1. Phase 0 Case Study Big Island, Hawaii Earthquake

2. Case Study Objectives
Provide a case study to review disaster vulnerability
Review preparedness and mitigation efforts used to address disaster vulnerability

3. State of Hawaii: Population
10,931 square miles land
Total Population 2015: 1.4 mil
Oahu 999,000
Hawaii 196,000
Maui 164,000
Kauai 72,000
Total Visitors 2014:
8.2 million (33% Intl)
Oahu 5.2 mil
Hawaii 1.5 mil
Maui 2.4 mil
Note: Maui, Lanai, Molokai, Kahoolawe, and Molokini. The latter two islands are uninhabited.
Source:
US Census 2015 Figures. Accessed at
Hawaii 2014 Visitor Figures:

4. Hawaii: Isolation from mainland
The shortest air travel distance between Hawaii and California is
3,976 km= 2,471 miles.

5. Hawaii Economy
The primary source of income for Hawaii is the visitor sector which spreads itself over several industries, such as service, transportation and retail trade.
Estimated 90% of Hawaii's gross product is produced in service industries.
Community, business, and personal services (private health care, law, accounting, and engineering firms, hotels, restaurants, rental car agencies) make up Hawaii's leading service industry. Software development is also important.
Ranking second in the services sector are government services in support of Army, Air Force, Navy and Marine bases on Oahu. Also included is the operation of public schools.
Finance, insurance and real estate rank as Hawaii's third most important service area (Source: HI DBEDT & Netstate)
Source:

6. Hawai’i Disaster Vulnerability
Hurricanes/Cyclones
Volcano
Tsunami
Earthquake
Landslides
Flooding
High Wind Storms
Disease outbreak
Dam Failure
High Surf
Coastal Erosion
Droughts
Wild Fires
Hazardous Materials
Hawaii is vulnerable to a number of natural and man-made disasters. Some of this vulnerability is exacerbated by climate change and El Nino/La Nina (droughts, wild fires, coastal erosion, disease outbreak)

7. Hawaii: History of Earthquakes
Every year Hawaii tests its preparedness for hurricane/cyclone season which has been a particularly large focus for preparedness since the devastation of Hurricane Iniki in HOWEVER Hawaii is also incredibly vulnerable to devastation at the hands of a very powerful earthquake.

8. Hawai’i County Earthquakes
Earthquakes rates in Hawaii county are as high a most dangerous fault areas. The largest earthquakes occur under the flanks of Kilauea, Mauna Loa, and Hualalai. The largest in HI history occurred in 1868 in Ka’u district with an estimated magnitude of 7.9.

9. Preparing for the “big one”
Per FEMA’s Annual Earthquake Loss Ratio (AELR) the county of Hawaii ranks 3rd in the nation in terms of seismic risk behind San Francisco and Santa Cruz, California.
According to the USGS the a destructive earthquake of 6.5 magnitude or higher earthquake will strike the Hawaiian islands
Probability of 50% in the next 10 years
Probability of 75% in the next 20 years
Probability of 97% in the next 75 years
A large earthquake will impact the entire state.
Some earthquakes will generate deadly tsunamis.(1975).

10. October 2006: Earthquake test of preparedness and vulnerability
On Sunday October at 7:07:49 AM local time a 6.7 magnitude earthquake struck the island of Hawaii “Big Island” near Kailua Kona. The earthquake had a maximum Mercalli intensity of VIII (Severe).
The shock was centered 21 kilometers (13 mi) southwest of Puakō and 21 km (13 mi) north of Kailua-Kona, Hawaiʻi, just offshore of the Kona Airport, at a depth of 29 km (18 mi). It produced more than 60 aftershocks, including one that measured a magnitude of 6.1 seven minutes after the main shock. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center measured a small, nondestructive tsunami of 4 in (100 mm) on the coast of the Big Island.[3]

11. Hawaii Earthquake 2006: Community preparedness
“In Hawaii due to our isolation, we encourage all families to be prepared for 7 days instead of 72 hours. It will take time following a disaster for a logistics bridge to be built to Hawaii if our harbors and airports are affected by a major disaster and we may be relying on our own resources longer than other places within the United States. The following information is provided to help you better develop your own disaster plan and improve your family, business and community’s resiliency.”-Hawaii Chapter of the American Red Cross
Source of Photo:

