1. Inter-annual Simulation with the South Florida HYCOM Nested Model Roland Balotro, Villy Kourafalou and Alan Wallcraft 2005 Layered Ocean Model User’s Workshop 26-28 January 2005 RSMAS, University of Miami

2. South Florida Regional Model A nested approach has been employed for a HYCOM application around Florida Bay and the Florida Keys The simulations are closely linked to ongoing observational studies around the Florida Keys, Florida Bay and adjacent seas (Tom Lee, UM/RSMAS, Peter Ortner and Libby Johns, NOAA/AOML)

3. HYCOM application for coastal seas adjacent to Florida Bay/Florida Keys physical transport processes impose strong hydrodynamic links between Florida Bay and the adjacent coastal seas. significant transient inputs can reach Florida Bay and the Florida Keys from remote regions of the Gulf of Mexico. Funded by NOAA, the SFWMD and the EPA

4. Ongoing observational monitoring studies provide evidence of transport processes linking south Florida coastal ecosystems Lee et al., 2001 May 1, 2003 NOAA CoastWatch Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB) bulletin http://coastwatch.noaa.gov/hab/bulletins_ms.htm Coastal areas in SW Florida can be influenced by the Mississippi and west Florida shelf rivers.

5. Inter-annual Simulation with FLAe0.04 Preliminary experiments covering a period from September 1999 to December 2002 Inter-annual variability of wet/dry seasons Enhanced coastal features thru modified river discharge Wind-driven and buoyancy-driven currents along the Florida shelf Year-round eddy passages along the Loop Current/Florida Current Eddy/Wind Driven currents along the Florida Keys Comparison with salinity observations from Walton Smith bi-monthly cruises

6. Model Set-up Nesting Forcing Domain is nested within ATLd0.08 Regional FLAe0.04 model is run with nested open boundary conditions from Sept 1999 to Dec. 2002 using the same atmospheric forcing but with addition of climatological river discharge to enhance some coastal features. Four distinct nesting regions/buffer zones Free running and without data simulation Model run is based on HYCOM version 2.1.27 NOGAPS 3-6 hourly winds NOGAPS 3-6 hourly heat fluxes NOGAPS 3-6 hourly precipitation Monthly climatological river discharge Nsmooth = 5, thkriv = 5m, epmass = 1

7. Bathymetry Regional FLAe0.04_08 bathymetry with 1m coastline, 5m minimum depth and 1/25 degree resolution. Derived from 2-min NAVO/NRL DBDB2 global data set. Caloosahatchee River Shark River

8. #3.1#3.2#3.3 Salt fluxMass fluxMass flux + thkriv

9. River Discharge Monthly climatological river discharge from Caloosahatchee and Shark river were implemented as bogus precipitation. The rivers along South west Florida were treated as a line source. Caloosahatchee River Shark River

10. Inter-annual Variability: Wet/Dry Season Monthly mean salinity is calculated over an area to identify inter-annual variability of wet/dry season. Dry season is during winter and spring while wet season is during summer and fall. Year 2000 is extremely dry.

11. Observed Salinity Field Observations from bi-monthly cruises of Walton Smith confirmed that year 2002 is more wet than year 2001.

12. Inter-annual Variability: Dry Season (May) 200020012002 Year 2000 is the driest. The peak of dry season is May. Hypersaline condition is commonly observe in Florida Bay during dry season.

13. Inter-annual Variability: Wet Season (October) 200020012002 Year 2002 is wettest. The peak of wet season is October when salinity is much lowered by the combined freshwater sources: - atmospheric (precipitation) - local source (rivers)

14. River Plume VERY WEAK Wind In the absence of strong winds dynamics of river plume is established.

15. Influence of the Wind Oct 2000Oct 2002 The interaction between the wind and the riverine plume is an important coastal feature along South Florida.

16. Vertical Salinity Profile Oct 2000Oct 2002 AA’A A A

17. Comparison with Observation: Salinity Field SimulationData Plume along the west coast in good agreement with observation Underestimation of discharge from Caloosahatchee River Nov. 2001 Dec. 2002

18. Comparison with Observation: Salinity Field Data Simulation Absence of freshwater in Florida Bay Overestimation of discharge from the line source in June Apr. 2002 Jun. 2002

19. The model simulates the year-round eddy passages along the Loop Current/Florida Current. The eddy provides a transport mechanism of material and nutrients between the Dry Tortugas and the Keys. Year-round Eddy Passages

20. Wind Driven/ Eddy Driven Currents

23. #3.2 #3.3 Mass fluxMass flux + thkriv

24. Extreme Event: Hurricane Irene Irene is a Category 1 hurricane that moved over Florida Keys and southeast Florida. between October 13-19, 1999.

25. Model Response to Irene 1319 Hurricane winds interpolated from NOGAPS and the model response to Irene.