are selected within a limited sub-domain, close to the interpolation point The most correlated observation is selected first, while all successive data are selected only if they are found along a new direction in the space-time (until n observations are found). The scheme drives a ‘multi-basin’ analysis to avoid information propagation across land, from one sub-basin to the other. CNR OI_HR SST operational system: data selection

12. 1/16° product: the first guess is a daily (pentad) climatology built from 20 years of Pathfinder V5 data. Correlation function was estimated directly from observations in the framework of Medspiration: Small scale variability strongly filtered! where L =180 km τ =7 days CNR OI_HR SST operational system: statistical assumptions

13. the first guess is the HR SST field  scale separation Covariance function and decorrelation time/space scales are defined a priori: Different configurations will be tested Initial configuration L=5 km, τ =2 days CNR OI_UHR SST scheme: statistical assumptions

14. CNR OI_UHR SST scheme: overview and future implementation architecture

15. Operational model grid AREG 3km Sub-regional model at 3 km CNR OI_UHR SST scheme: selected test areas GHRSST UHR grid 1 km

16. Same procedure as for LowRes Only applied to High resolution sensors AVHRR 17 MODIS Aqua MODIS Terra AVHRR 18 CNR OI_UHR SST scheme: L2P data extraction

17. Bias adjustment procedure modified  OI_HR uses AATSR and/or MODIS-T and/or AVHRR17 as reference  OI_UHR uses the first guess to remove all biases CNR OI_UHR SST scheme: L2P data merging

18. CNR OI_UHR SST scheme: example

19. CNR OI_UHR SST scheme: computing strategy Small decorrelation scales allow multiple runs on small sub-basin grids and subsequent ‘collage’… several interpolation grids and input data search grids are defined so that same data are used at the borders of each grid (a sort of buffer area)

20. SESAME SST re-analysis over the Black Sea B.Buongiorno Nardelli, M.Guarracino, R.Santoleri, A.Kholod, Yu.B. Ratner

21. CNR Black Sea SST re-analysis: introduction The Mediterranean SST L4 code developed was modified considering the Black Sea characteristics (new land/sea mask, data quality control, and mostly OI parameters tuning), and allowing Pathfinder v5 data ingestion. A daily (pentad) climatology has been produced at 1/16° The 1985-2005 night-time data were interpolated at 1/16° and validated with drifter measurements processed by the Marine Hydrophysical Institut

22. CNR Black Sea SST re-analysis: big problem: clouds! Very few data during winter season Cloud-contaminated pixels still present even chosing the highes ranked values (‘best’ data) Needed to tune OI configuration  stronger erosion of the margins of valid pixel areas  larger ‘influencial’ radius to avoid spurious gradients in case only a few valid pixels are present, which, in turn, means an additional sub- sampling has to be applied in absence of clouds…

23. Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Example images of the Black Sea SST re-analysis

24. CNR Black Sea SST re-analysis: timeseries of mean deviation from climatology and mean error

25. Mean bias=-0.098 Rms=0.64 CNR Black Sea SST re-analysis: validation vs drifters