1. Integrating Convective Weather Forecasts with the Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) Jim Stobie and Bob Gillen, ENSCO, Inc. Wade Lester, Embry Riddle Aeronautical University

2. Integrated Airport Initiative (Florida NextGen Demonstration) A group of industry leaders to perform applied research and promote NextGen concepts Formed March, 2006 Catalyst for the development of what is now the Daytona Beach NextGen Test Bed Membership: Embry Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU) (co-lead), Lockheed Martin (co-lead), ENSCO, Mosaic ATM, Transtech, Boeing, CSC, Frequentis, Sensis, Volpe Center, Barco, Jeppesen, Harris, Daytona Beach International Airport and Volusia County

3. Overview 2008 Project Objective Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) En Route Automation Modernization (ERAM) A first step toward improving Weather in TMA and ERAM (18 Nov Demo) What’s Next?

4. Project Objective Network-enabled integration of predictive weather into TMA and ERAM –“Reduce Weather Impact” solution set in the NextGen Implementation Plan Problem Statement –During convective weather events, aircraft vector around the weather. This results in estimated time of arrival (ETA) and scheduled time of arrival (STA) diverging in TMA, rendering it ineffective. Controllers are forced to switch to miles-in-trail, which reduces airport arrival rates –Lack of common predictive weather information being displayed to the TMU Specialists, Supervisors and Controllers on ERAM and TMA Desired Outcomes –An open architecture (SWIM-like) to integrate predictive weather into ERAM and TMA –The integration of predictive weather into decision support tools to improve operations by allowing for proactive planning

5. Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) TMA is an ARTCC-based decision support tool designed to maximize airport arrival rates. TMA calculates a scheduled time of arrival for aircraft that allows the ARTCC to deliver an optimum rate to the TRACON based on runway acceptance rate and fleet mix. Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) use TMA to monitor and manage arrival demand via graphical displays, TGUI, PGUI and load graph (see later slides). ARTCC controllers use TMA information displayed on ERAM R-pos to Time Base Meter (TBM) traffic into the TRACON. They use speed, vectors and holding to meet scheduled meter fix crossing times. Metering times are displayed to controllers via lists and delay times associated with the data blocks of individual aircraft on R-pos display (see later slides). TMA Weather Data –TMA receives RUC upper level winds and temperatures for use in trajectory modeling –Convective weather forecasts are currently not received by TMA

6. TMA Reference Points* *From: NASA Ames, http://www.aviationsystemsdivision.arc.nasa.gov/research/foundations/tma.htmlhttp://www.aviationsystemsdivision.arc.nasa.gov/research/foundations/tma.html

7. TMA Timeline Graphical User interface (TGUI)* * From: Kim, C. (2006): TMA Integrated Metrics Model, Final Report, Howard University, 18 Oct 2006.

8. TMA Plain View Graphical User Interface (PGUI)* *From: NASA Ames, http://www.aviationsystemsdivision.arc.nasa.gov/research/foundations/tma.htmlhttp://www.aviationsystemsdivision.arc.nasa.gov/research/foundations/tma.html

9. TMA Load Graph* *From: NASA Ames, http://www.aviationsystemsdivision.arc.nasa.gov/research/foundations/tma.htmlhttp://www.aviationsystemsdivision.arc.nasa.gov/research/foundations/tma.html

10. ERAM Radar-Position (R-pos) (formerly DSR) –Situational display for controllers who are talking to aircraft and directing traffic –Next to each aircraft data block it display TMA delay requirement number in minutes –Displays metering information (STA, delay minutes) information next to each aircraft data block –Displays NEXRAD mosaics from WARP Data-Position (D-pos) (formerly URET) –Displays electronic flight data –Displays conflict probe information –Displays RUC upper level winds/temps

11. NEXRAD Mosaic Aircraft Data Block Sample ERAM R-pos Display

12. Sample ERAM D-pos Display

13. ERAM D-pos Wind Display

14. Current TMA/ERAM System ERAM receives Radar data, user commands including flight plans, RUC data (Wind and temperature) and NEXRAD weather data ERAM sends flight information and track data to TMA TMA generates metering data including Scheduled Time of Arrivals (STA) and delay value and sends them to ERAM ERAM displays STA and ETA deviations on R-pos aircraft data block R-pos Controller communicates metering data to pilot via voice communication During convective weather aircraft deviations extend flight path and result in late arrival of aircraft to metering fixes. Excessive delays may result in TMA metering not being used and reverting to less efficient “miles in trail”