12. Hawaii Earthquake 2006: Loss of Power Across the Islands
Source Photo:
By 9 p.m. Sunday, roughly 14 hours after the earthquake and a series of aftershocks, only about half of HECO's 290,000 customers on Oahu had power restored. Service was restored to virtually all of Maui and the Big Island -- the only other islands that experienced outages -- by 5 p.m.
HECO officials said the system operated as it was supposed to, shutting down after the quake tripped sensors that are in place to prevent further physical damage to the electrical distribution system.
ON OAHU the earthquakes caused the shutdown of two HECO generators, one in Kahe and the other in Honolulu.
After that happened, other generators attempted to compensate for the lost power, causing uneven "loads" on other parts of the electricity distribution chain, Unemori said. The uneven loads forced the entire system to shut down as a precaution against further damage to the entire system, such as a blown fuse or transformer failure somewhere along the distribution chain.
While similar shutdowns happened on other islands, those systems were able to come back online quicker because the systems are older than Oahu's and less computer-dependent, officials said.
On Oahu, for example, crews had to make sure that breakers throughout the system were in the correct positions "so that when power started being restored, we didn't get a flood of load coming back on all at once," Unemori said.
Source:
Little physical damage was observed on the island of O‘ahu after the Kīholo Bay earthquake with the major impact due to the loss of electricity service in the entire county. O‘ahu was unexpectedly placed in an island-wide power blackout when the earthquake triggered false low hydraulic fluid levels in level switches for the two largest generators representing 23% of the grids capacity at the main generating plant at Kahe point on the west coast of the island. Nearly at the same time, operators manually shut down two other units representing 12% of the grid’s capacity because the earthquake shaking was interpreted instead as turbine malfunction. With four main generators shutdown (two automatically and two manually) that had produced 35% of the grid’s power, there was insufficient capacity of the remaining system to meet demand. This initiated a progressive sequence of manual load shedding which was not able to prevent automatic shutdowns of the remaining generators triggered by load imbalances. Within 20 minutes of the earthquake, all 19 generators on O‘ahu with a combined capacity of 1225 megawatts had shutdown.
Power outages impaired public information and media communication efforts on the day of the earthquake. Eighty percent of radio and television stations in the State did not broadcast due to a lack of emergency generators at either the stations or their transmitter sites. Cable Television and internet service were not available due to lack of emergency power. As expected, cellular telephone systems were overloaded. As a result, many residents were cut off from important information sources, including State government, during the day of the earthquake. Honolulu International Airport was not operational on October 15th because it lacked sufficient emergency power. It took nearly 19 hours for the Hawaiian Electric Company (HECO) to restore power to 99.2% of its 291,000 customers. Concerned about balancing power generation with the electrical demand by customers, the utility had to restore power gradually. HECO officials indicated that if supply and demand had become unbalanced, it could have resulted in much longer outages from damaged equipment or having to restart the restoration. The basic process of simply powering up the grid can take four to eight hours with HECO’s large steam-generator units. –Chapter 7 State HI Multihazard

13. Hawaii Earthquake 2006: Critical Facilities
Kona Community Hospital was severely impacted by nonstructural damage to ceilings and equipment.
Evacuation of the hospital’s long-term care patients
Source Photo:
&
KCH capacity a 94-bed full-service acute and long term care facility,
Source: 2006 Kiholo Bay, Hawaii Earthquake, RMS Event Report. Accessed from

14. Hawaii Earthquake 2006: Residential Damages
Over 1,800 residences were damaged to some degree, with 62 red-tagged (declared unusable until major repairs are made) and 151 yellow-tagged (partially unusable until major repairs are made).
Very few homeowners had earthquake coverage.
Over 1,800 residences were damaged to some degree, with 62 red-tagged (declared unusable until major repairs are made) and 151 yellow-tagged (partially unusable until major repairs are made). Most of these losses will be borne by homeowners, as few policy owners purchase earthquake coverage in Hawaii. Within two weeks of the event, the State of Hawaii Insurance Division issued a memorandum reiterating that earthquake is not included in homeowners’ policies; they indicate that some coverage may be available, such as ensuing glass breakage, theft, fire, and food spoilage.
After an inventory was compiled, a structural engineering team developed retrofit strategies and specifications for strengthening post-and-pier homes. With this engineering information, a software team created a "Retrofit Expert System" ( for homeowners to develop appropriate retrofit designs and procure materials and hardware for their home seismic retrofits.

