1. Welcome to the Final Dissemination Workshop of the 2050+ Airport Project February 4 2014 Steigenberger Airport Hotel Frankfurt, Germany

2. Aims of today Disseminate the results of the “2050+ Airport” project: –The final three generic 2050+ airport concepts forming the core of the AP2050+ project: the time-efficient, cost-effective and ultra-green airport. –The results of the two validation cycles performed to assess the quality and potential of concepts and solutions with respect to relevant KPIs. –The main conclusions drawn from the AP2050+ project results. –Our recommendations to support you as key airport stakeholders. Receive your feedback: –On our three concepts by sharing your ideas regarding the competitive, sustainable and time-efficient airport of the future –On the validation process, conclusions and recommendations –On the “2050+ Airport” project in general Explore during the plenary discussion: –The three airport concepts and your vision on the airport of 2050+ –The support that LT-research projects can offer to pave the way forward 25-Jun-16The 2050+ Airport2

3. Agenda 25-Jun-16The 2050+ Airport3 startTopicLeader 9:00hWelcome coffeeMaría Sanchez Sampedro 9:30hWelcome (NLR) Explain aim of the day, agenda, introduction attendants Pim van Leeuwen 9:45hIntroduction to the AP2050+ project (NLR) Presentation of project overview, project vision, main objectives, and main end results Pim van Leeuwen 10:15hPresentation of the three concepts and ideas: Ultra- Green (NLR), Time-Efficient (TUD), and Cost Effective (SLOT) René Verbeek, Paul Roling, Roland Guraly 11:15hCoffee break 11:45hPresentation of the validation results (CRIDA)Jaime Perez de Diego

4. Agenda continued 25-Jun-16The 2050+ Airport4 startTopicLeader 12:05hPresentation of the main conclusions and recommendations (UPM) Ricardo Roman 12:30hLunch 13:30hVideo presentation (SLOT)Roland Guraly 13:45hPlenary discussion on the airport of the future (INECO/NLR) María Sanchez Sampedro Pim van Leeuwen 14:45hClosing of the dissemination workshop (NLR) Pim van Leeuwen 15:00hTransport to optional Frankfurt airport tour 15:30hFrankfurt airport tour 18:00hEnd of tour

5. Introduction Attendants 5 March 2012The 2050 Airport Project - Workshop5 Stakeholders:  Frankfurt Airport (D)  Amsterdam Airport Schiphol (NL)  Kaunas Airport (LT)  Targu-Mures Airport (RO)  Vilnius Airport (LT)  Vienna Airport (AS)  Barajas Airport (ES)  Riga Airport (LA)  Imperial College (UK)  Eurocontrol (EU/BE)  Airbus (D)  Max-Planck Institute for Biological Cybernetics (D)  ISDEFE (ES) Consortium:  CRIDA (ES)  NLR (NL)  DLR (D)  Technische Universiteit Delft (NL)  Universidad Politecnica de Madrid (ES)  INECO (ES)  SMART (LT)  Slot Consulting (HU) Affiliations:

6. Introduction to the The 2050+ Airport Project Pim van Leeuwen (NLR) Steigenberger Airport Hotel Frankfurt, Germany February 4 2014

7. 5 March 2012The 2050 Airport Project - Workshop7 Overview The 2050+ Airport project:  Summary, consortium and stakeholders  Scope  Vision  Objectives  End results  Distinguishing features  Current Status

8. 5 March 2012The 2050 Airport Project - Workshop8 Project summary The 2050+ Airport project: –FP7 project, a small/medium scale focused research project –Addressing step changes in air transport operations –Subject: Airports Duration: 30 months –From September 2011 until March 2014 Budget: 2.6M euro (2M EU contribution) EU-Commission: DG-Research Project objective: –To explore new airport concepts with radical and novel solutions to prepare airports for 2050 and beyond.

9. 5 March 2012The 2050 Airport Project - Workshop9 Project consortium NoParticipant organisation nameCountryShort 1Nationaal Lucht- en RuimtevaartlaboratoriumThe Netherlands NLR 2Technische Universiteit DelftThe Netherlands TUD 3INECOSpainINECO 4CRIDASpainCRIDA 5Slot ConsultingHungarySLOT 6Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und RaumfahrtGermanyDLR 7Universidad Politécnica de MadridSpainUPM 8SMART Continent LTLithuaniaSMART

10. 5 March 2012The 2050 Airport Project - Workshop10 Project stakeholders Participating airports (by sub-contracting):  Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, the Netherlands  Fraport, Frankfurt, Germany  Kaunas Airport, Lithuania  Transilvania Airport, Tårgu-Mures, Romania And: Vienna, Vilnius, Riga and Barajas Airport And: Industry, research institutes, academia

