1. Intercensal Population Estimates Program: Post 2000 Signe Wetrogan Assistant Chief for Population Estimates and Projections Meeting of Federal State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates FSCPE September, 2001

2. Goals for Intercensal Estimates Program: Post 2000 Maintain Current Product Line Maintain Timeliness of Releases Complete Evaluation of 1990’s Introduce Census 2000 as Base for Vintage 2001 Estimates Introduce Methodological Enhancements Improve Dissemination of Estimates Rebenchmark Estimates of 1990’s

3. Product Line and Schedule State/National totals –late December July 2001 estimates released December 2001 County totals –April of following year July 2001 estimates released April 2002 Subcounty totals –July of following year July 2001 estimates released July 2002

4. Product Line and Schedule State/County age, sex, race, Hispanic Origin –June/July of following year July 2001 in June/July 2002 State/County household/housing units –June/July of following year July 2001 in June, July 2002 National Population Projections –Late 2002/Early 2003 State and Household Projections –July 2003

5. Evaluation of 1990’s Preliminary Estimates Evaluation Complete –Developed 4/1/2000 estimates based on 1990 –National, State and County totals, State and County Age and Hispanic origin, Subcounty totals, County Housing Estimates –Dissemination Format Available - October, 2001 Web based; PDF and Print Release; SDA and FSCPE Presentation Preliminary Projections Evaluation –National and State Underway

6. Introduce Census 2000 as base for Vintage 2001 Estimates State/National data released in December 2001 will be based on Census 2000 Will use October 15, 2001 decision on adjustment Will use new OMB race guidelines –will develop estimates for 31 racial categories will develop MARS approach –categories will be combined for dissemination

7. Introduce Methodological Enhancements Improve estimates of International Migration –Incorporate latest DAPE national results for nonimmigrants; unauthorized; and emigrants Use latest boundaries in subcounty estimates –Incorporate latest BAS results Vintage 2001 estimates will use Census 2000 base Vintage 2002 estimates will use results of BAS 2002 mailout (December 2001 boundaries)

8. Introduce Methodological Enhancements Improve state/county age, sex, race, Hispanic Origin estimates –Introduce cohort component method for state and county estimates –Use of SSA/IRS Migration Data Integrate ACS and Special Census with Estimates Increase involvement of FSCPE and SDC –Introduce GIS Tools for Review

9. Introduce Methodological Enhancements Incorporate FSCPE Estimate Results –Evaluation during 2002 –Incorporation for vintage 2003 estimates

10. Estimates Dissemination 3 Tier Approach for Each Product –Initial Web Release E & P Site + AFF Data Tables, Text, Maps, Charts, Data Files Press Releases –Methodology –Report on Estimate Results Web PDF Format and Print Available with Initial Data Release Cross Product Analytical Reports

11. Rebenchmark Estimates of 1990’s Produce intercensal estimates that benchmark to 1990 Census and Census 2000 –2002 - National/State totals Incorporate international migration evaluation Mathematical smoothing –2002/2003- Race/Age Race Consistency Full Sample data from Census 2000