2. Route based forecasting Marcel Wokke M. Noort, J. Wisse, I. Smeding-Zuurendonk, D. van Dijke http://research.meteogroup.com

3. Route based forecasting Why route based forecasting? Requirements Example forecast Current developments!

4. Route based forecast instead of point forecast -2 C 0 C 2 C ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Why route based forecasting?

5. Infrared measurement

7. -0,2°C -0,9°C +1,6°C +2,6°C -1,6°C Infrared measurement

8. -0,2°C -0,9°C +1,6°C +2,6°C -1,6°C Infrared measurement

10. -0,2°C -0,9°C +1,6°C +2,6°C -1,6°C Infrared measurement

12. -0,2°C -0,9°C +1,6°C +2,6°C -1,6°C Infrared measurement

14. -0,2°C -0,9°C +1,6°C +2,6°C -1,6°C Infrared measurement

15. The entire road section is treated in the same way Is this useful? Reduction possible! Why route based forecasting?? Gritting:

16. Infrared measurement = observation Why route based forecasting??

17. Infrared measurement = observation Expected infrared measurement = Route based forecast Why route based forecasting? ?

18. Information about incoming and outgoing radiation  Skyview measurements Requirements

19. Skyview Requirements

20. Skyview Requirements

21. Sky view factor = 0.89 0º 1º 2º -1º -2º bron Google Sky view factor = 0.36 Skyview Requirements

22. Information about incoming and outgoing radiation  Skyview measurements  Solar view Requirements

23. Solar view 21st March 21st December Requirements

24. What do we need? Information about incoming and outgoing radiation  Skyview measurements  Solar view Meteorological information  Detailed weather forecast Requirements

25. Model for calculating road surface temperatures High resolution weather forecast (10 x10 km) Gridded MOS Database with for all routes: sky and solar view factor+ road characteristics Route based forecast Requirements Routbased forecast model

26. Example: 23/24 November 2007 16:00 h t=0all roads warmer than 5 degrees

27. 17:00 h t+1first roads below 5 degrees Example: 23/24 November 2007

28. 18:00 ht+2 Example: 23/24 November 2007

29. 19:00 ht+3 first roads below 3 degrees Example: 23/24 November 2007

30. 20:00 h t+4more roads below 3 degrees Example: 23/24 November 2007

31. 21:00 h t+5more roads below 3 degrees Example: 23/24 November 2007

32. 22:00 h t+6 Example: 23/24 November 2007

33. 23:00 h t+7 Example: 23/24 November 2007

34. 00:00 h t+8first roads below 1 degree Example: 23/24 November 2007

35. 01:00 h t+9 Example: 23/24 November 2007

36. 02:00 h t+10more roads below 1 degree Steel bridge below zero Open spots in country areas below zero Warm spots in the forest Example: 23/24 November 2007

37. 03:00 h t+11 Example: 23/24 November 2007

38. 04:00 h t+12 Example: 23/24 November 2007

39. 05:00 h t+13 Bridge critical! (Troad < Tdew) Example: 23/24 November 2007

40. Spots in country area critical 06:00 h t+14 Example: 23/24 November 2007

41. 07:00 h t+15 Example: 23/24 November 2007

42. 08:00 h t+16 Example: 23/24 November 2007

43. 09:00 h t+17 Example: 23/24 November 2007

44. 10:00 h t+18 Example: 23/24 November 2007

45. Dynamical gritting  Variable salt amount Dynamical routes  Temperature based route Current developments New gritting methods

46. Weather- and road forecasting on routes Optimize route- and salt dosage Local control Current developments

47. GIS derived skyview and solar view Current developments

48. GIS Google Earth

49. Current developments

50. Tree leaves Possibility: Vary the transparency of trees throughout the winter season to simulate leaf fall and growth! GIS can be useful but there are still many challenges!

51. The end