11. 5 March 2012The 2050 Airport Project - Workshop11 Project scope Remark beforehand: The 2050+ Airport Project (2050AP) has explored the far future Only one thing is certain about the future: nothing is certain! Exploring the far future implies the risk of becoming too broad in scope Limiting scope/focus: Airports: no ATM, no aircraft technology Civil airports only, no military fields Passengers and baggage only, no cargo Intermodal connections included, but focus on airport interfacing with other modalities Three overarching concepts relevant for the airport of the future: –time-efficiency –cost-effectiveness –environmental sustainability

12. Project vision Why these three concepts? –Because we think this will be required from airports to remain competitive and socially accepted in the year 2050+ (see our WP2 D2.1.1 Vision doc.) Starting points vision: –If you want to develop solutions for the far future you should first of all know what the challenges and problems will be –the world around air transport will have a much larger impact than the air transport business itself Main question: what will this world look like in 2050+? Changes: –Demographic and societal changes –Economical and geopolitical changes –Environmental changes and expected energy demand/supply –Technological changes –Mobility (demand) changes 5 March 2012The 2050 Airport Project - Workshop12

13. Project vision: demographic and societal changes Demographic changes (sources UN, Shell) –Population increase: 9 billion in 2050 (+28.6% from 2011), 560 million EU (+12%) –Less developed regions will account for 99% of increase –People over 60 yrs old (developed regions): 34% (19% in 2000) 5 March 2012The 2050 Airport Project - Workshop13 Societal changes (sources ACARE, Akerman, et al.) –Society increasingly critical of environmental issues –Urbanisation: >70% in cities by 2050 –Growing middle classes in developing countries –Yet worldwide trend: middle classes are getting poorer

14. Project vision: economical changes Economical changes (sources HSBC, PWC, EU): –Global GDP growth rate +/- 3% per year, but unevenly distributed –GDP growth Europe: 1.7% per year till 2050 –By 2020/40, the emerging countries (E7) will have larger collective size than the developed countries (G7) 5 March 2012The 2050 Airport Project - Workshop14 –China and India will be the largest and 3rd-largest economies in the world –US and UK relatively succesful, but: –Small-population, ageing, rich economies will ‘loose’: Switzerland, the Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Norway, and Denmark

15. Project vision: geopolitical changes Geopolitical scenarios (EREA): –Unlimited Skies (ULS): a world that is not fundamentally constrained by energy availability –Regulatory Push & Pull (RPP): geopolitical regulations to constrain/regulate the use of energy sources –Down to Earth (DTE): geopolitical commitment to completely eliminate fossil fuels usage (no commercial air transport) –Fractured World (FW): a world divided into distinct blocs as a result of political/economical/energy/environmental Vision: stability in a ‘multi-polar world’ (sources ACARE/EU): –Relatively peaceful world –No global world power –Developing/BRIC countries gain political influence –Governments will impose more environmental regulations 5 March 2012The 2050 Airport Project - Workshop15

16. Project vision: changes in energy demand and supply Energy demand (source BP, Shell): –Global energy consumption will grow 41% from 2012 to 2035 (1.5% p.a.) –95-99% of growth comes from the developing countries 5 March 2012The 2050 Airport Project - Workshop16 Energy supply (BP, Shell): –98% of growth also comes from the developing countries –World production to grow at 1.5% p.a. matching demand –Fossil fuels: from 86% (2012) to 81% (2035) of total fuel consumption –Renewables only account for 2.4% of global supply, to grow to 7% by 2035

17. 5 March 201217 Environmental changes (BP): –Carbon emissions continues to grow 1.1% p.a. until 2035 –Much faster than recommended by e.g. the IPCC (target 50% reduction by 2050 to counter temperature rise) Environmental changes (Shell, EU, IEA): –Climate changes may have occurred by 2050 –More frequent extreme weather patterns will occur Project vision: environmental changes

18. Project vision: technological changes Technological changes (Shell, World Energy Council, ACARE) –Increased use of automated machines and ICT: transport vehicles, UAVs –Increase in use of alternative energy sources in non-transport areas: Nuclear power, biofuels, solar and wind energy, hydropower, geothermal energy, combined Heat- and Power –But transport remains dominated by oil (BP: 87% for road transport in 2035) –And for air transport: no perfect fossil fuel alternative exists Solar energy provides too little propulsion power Nuclear energy brings about unacceptable risks; cold fusion doesn’t exist Other alternatives cannot be used: batteries remain to large/heavy –Result: Kerosine expensive but still in use, but i.c.w. biofuels Hydrocarbon engines will be used, but still dependent on kerosene/biofuels Aircraft designs optimized for fuel consumption (A380, B787 still around) 5 March 2012The 2050 Airport Project - Workshop18

