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Multi-hazard assessments for building sustainable and resilient communities UCL-CAFOD partnership Melanie Duncan UCL EngD Candidate (melanie.duncan@ucl.ac.uk)
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“The only thing that is certain (in climate science) is that there will be surprises.” (SEI in FIC and HFP, 2010: 10)
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Climate Change in Context Climate Change Geophysical Hazards Resource miss- management Man-made Hazards Source: c12, Shutterstock Source: Zastol`skiy Victor Leonidovich, Shutterstock Source: SOPHII.org Source: Antonio V. Oquias, Shutterstock Geophysical Hazards Man-made hazards Resource mismanagement Climate Change
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Multi-hazards Hyogo Framework for Action Academia/ research Funding bodies NGOs Need to capture: Feedbacks and interrelations between hazards Dynamic nature of hazards across time and space Source: kentoh, Shutterstock
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CCA and DRR Debate Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) –Overlaps –Interactions –Discrepancies Role of science? Indigenous Knowledge Integration Multi-hazard Interdisciplinary Scaling up Mainstreaming DRR Participatory (H)VCA CCA External knowledge and science Source: Christian Aid (2010: 6)
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Process User Appropriate Intervention Indigenous knowledge Science Vulnerability/ capacity assessment
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Current approaches to Hazard Assessment How do NGOs currently assess hazards? London based interviews with: –INGOs –Consultants –Research Institutions –Donor organisations Desk studies and literature review Observations during workshops
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Themes Integrated sustainable development; Integrated risk management CCA and DRR are perceived to overlap Tools Science Single vs. multi-hazard Scale Feedback and evaluation ‘Add-ons’
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Systems thinking Complexities –Multi-hazard –Scenarios/ long-term perspective –Scale of analysis –Need to shift from impact to cause –Multi-stakeholder/ multi- sector Systems theory –Inherent and emergent –System dynamics –Multi-scale –Argues against linear, event-orientated views –Necessitates an interdisciplinary approach
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The Philippines Recent field visit to: –Metro Manila –Albay Province –Mindanao
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Hazard Assessments Multi-hazards: individual hazards collectively Exacerbating effects of land degradation Contextualisation of climate change DRR and CCA Science and indigenous knowledge integration: –Individual/ organisational –Source of science Scale Feedback and evaluation Source: author’s own
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Emergent Themes Political vs. natural systems Source: author’s own Source: adapted from wowlegaspi.com
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Emergent Themes Political vs. natural systems Source of science Emphasis on disaster response and preparedness Hazards Integration – development planning and water basin management Target audience? –Process –Dialogue Source: author’s own
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Process Users Appropriate Intervention Indigenous knowledge Science Vulnerability/ capacity assessment Source? Framework: Defining the system? Multi-level?
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The way forward What is the hazard? –Scientific, contextualised, analytical approaches Process: multi-hazard assessment Framework: systems theory –Naturally integrates concepts –Avoids linear, impact oriented approaches –Scenario planning Trial process in the New Year Any Questions? melanie.duncan@ucl.ac.uk
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References Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) in Feinstein International Center (FIP) and Humanitarian Futures Programme (HFP) 2010 Humanitarian Horizons: A Practitioners’ Guide to the Future [available online: http://www.humanitarianfutures.org/main/sites/default/files/Final_web_PGF.pdf last accessed: 15/11/10] Christian Aid, 2010. Integrating climate change adaptation into secure livelihoods, Adaptation Toolkit 1. International Council for Science (ICSU), 2010. A Science Plan for Integrated Research on Disaster Risk Addressing the challenge of natural and human-induced environmental hazards [available online: http://www.icsu.org/Gestion/img/ICSU_DOC_DOWNLOAD/2121_DD_FILE_Hazard_report.pdf last accessed: 18/11/10] Allenby, B. (2007). Earth systems engineering management. Environmental Science and Technology 41(23): 7960- 7965. Hjorth, P. and A. Bagheri (2006). Navigating towards sustainable development: A system dynamics approach. Futures 38(1): 74-92. Waltner-Toews, D. K., James K.; Marie-E Lister, Nina (2008). The ecosystem approach: complexity, uncertainty, and managing for sustainability. Chichester. Bibliography
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