15. Big Island Earthquake 2006: Tourism/Hotels
Mauna Kea Beach Resort on the Kohala Coast sustained the worst damage
Source Photo:
And
“According to the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism of the state of Hawaii, tourism accounts for over $10 billion in revenue of the $50 billion in gross state product (GSP) with over 10,000 hotel and condominium units on the island of Hawaii alone. The reconnaissance team visited various resorts, including the Mauna Kea Beach Resort, the Hapuna Beach Prince Hotel, the Mauni Lani Resort, the Fairmont Orchid, and the Hilton Waikoloa Village.
While the majority of hotels sustained little or no damage and were back in business by Monday, October 16 when power and phone lines were restored, there were some resorts that suffered significant nonstructural and contents damage, including earthquake sprinkler leakage (EQSL) damage.”
Mauna Kea Damage: “The worst areas were found in the corner rooms on the top floor, indicative of the high accelerations of the ground motion. Overall observations included destroyed ceiling panels, shattered windows and glass doors, exposed wall and ceiling framing, and water damage from sprinkler leakage. The most significant structural damage was caused by an elevator shaft and housing pulling away from the building (Figure 5a). Additionally, one area near an expansion joint, which allows for movement between adjoining parts of the concrete slab, had severe cracking and additional nonstructural finishing damage (Figure 5b). The damage to the ceiling and drywall was fairly major, involving significant repair costs.”
After a $150 million renovation, the Mauna Kea Beach Resort reopened in December, 2008
Resorts in Kona were being asked to keep people close to hotels, Big Island Mayor Harry Kim told television station KITV. Cruise ships were asked to keep tourists on board, and ships that were due to dock with tourists were asked to move on to their next location

16. Hawaii Earthquake 2006: Roads
“Because of the lack of redundancy in the highway system on Hawai`i Island, road closures due to rockfalls or landslides can have a devastating effect on emergency response and economic recovery efforts.” –Kiholo Bay and Hawi Earthquake Reconnaissance October 26th, 2006
Source: Kiholo Bay and Hawi Earthquake Reconnaissance October 26th, 2006
University of Hawaii at Manoa Civil and Environmental Engineering Dept.
Excerpt to summarize: Numerous rockfalls and slides occurred in road cuts, embankments and natural slopes. The extent of these failures diminished considerably toward the more populated centers of Hilo and Kailua-Kona. Because of the lack of redundancy in the highway system on Hawai`i Island, road closures due to rockfalls or landslides can have a devastating effect on emergency response and economic recovery efforts. For a number of hours after the earthquakes, the area of North Kohala, including the town of Hawi, was cut off from the rest of the island because of road closures on Highways 250 and 270, the only access roads to this region. Fortunately, the rockfalls and landslides caused by these earthquakes could be cleared relatively easily, and all roadways were open to at least one-lane traffic within a day or two of the earthquakes. It was noted that wide shoulders on Highway 19 North of Kailua-Kona were able to accommodate much of the rockfall material without encroaching on the driving lanes.
Some damage occurred to dams and irrigation ditches in the Waimea-Kamuela area. Two dams experienced earth fill disturbance and cracks along their crests, while at least two others showed clear evidence of incipient slope failure on their embankments. A system of irrigation ditches feeding some of these reservoirs was interrupted due to debris blockage. Roadway embankments were affected at a series of locations, in one case resulting in the collapse of a traffic lane on the approach to a bridge. A few retaining walls collapsed, primarily poorly-built, un-reinforced and un-mortared rock walls.

