1. Adaptation to Climate Change Grete Kaare Hovelsrud PhD Research Director Center for International and Environmental Research – Oslo CICERO Joint Seminar of the UArctic Rectors’ Forum and Standing Committee of Parliamentarians of the Arctic Region Rovaniemi, 27-29 February 2008

2. 2 Point of departure Both mitigation and adaptation are necessary Adaptation takes place locally, but is linked to regional, national and international events and processes Adaptation to climate change takes place in the context of multiple factors

3. 3 Mitigation and Adaptation: Two simultaneous thoughts

4. 4 The Arctic is a special case Rate of change is faster: particular feedback mechanisms in the north Temperature increase is doubled that of global average Observations show that sea ice in the Arctic is melting faster than model predictions

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6. 6 The Arctic is a special case Major impacts of climate change on the residents of the circumpolar Arctic region Need for adaptation to changing conditions – both to new opportunities and constraints

7. 7 Local adaptation links with regional, national and international events and processes Different concerns within a community, a sector, or stakeholder groups Indirect consequences of climate change on a local community Planning under uncertainty, and across borders – a challenge for politicians

8. 8 Climate change and local concerns: Hammerfest as a case Fishermen must adjust their activities to new species –shifts in technology –new and changing fishing regulations Variable access to markets Lack of skilled young men and women Local knowledge of tides, winds, and sea conditions, have been replaced by navigational technologies GPS, sonar devices

9. 9 Municipal concerns and planning Precipitation (rain or snow), temperature, avalanches, wind speed and direction Building conditions –Restricted building in areas of risk –Avalanche protection Infrastructure and transport Harbour pollution as a result of run-off

10. 10 Local concerns: Oil and gas sector in Hammerfest Installations will have to deal with –an expected increase in storm surges, wave heights and wind –icing on equipment, –increasing sea level, –environmental safety

11. 11 Indirect effects of climate change: Hammerfest case Opens up for more oil and gas exploration Access to workers –Decreasing recruitment of fishermen Oil-gas and fisheries competing ‘over space’ More traffic at sea - questions of preparedness International security questions and access discussions Affect local vulnerability Increases the need for further adaptation at the local level

12. 12 Shipping: The Northern Sea Route Travel distance reduced with 40% - (70000 kr/day/ship) Transitt transport from Russia: 8,1 Mill tonn in 2003 36 million in 2015 68 tankers per month along the Norwegian coast in 2015 Ships will have to deal with –an expected increase in storm surges, wave heights and wind –Icing on equipment, –increasing sea level, –environmental safety Effect local vulnerability International regulations

13. 13 Uncertainty Natural variability versus trends – global and regional circulation models Drivers of change – climate, social, economic political In understanding the adaptive capacity of a community, a region, a nation and internationally

14. 14 Political challenges Planning under uncertainty Considering local adaptation (needs, capacity) and international implications at the same time Mainstreaming climate change into policy Collaborating across communities and borders: how to generalise from particular situations Using particular cases to inform policy and learn

15. 15 Efforts underway CAVIAR – Community Adaptation and Vulnerability in the Arctic Regions – an IPY research project – 21 cases across the Circumpolar north Many Strong Voices project VACCA - Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Arctic – Arctic Council SDWG Many others...

16. 16 The main message Local focus and knowledge essential in studies on and for adaptation Variation between sectors and different levels within the local community Local understanding generalisable –Transfer of practical knowledge –Increase scientific knowledge base International linkages

17. 17 Conclusions Adaptation has not been on the political and scientific agenda This is reflected in lack of knowledge and lack of focus More and integrated knowledge is needed across scientific disciplines and local/traditional knowledge, between scientists and decision-makers and on the international arena

18. 18 I It is about people, our livelihoods and well-being It is about people, our livelihoods and well-being