19. Project vision: mobility changes Mobility changes (EU, ACARE, DLR, BP) –The global demand for air transport is expected to increase (Airbus, FlightPath2050): –Air transport will be increasingly integrated with other modes of transportation –Growth in demand for air travel particularly in Asia / BRIC countries –The challenge: 4 hours door-to-door for 90% of travels in the EU (FlightPath2050) 5 March 2012The 2050 Airport Project - Workshop19 Mobility AspectForecast Worldwide traffic growth4-5% per year (Airbus, FlightPath2050) Worldwide RPK growth2.5-3.5% per year between 2000-2050 Worldwide air travel passengers 16 billion per year (+ 540% from 2011) Commercial EU flights25 million per year (+ 166% from 2011)

20. Project vision: the three concepts Recap of the question: why the three concepts? Ultra Green: –Sustainability strongly required for future social acceptance –Expected increased future push of governments towards sustainability Time Efficient: –Severe competition from other modes of transport on time-efficiency (incl. high- speed trains, autonomous vehicles) –Increased need to connect fast and seamlessly (ICT may provide full transparency) Cost Effective: –Severe competition from other modes of transport on costs/revenues –Increased fuel and other resource prices (e.g. land) -> need to make cost-effective use of resources 5 March 2012The 2050 Airport Project - Workshop20

21. 5 March 2012The 2050 Airport Project - Workshop21 Project objectives The 2050+ Airport Project (2050AP) has aimed to: Develop a vision for 2050+ (WP2) Build a value driven methodology for airport concept development (WP2) Develop three airport concepts following this methodology (WP4) Develop a validation framework to validate the concepts and increase their maturity level (WP3) Draw conclusions (WP5) and disseminate results (WP6) By doing so, the project aimed to provide benefits to: The four stakeholders airports All participants of the workshops All existing European airports and related stakeholders with an interest in long-term development All European airports yet to be developed

22. 5 March 2012The 2050 Airport Project - Workshop22 Project End Results The end result consists of: 1.A value driven methodology for airport concept development 2.Three Innovative airport concepts: –The time-efficient airport: To minimise throughput time of aircraft and passengers by providing seamless flow through the air transport system –The ultra-green airport: To make the airport self sufficient in its energy needs, operate in a climate neutral way and limit its noise exposure –The cost-effective airport: To create an airport with extremely low operating costs generating high revenues

23. 5 March 2012The 2050 Airport Project - Workshop23 Project End Results (2) 3.Several concept elements/ideas forming the building blocks, e.g.: –Electric Guided Taxi System –Underground container loading –Electric Engine Accelerators for take-off –Automated People Movers –MagLev for TOL 4.A validation framework to increase concept maturity level and assess the impact of concept elements on relevant KPIs: –e.g. cost, emissions, noise, energy/water use, time-efficiency A/C, time-efficiency PAX, revenues, intermodality

24. 5 March 2012The 2050 Airport Project - Workshop24 AP2050+ distinguishing features Project’s distinguishing features: Broad in scope and focus on the far future: beyond 2050 This potential future is described by means of three overarching, integrating concepts (cf. scenarios) Each concept consists of several individual concept elements/ideas forming the building blocks Airports / other stakeholders are given a choice: depending on their business plan, target group, size, local community etc. they may:  Choose to focus on UG, TE or CE or a combination thereof  Choose within each concept the most suitable combination of concept elements/ideas Project’s main challenge: To develop a vision and corresponding concepts that are in the “real” interest of European airports and effectively support their development to meet the challenges of the (far) future

25. 5 March 2012The 2050 Airport Project - Workshop25 Project Status Project has been active since September 2011 and ends February 28 2014 Done: –A concept development methodology (WP2) has been developed –A validation framework (WP3) has been developed –The three airport concepts (WP4) have been developed Almost done: –The conclusions and recommendations reports (WP5) –The dissemination and exploitation reports (WP6) Two workshops have been held: –Methodology Workshop March 2012 in Amsterdam to obtain feedback on the methodology + capture initial concept ideas –Validation Workshop June 2013 in Madrid to validate at V0 maturity level the concept ideas proposed in all three airport concepts Today the final dissemination workshop: to disseminate final results and obtain feedback and recommendations from stakeholders

26. Main sources used for project vision Overall world outlook 2050: Shell: “Shell energy scenarios to 2050”, Shell International BV, 2008 BP: “BP Energy Outlook 2035”, BP, January 2014 HSBC Bank: “The world in 2050 - Quantifying the shift in the global economy” Price Waterhouse Coopers: “The World in 2050, The accelerating shift of global economic power” UN: “World Population Ageing 1950-2050” World energy council: “Deciding the future - energy policy scenarios to 2050” International Energy Agency: “World Energy Outlook 2010” Future Air Transport System: EREA: “EREA vision for the future – towards the future generation of Air Transport System” ACARE: “Beyond Vision 2020 (Towards 2050)” ACARE: “Out Of The Box, Ideas about the Future of Air Transport” EU: FlightPath 2050: “Europe’s Vision for Aviation Report of the High Level Group on Aviation Research” 5 March 2012The 2050 Airport Project - Workshop26

27. 5 March 2012The 2050 Airport Project - Workshop2725-Jun-1627 Thank you for your attention. Any questions?