17. Big Island Earthquake 2006: Port Facilities
Source Image:
The most pronounced damage at Kawaihae was the failure of 1950’s era Pier 1. This portion of the pier, which includes a concrete bulkhead wall, tie rods, anchor block and surrounding structures (Figure 7.15 shows and interpreted subsurface profile of the pier.), experienced a significant amount of damage. Primary damage and displacements greater than 15 inches occurred to Pier 1. Visible damage to the pier structure included:
Longitudinal cracks in the bulkhead cap, concrete sheetpile and rock revetments.
Yielding and necking of the tie rods, but no breakage with 4-6 inches lateral translation
and inches movement in the rip rap at the north end of the pier.
Significant settlement behind the anchor block and in pavements.
Other areas experience small deformations (less than 2 inches) and more minor damage. Piers 2, 2A and mooring dolphins which are 1960’s and 1990’s era structures experienced only minor cracking or spalling and remain in service. Terminal yard pavements experienced settlement and cracking damage. Terminal shipping warehouses, the harbor masters office and grain silage building also experienced racking, masonry cracking and minor cladding damage. The fuel tank farm and cement silo experienced only minor cracking. Several electrical and water utilities were broken. The cement and grouted rip rap storm drainage channel also experienced minor cracking displacements, but remained serviceable. – Chapter 7 State of HI Multihazard mitigation plan
“One of the two major commercial ports on the island of Hawai‘i, the commercial port facility at Kawaihae Harbor consists of two pile-supported concrete piers, a 500-foot long Pier 1 and the 1500-foot long Pier 2, which is operationally divided into Piers 2, 2A, and 2B and a few warehouse and administrative buildings, and an asphalt paved shipping container yard. An aerial picture of Kawaihae Harbor is included in Figure This facility was located less than 24 km (15 miles) from the epicenter of the Kīholo Bay Earthquake. “
Among the most badly damaged sites was a harbor on the west side of the island. One of the buildings at that site was a concrete frame structure with masonry infill. The infill created a condition known to earthquake engineers as a captive column, a condition that is particularly susceptible to failure during ground shaking. (The portion of the column between the top of the block wall and the roof beam is the only part that is free to flex. Concentration of the displacement in this short section results in very high strains, cracking, and spalling.) In addition to structural damage, the facility suffered liquefaction and lateral spreading of dredged fill material, causing considerable damage to the buildings and piers built upon it. -

18. Hawaii Earthquake 2006: Summary of Damages
1,800 homes
1 hospital
HECO statewide outage
Landslides/rockslides
Kawaihae port
Widespread non-structural damage
>US$200 million damages
Tourism Sites:
The Surety Kohala Corporation assessed the structural integrity to their Kohala Ditch, which functioned as a tourist attraction for 10 years. The ditch was deemed irreparable and unsafe, ultimately closing this money maker.
The Kalahikiola Congregational Church in Kohala was destroyed due to the collapse of the church's stone walls; the Hawi smoke stack, a relic of the old sugarcane trade, completely collapsed as well. The Hulihee Palace in Kailua Kona suffered extensive structural damage.[10] Another popular tourist area, Kealakekua Bay, home of the white monument to Captain James Cook, was swept over by massive landslides that caused the entire bay and its surrounding areas to momentarily disappear in a thick cloud of brown dust.[11]

19. Focus of Effort TE-29 Mitigation
Preventing future emergencies or minimizing their effects
  Includes any activities that prevent an emergency, reduce the chance of an
emergency happening, or reduce the damaging effects of unavoidable
emergencies.
  Buying flood and fire insurance for your home is a mitigation activity.
  Mitigation activities take place before and after emergencies.
Preparedness
Preparing to handle an emergency
  Includes plans or preparations made to save lives and to help response and rescue
operations.
  Evacuation plans and stocking food and water are both examples of preparedness.
  Preparedness activities take place before an emergency occurs.

20. Hawaii Earthquake Risk Assessment
FEMA’s Hazards US (HAZUS) computer program forecasting with Hawaii State Civil Defense.
Customized model using data on ground motion, building inventory, and soil to produce loss estimates for Maximum Considered Earthquake scenarios.
Average Annualized Loss (AAL) “an objective measure of expected future losses averaged on an annual basis.”
PER FEMA:
Risk Analysis: Government agencies must understand the full impact of natural hazards using applied multi-hazard engineering science and advanced technology in order to effectively plan to reduce natural hazard effects.
Examples:
HAZUS
Flood Hazard Mapping
National Dam Safety Program
Multi-Hazard Mitigation Planning
Risk Reduction: The goal of risk reduction is to reduce the risk to life and property, which includes existing structures and future construction, in the pre and post-disaster environments. This is achieved through regulations, local ordinances, land use, and building practices and mitigation projects that reduce or eliminate long-term risk from hazards and their effects.
Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) Grant Programs
Floodplain Management
National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP)
Building Science
AAL important ins decision making for natural hazard mitigation planning. AAL developed by factoring the estimated losses caused by Eqs by their probabilities of occurance.
Also worth discussing here FEMA”s National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP)
Source: HI State DoD/HSEAC, 2005

