1. Black Swan An incident of extreme consequence, unexpected or considered highly improbable by forecasters and planners. Click here for Hint crisis or Black Swan or NGO?

2. bricolage A creation from what happened to be available during its formation. Click here for Hint bricolage or triage or resilience?

3. business continuity plan Guidelines and arrangements for response to disruption of critical business functions, to restore and maintain operation. Click here for Hint contingency plan or future states of nature or business continuity plan?

4. centralized organizational policy Assigning decision making and authority to one individual or set of individuals within a larger organization. Click here for Hint centralized organizational policy or NGO or business continuity plan?

5. chance event A distinct source, cause, or issue of uncertainty. Click here for Hint incident or chance event or crisis?

6. confirmation bias A tendency to favor information that supports a hypothesis and to suppress or neglect information that refutes it. Click here for Hint staging or outcome bias or confirmation bias?

7. contingency plan An alternate plan developed in anticipation of a possible obstacle to the original plan. Click here for Hint contingency plan or future states of nature or business continuity plan?

8. crisis The critical time prior to an impending change of great significance. Click here for Hint Black Swan or incident or crisis?

9. disruptive innovation A technological change that profoundly alters an existing market unexpectedly. Click here for Hint Black Swan or disruptive innovation or NGO?

10. expected value The mathematical expectation of a random variable, calculated as the weighted average of all possible values that may occur. Click here for Hint expected value or probabilistic or normalization?

11. framing Adopting too narrow a view in the analysis of a problem. Click here for Hint groupthink or sense-making or framing?

12. future states of nature A set of distinct conditions associated with a chance event, only one of which will actually occur. Click here for Hint future states of nature or probabilistic or optimization?

13. groupthink A tendency to neglect full critical evaluation of a decision in favor of minimizing conflict within a group of decision makers. Click here for Hint confirmation bias or groupthink or outcome bias?

14. incident An unscheduled event requiring immediate resolution. Click here for Hint incident or crisis or unknown unknown?

15. incident command system A predetermined structure that organizes available parties into one temporary organization to resolve an incident. Click here for Hint incident command system or NGO or yield management?

16. iterative planning Deliberately adjusting plans at short intervals, to reflect new information. Click here for Hint triage or iterative planning or workaround?

17. known unknown A source of uncertainty known to a decision maker, usually evident in past experience or data. Click here for Hint known unknown or unknown unknown or last-mile problem?

18. last-mile problem or last-kilometer problem) The challenge of completing delivery of a good or a service, especially if the destination is remote or disrupted by disaster. Click here for Hint known unknown or unknown unknown or last-mile problem?

19. newsvendor problem Choosing a quantity to meet a single period of uncertain demand, weighing the costs of ordering too much and too little. Click here for Hint probabilistic or newsvendor problem or safety stock?

20. NGO A nongovernmental organization, understood to be a nonprofit organization as well. Click here for Hint contingency plan or bricolage or NGO?

21. normalization A tendency to accept anomalies as normal events, particularly over time. Click here for Hint reliability or normalization or resilience?

22. optimization Identification of the best alternative. Click here for Hint optimization or expected value or reliability?

23. outcome bias A tendency to assume a process is acceptable if its output is acceptable. Click here for Hint optimization or outcome bias or expected value?

24. overbooking Commitment or sale of resource in excess of its actual availability. Click here for Hint incident or crisis or overbooking?

25. proaction Avoidance of preventable risk, the first and most basic stage of risk management. Click here for Hint proaction or probabilistic or resilience?

26. probabilistic Variable or not well known in advance; subject to randomness. This represents some uncertainty in planning. Click here for Hint known unknown or unknown unknown or probabilistic?

27. propagate To increase or spread elsewhere. Click here for Hint propagate or groupthink or redundancy?

28. redundancy Duplication of an element within a system. Click here for Hint reliability or resilience or redundancy?

29. reliability The probability that an element or a system will perform as specified. Click here for Hint reliability or resilience or redundancy?

30. resilience The ability of a system to adjust to or recover from a shock or sudden change. Click here for Hint reliability or resilience or redundancy?

31. risk The possibility of loss or the source of such a possibility. Click here for Hint crisis or risk or incident?

32. real-time The present point in time; now. Click here for Hint staging or real-time or workaround?

33. robustness Providing stable reliability despite changing conditions. Click here for Hint reliability or resilience or robustness?

34. safety stock Inventory held to protect against uncertain supply or demand. Click here for Hint safety stock or bricolage or redundancy?

35. sense-making Assigning meaning to experience. Click here for Hint framing or triage or sense-making?

36. situational awareness An individual or organization’s comprehension of the surrounding environment and its potential near-future states. Click here for Hint situational awareness or sense-making or framing?

37. staging Retrieving or positioning inventory or other resources before they are required. Click here for Hint staging or real-time or redundancy?

38. triage A priority rule creating sequences intended to yield the most value from distinctly limited resources. Click here for Hint NGO or triage or optimization?

39. unknown Uncertainty omitted from planning because the decision maker is unaware of its presence. Click here for Hint known unknown or unknown unknown or crisis?

40. workaround A temporary solution developed in response to an unexpected loss or obstacle. Click here for Hint workaround or robustness or redundancy?

41. yield management Policies and practices to maximize the benefit of a perishable resource such as service capacity. Click here for Hint yield management or groupthink or centralized organizational policy?