15. 18 Nov Demo Scenarios Jacksonville Sectors ZJX33, ZJX49, ZJX78, ZJX15 Scenario 1 : Good Weather / Today’s System –Aircraft fly normal arrival –Aircraft cross metering fixes at Scheduled Time of Arrival (STA) Scenario 2 : Bad Weather / Today’s System –Aircraft vectored around convective weather –ETA diverges from STA as aircraft are vectored around weather Scenario 3 : Bad Weather / System Modifications –Aircraft flight plans amended and rerouted around convective weather prior to freeze horizon –Aircraft follow same trajectory around weather used in Scenario 2 –Aircraft cross metering fixes at STA

16. Demo Scenarios : Sectors

17. Significant Weather Day 9 August chosen for demonstration Typical summer pattern in Florida with “popup” thunderstorms along sea-breeze fronts Storm coverage allowed for in- sector rerouting 1100 Local1300 Local

18. Weather Forecast Data Source WRF Model chosen for study since it was already configured for Florida for use by NASA and by NWS in Melbourne, FL –Already set up to run over the FL peninsula and the output formats are clearly understood –Initialized with NEXRAD radar, 4 km resolution, 42 levels, run every 3 hours with 5 minute outputs (Composite Reflectivity and Echo Tops) –Polygons based on 35 dBZ, altitude set to FL 400 Originally, much larger time-scales (> 2 hours) were envisioned for the forecast data. –Covered extended timescales for strategic planning for Traffic Flow Management and shorter Tactical timescales –Single source for data would ensure consistency across timescales Demo timescale limited to 0-1 hours forecast period –Single sector used for demonstration –Moved the TMA freeze horizon in to 120 miles in order to use TMA within the targeted sector

20. Scenario 1 : Good Weather / Current System TMU Specialist –TMA displays STA/ETA based on filed flight plan –Sequence of aircraft arrivals fixed at freeze horizon ERAM R-Display –Datablock shows STA received from TMA –Aircraft arriving at metering fix at STA Scenario 1 demonstrated how TMA is used to provide effective flow in delivering aircraft to metering fixes during normal weather conditions

21. Scenario 2 : Bad Weather / Current System TMU Specialist –Reviews convective weather on various displays to develop a mental view of convective weather –Reviews arrivals on TMA PGUI to identify aircraft affected by convective weather –TMU updates ESIS, contacts AT Supervisor to notify of convective weather impact and reroute strategy ERAM R-Display –Aircraft vector around convective weather –Vectoring around weather causes delay in meeting STA –Excessive delays are displayed in the data block as aircraft deviate from flight plan –Aircraft arrives at metering fix behind schedule Switch to less efficient miles-in-trail

22. Scenario 3 : Bad Weather / System Modifications Convective Weather Forecast published via the Forecast Convective Weather service to TMA and ERAM TMA displays Convective Weather Constrained Areas on the PGUI ERAM performs 4D Trajectory conflict probe against 4D Convective Weather constrained areas and displays Forecast Convective Weather and Weather Conflicts on GPD D-Controller uses ‘Trial Plan Reroute’ to reroute aircraft around convective weather constrained areas R-Side Controller issues reroute to pilot via voice communication Pilot reroutes aircraft per flight plan amendment but deviates as required to adjust for weather conditions ERAM sends flight plan amendment to TMA TMA updates metering list ETA/STA and sends updated metering data to ERAM ERAM displays updated ETA/STA on R-Console in Data block and Metering List

23. Scenarios Summary Scenario 1 demonstrated how TMA is used to provide effective flow in delivering aircraft to metering fixes during normal weather conditions Scenario 2 demonstrated how TMA becomes less effective when convective weather requires aircraft to deviate from the planned flight path –Vectoring of aircraft extends flight path and results in late arrival to metering fixes –Excessive delays may result in TMA metering not being used and reverting to ‘miles in trail’ Scenario 3 demonstrated how enhancements could extend the use of TMA during convective weather –Provide common predictive weather information to the TMU/Controllers –Aid in the identification/resolution of convective weather conflicts –Flight plan amendments enable TMA to calculate an accurate trajectory to support effective calculation of aircraft STA/ETA to metering fixes