21. County of Hawaii Earthquake risk assessment (2005)
Vulnerability based on ground movement, soil , and critical facilities and lifelines.
Forecast probable scenarios based on historical data

22. FEMA HAZUS Scenario Outputs
Number of buildings damaged
Casualties
Shelter needs
Hospital bed availability
Aviation facilities
Communication sites
Police and Fire Station Damage
School Damage
Bridge Damage
Economic Loss
Debris Generated

23. FEMA Mitigation
National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) leads the federal government’s efforts to reduce the fatalities, injuries and property losses caused by earthquakes.
Integrated plans
NEHRP MISSION est. 1977
The mission of NEHRP is to develop, disseminate, and promote knowledge, tools, and practices for earthquake risk reduction—through coordinated, multidisciplinary, interagency partnerships among the NEHRP agencies and their stakeholders—that improve the Nation’s earthquake resilience in public safety, economic strength, and national security.

24. Hawaii Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan
Mitigation Plan Approach:
Type of Hazard
Significant History
Probability of Occurrence
Risk Assessment
Mitigation Strategies
Land Use
Coastal Erosion Mitigation Policies and Actions
State Building Code and Design Standards
Ocean Resources Management Plan Coastal Nonpoint Pollution Control Program
Ocean and Coastal Lands
Use of GIS Mapping to Enhance Hazard Information and Improve Effectiveness
Watershed Management
Energy Management

25. Preparedness Cycle
Plan
Organize/Equip
Train
Exercise
Evaluate/Improve

26. Preparedness: Train
“Hawaii Multi-Year Training and Exercise Plan identifies the training that will help the state build and sustain core capabilities needed to address its priorities and validate those capabilities in exercises leading to the update of plans and procedures.”

27. Preparedness: Organize/Equip/Train
Joint Field Office
The Joint Field Office (JFO) is the primary Federal incident management field structure.
The JFO provides a central location for the coordination of Federal, State, tribal, and local governments and private-sector and nongovernmental organizations with primary responsibility for response and recovery.
Although the JFO uses an ICS structure, it does not manage on-scene operations. Rather, the JFO provides support to on-scene efforts.

28. Train/Preparedness Exercise: Vigilant Guard/Makani Pahali
Source SAR Photo:

29. Preparedness: Great Hawaii ShakeOut
The earthquake drill ShakeOut began in California in 2008 and is now global. Hawaii joined in In 2015 more than 240,000 people in Hawaii participated. Source:

30. Preparedness: Train & Equip
Hawaii Emergency Management Agency
Hawaii Hazards Awareness and Resilience Program (HHARP)
Hawaii Chapter of the American Red Cross
Community Disaster Preparedness Training
Hawaii Chapter of the American Red Cross personal preparedness courses for neighborhood and community residents; agency staff and clients; school teachers, staff, parents, and administrators; and local business personnel.
Federal Emergency Management Agency
Community Emergency Response Teams (CERT)

