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Joseph Fitzwater, Senior Analyzing Hurricane Intensity with a New Classification for the 21 st Century.

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Presentation on theme: "Joseph Fitzwater, Senior Analyzing Hurricane Intensity with a New Classification for the 21 st Century."— Presentation transcript:

1 Joseph Fitzwater, Senior Analyzing Hurricane Intensity with a New Classification for the 21 st Century

2 Introduction Hurricane Katrina is the costliest natural disaster in US history. Its classification did not justify this extreme storm

3 The Saffir-Simpson Scale The current scale in use for classifying hurricanes Created in 1971 by Herbert Saffir and Robert Simpson Based solely on wind speed

4 Purpose of Capstone Create a modern classification for hurricanes before storms make landfall Base this classification on more than just winds More information on a hurricane used in a classification yields a more accurate product to share to citizens

5 Methodology 1) Determine availability of data 2) Find hurricane parameters where data is available, and the parameter is applicable to strength 3) Create a formula from these parameters to accurately rank hurricanes based on these parameters 4) Test this formula on past hurricanes at landfall for precision

6 1) Determine Availability of Data Data available from the NHC (National Hurricane Center) Only some data is available for older hurricanes

7 2) Find Hurricane Parameters Where Data is Available, and the Parameter is Applicable to Strength Parameters chosen based on availability of data in step 1 Parameters include: 1 minute sustained wind speed (As used by Saffir-Simpson scale, knots) Tropical storm force wind radii (knots) Hurricane storm force wind radii (knots) Pressure (mb) Velocity (knots)

8 Maximum One Minute Sustained Wind Speeds A major indicator in determining strength of storm Found near the eye wall of a hurricane

9 Wind Force Radii The amount of distance from the eye (center) of a hurricane where a specific wind speed is measured. Hurricane force wind radii: Distance from the center where hurricane force wind speed is measured (65 knots). Tropical storm force wind radii: Distance from the center where tropical storm force wind speed is measured (35 knots).

10 Pressure Generally parallels strength with maximum one-minute sustained winds of a hurricane. Measure of the barometric pressure of the center of the storm.

11 Velocity Hurricanes generally produce similar rainfall rates Huge indicator of flooding.

12 3) Create a Formula from these Parameters to Accurately Rank Hurricanes Based on these Parameters W= 1 minute maximum sustained winds T = Tropical storm force wind radii H = Hurricane force wind radii V = Velocity P = Pressure Produces Point Value (x) to be categorized

13 4) Test this formula on past hurricanes at landfall for precision

14 Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Rank

15 Category Classification

16 Hurricane Rank from Developed Formula

17 Conclusions The size of a hurricane’s impact has a significant impact on this project’s categorization system. Both the tropical storm and hurricane force wind radii provided a sufficient glimpse in determining areas of significant impact. Wind speed still bears a large weight in determining classification, but the introduction of additional parameters lessens its impact, since the Saffir-Simpson scale is solely based on winds. Velocity has a significant role in this classification, since flooding is a common bi-product of hurricanes.


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