24. What’s Next? Replace WRF model forecast with more practical 0-1 hr forecast –CIWS Investigate products for longer term TMA projections (2-6 hours) –CoSPA Investigate how to incorporate forecast uncertainty

25. Backup Slides

27. FAA Products Several FAA products were considered for the study –Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) Polygons too large with insufficient detail for this effort –Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) Could be converted into forecast convective cells with some effort Original forecast period (>2 hours) prevented adoption Should be considered for follow-up work as timeframe has been reduced –Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA) Still in development stage at initial kickoff Should be included in future activities –Integrated Terminal Weather System (ITWS) Focus on Terminal area limits application beyond very close sectors

28. Outcome Summary Observed: –Convective weather forecast has been integrated into an existing automation system and decision support tool via an open architecture (SWIM-like) network Alternative forecast weather products (e.g. CIWS, CoSPA) that can be modified to meet the published ICD can be “plugged in” for assessment –Common situational awareness of forecast weather between TMU and controller –Updated flight information exchanged between ERAM and TMA –TMA has used an alternative source for its RUC winds data, via the SWIM-like network Remaining: –Research and metrics collection regarding improvement in the arrival flow during convective weather events

29. Scenario 2 : Bad Weather / Today’s System (2) TMA PGUI –Aircraft deviate from planned route when vectoring around convective weather. –TMA lacks information to determine revised trajectory –TMA uses reconformance logic to model trajectory and calculate ETA Scenario 2 demonstrated how TMA becomes less effective when convective weather requires aircraft to deviate from the planned flight path –Vectoring of aircraft extends flight path and results in late arrival to metering fixes –Excessive delays may result in TMA metering not being used and reverting to ‘miles-in-trail’

30. Scenario 3 : Bad Weather / System Modifications Convective Weather –Convective Weather data enters via “Weather and Research Forecast (WRF) model –Cx Weather Forecast published via the Forecast Convective Weather service to TMA and ERAM via an Enterprise Service Bus. TMA –TMA displays Convective Weather Constrained Areas (Polygons) on the PGUI –TMU specialist reviews convective weather impacts on PGUI “Minutes in Future” slider bar to review movement of convective weather Can filter Convective Weather constrained areas by altitude, Used to identify impacted aircraft and to develop strategy to route aircraft around convective weather –TMU updates ESIS and contacts AT Supervisor to notify of convective weather impact and reroute strategy

31. Scenario 3 : Bad Weather / System Modifications (2) ERAM –ERAM performs 4D Trajectory conflict probe against 4D Convective Weather constrained areas –ERAM updates D-Pos Aircraft list with Convective Weather Alerts for conflicts in Controllers sector. –ERAM displays Convective Weather Constrained Areas (Polygons) in the D-POS GPD window. –D-Controller reviews aircraft conflicts with convective weather in the Graphic Plan Display (GPD) Displays trajectory conflicts against 4D convective weather constrained areas –D-Controller can use enhanced ‘Trial Plan Reroute’ to point and click reroute around convective weather constrained area ‘Future Time’ slider bar displays aircraft and weather at a future point in time (Up to 60 minutes) Can zoom in/out on the GPD that selects a range from 25-1000 nmi Probes for Convective weather and aircraft conflicts –D-Side Controller submits ‘Trial Plan Reroute’ R-Side Controller issues reroute to pilot via voice communication Pilot reroutes aircraft per flight plan amendment –Pilot deviates as required to adjust for weather conditions ERAM updates/ publishes flight plan amendment via SWIM flight object and HADDS interface

32. Scenario 3 : Bad Weather / System Modifications (3) TMA –TMA receives flight plan amendment via HADDS Interface and recalculates flight trajectory and flight ETA/STA –TMA updates metering list ETA/STA on PGUI/TGUI –TMA sends updated metering list to ERAM via HADDS interface ERAM R-Console –ERAM receives updated metering data via HADDS Interface –ERAM displays updated ETA/STA on R-Console in Datablock and Metering List Flight plan amendments enable TMA to calculate an accurate trajectory to support effective calculation of aircraft STA/ETA to metering fixes