31. Thank You

32. Select Resources:

33. Hawai’i and Climate Change: Complicating Factors
“Higher average temperatures, stressing native animals and plants and causing an uptick in heat-related illnesses in people (think dengue fever or cholera), as well as a higher concentration of invasive species.”
Climate Change Impacts in the United States CHAPTER 23 HAWAI‘I AND U.S. AFFILIATED PACIFIC ISLANDS
Source:
According to “Climate Change Impacts In Hawaii: A Summary Of Climate Change And Its Impacts To Hawaii’s Ecosystems And Communities,” which was paid for by Hawaii Tourism Authority (HTA), the oceans, rainfall, ecosystems and immunity of people who live on islands in the Pacific are all at peril. But what’s more, tourism — an industry responsible for most of the state’s annual revenue — might all but vanish.
Image Park Closed:
“It's certainly possible that [dengue] risk slightly increases under ideal climate conditions, and it's possible that El Niño has improved climatic conditions,” he said. “But at the same time, [an outbreak] requires other factors [besides climate]. Any impact of El Niño is probably small.”
Specifically, it takes three things to create a dengue outbreak: A positive environment for the mosquitos that carry the disease, susceptible humans who are exposed to mosquitos and a circulation of the dengue virus in the area. Globally, 50 to 100 million infections occur per year with 22,000 deaths. In areas where dengue is endemic, such as Southeast Asia, major outbreaks occur every 3 to 5 years.
“Those [outbreaks] sometimes correspond with El Niño events or particularly warm years, but they do not always ...” Johansson said. “A warm year or a strong El Niño year is not necessarily a predictor of [an outbreak], and you can get [one] without a strong El Niño.”
Wilbert van Panhuis, M.D., Ph.D., an assistant professor at the University of Pittsburgh who has extensively studied climate and dengue in Southeast Asia, agreed that the connection between the two is complex and tenuous, calling dengue a “multi-causal problem” that differs across the globe. Still, after an analysis of past outbreaks in Southeast Asia, van Panhuis did find a link — though not causation — between El Niño in the late '90s and dengue, perhaps because the Aedes mosquito that carries the disease thrives at higher temperatures.

34. Hawaii and Climate Change: Coastal Erosion
Rise in sea levels, projects a 1-foot to 3-foot rise (or possibly more) by 2100.
Moving south Oahu shoreline 1-mile inland. = No more Waikiki.
Estimated $2 billion annual loss in visitor revenue.
Photo Source:
That would mean most of Waikiki and its famous beach would either be underwater or highly eroded by it. The animation above, taken from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Viewer, shows what sea levels would look like around Waikiki and Honolulu in a worst case scenario: if sea levels rose 6 feet. The new shoreline would be almost a full mile inland (past the Waikiki hotel strip and into neighborhoods such as Kakaako, downtown Honolulu, and even Moiliili). Such a scenario would impact hotel revenues by as much as $661.2 million, with a scary $2 billion lost overall, each year.
Charles Fletcher, a UH geology professor who contributed to the report, told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser that he imagines that Oahu’s tourist nucleus would have to pack up and move, establishing a “new Waikiki” somewhere on higher ground. “By the end of the century, I would be surprised if Waikiki Beach is still there,” he said. Source:

35. Hawaii and Climate Change: Droughts and Flooding
A decrease in trade winds, which would disrupt the rainfall patterns across each of the islands and create periods of drought and heavy rain and flooding.
Drought leaves Hawaii more vulnerable to wild fires.

36. Hawaii and Climate Change: Marine Environment
Warmer oceans and higher
ocean acidity, which could
trigger massive coral bleaching, marine migration, and affect the ocean’s circulation and the way it distributes nutrients.

37. National Disaster Management Structure
Command and management
Laws and authorities
Preparedness
Resource management
Communication and information management
Operations and procedures
Exercises, evaluation, corrective action
Supporting technologies
Logistics, finance, admin, training
Roles and responsibilities
Families
Community
First Responders
County/District
State/Provincial
Regional
National/ Federal
Assistance should only resort to the National level when the lower levels are overwhelmed or unable to respond.
To be effective a there needs to be clear channels of communication and defined roles and responsibilities within a national DM framework.
Ideally it should have a strong base where the communities and the local levels are the strongest component in a National DM system and your National/Federal level is the last resort.
An NDMO should ideally function with inter- and intra-level coordination.
10 Components which should be included in a National Disaster Management Program/Strategy - EOC important for COP
Policy should focus on taking care of the most vulnerable, transparent and inclusive, driven in all spheres of govt., have legitimacy (be recognized by all)
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The focal point is the key agency that has the authority and resources to coordinate all related bodies for disaster management such as ministries, international agencies, NGOs and private sector.
This focal point Agency needs:
a core of well trained staff
adequate resources
should be supported by appropriate legislation and authority for decision making and implementation
NDMOs help decision makers determine the scope and translate the risk of disasters. Can also have disaster management councils. May work with a variety of people but it’s important to understand the levels of the community, their experience, training, and culture.