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Opening Addresses Jan. 11 M. Kikuchi, JAERI Jan. 11 M. Kikuchi, JAERI US-Japan Workshop on Fusion Power Plants and Related Advanced Technologies with participation of EU January 11-13, 2005 at Tokyo, JAPAN
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- 1 - US-Japan Reactor workshop is a long-standing activity (From my memory) US-Japan Reactor workshop is a long-standing activity (From my memory) 1st 1989(JAERI,May29-39):ARIES-I, SSTR, --- 2nd 1990(UCLA,Oct.15-17):ARIES-I, SSTR, CFAR 3rd 1992(JAERI,Mar.9-11): ARIES-II/IV,SSTR-2, ST(TARTRs) 4th 1993(UCLA,Sep.17) : in conjunction with IAEA-TCM 5th 1995(Kyoto U.,Mar.13-16): STARLITE,SEAFP, FFHR, Pulsar, IDLT 1st 1989(JAERI,May29-39):ARIES-I, SSTR, --- 2nd 1990(UCLA,Oct.15-17):ARIES-I, SSTR, CFAR 3rd 1992(JAERI,Mar.9-11): ARIES-II/IV,SSTR-2, ST(TARTRs) 4th 1993(UCLA,Sep.17) : in conjunction with IAEA-TCM 5th 1995(Kyoto U.,Mar.13-16): STARLITE,SEAFP, FFHR, Pulsar, IDLT ?th 1999(Kyoto U.,Mar.24-26): CREST, ARIES-ST, DREAM,FFHR ?th 2000(UCSD,Mar.16-17): ARIES-AT, A-SSTR2,FFHR,CREST,ESE ?th 2001(U. Tokyo,ARIES-AT, A-SSTR2,CREST,FFHR,ESE ?th 2002(UCSD,Apr.6-7): FFHR, Laser, ESE ?th 2003(UCSD,Oct.9-11): ARIES-IFE, ARIES-CH,FFHR, ESE ?th 2005(JAERI/UT,Jan.11-13): FFHR, ARIES-CH, VECTOR ?th 1999(Kyoto U.,Mar.24-26): CREST, ARIES-ST, DREAM,FFHR ?th 2000(UCSD,Mar.16-17): ARIES-AT, A-SSTR2,FFHR,CREST,ESE ?th 2001(U. Tokyo,ARIES-AT, A-SSTR2,CREST,FFHR,ESE ?th 2002(UCSD,Apr.6-7): FFHR, Laser, ESE ?th 2003(UCSD,Oct.9-11): ARIES-IFE, ARIES-CH,FFHR, ESE ?th 2005(JAERI/UT,Jan.11-13): FFHR, ARIES-CH, VECTOR
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Other Frameworks Note : IEA FPCC recommends coordination among various frameworks - 2 - [2] IAEA framework : IAEA technical meeting on 1st generation of fusion power plants [1] IEA framework : International Energy Agency Cooperative Agreement on Environmental, Safety, and Economic Aspects of Fusion Power
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Roadmap to Fusion DEMO 2010 2015 2020 2025 2035 Decomi ssioning Construction Development of breeding blanket Fusion material development (inc. IFMIF) Achieve Q=20, 400s Achieve Q~5 steady-state operation Proof of principle of breeding blanket Confirm physics database Confirm material database DEMO physics input for starting EDA construction power production Grid connection licencing 2005 FY ITER program Satelite Tokamaks And other devices Fusion technology development DEMO Basic performance phase Decision of construction JT-60 and JET 2030 Performance extension phase Test of breeding blanket Coordination of DEMO physics and tech. R&D CDA-like EDA/R&D Concept exploration - 3 - JA,US,EU road map is similar targeting power production early 2030
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DEMO requirement Fusion must be economically competitive to enter energy market DEMO requirement Fusion must be economically competitive to enter energy market Prediction of world energy prospect for a case with Assumptions ; Improving rate of energy efficiency ; -1.3%/year (E/GDP) Cost of large scale solar power (2030 to 2100) ; electricity 5 to 2 cent/kWh, hydrogen 33 to 22$/barrel Cost of fusion power (2030 to 2100) ; electricity 30to 3 cent/kWh, hydrogen 110 to 19$/barrel Coal Oil Non-conventional oil Gas Non-conventional gas Fission Hydro 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 19001920194019601980200020202040206020802100 21.4Gton 16.5Gton Renewable (Hydrogen ) Renewable Fusion (Hydrogen) Primary Energy Consumption [Mtoe] ResultProspect From Dr. Itoh of nihon energy keizai kennkyuusho 2000 2010 2030 2050 2070 2100 40 30 20 10 0 Fusion Fossil Solar COE (cent/kWh) - 4 -
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4. Comparison with Fission Core - 5 - A=4
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Remarks - 6 - 1. Significant progress has been made in these 15 year on fusion reactor design interacting with experiments. 2. Next 15 years are critically important to identify DEMO to be constructed after ITER. 3. I hope successful workshop!
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