1. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org Multi Product Ensembles (MPE) Craig Donlon, Mike McCulloch, John Stark Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom Presented at the 7 th GHRSST-PP science Team Workshop, Melbourne, Australia, 14-18 th May, 2008

2. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org Overview What is the Group on Earth Observation (GEO)? GEO Action DA-06-03 (GHRSST-PP GHRSST-PP activities Plans and issues Summary

3. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org Why do this? We need to have some way to easily compare our analyses and check for consistency. Inter-comparisons revolutionised GODAE We will learn a lot and provide a useful service to the seasonal and climate community (esp when coupled to the RAN) We will be able to make links to the JCSDA and test Radiance Assimilation system SSTskin and other outputs We will be able to follow up with good science and papers GEO want an action on ‘ensembles’ and GEO is high profile for EO Dick Reynolds said so in Townsville!

4. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org GEO/GEOSS will serve 9 Societal Benefit Areas 1. Reduction and Prevention of Disasters 2. Human Health and Epidemiology 3. Energy Management 4. Climate Change 5. Water Management 6. Weather Forecasting 7. Ecosystems 8. Agriculture 9. Biodiversity GHRSST-PP is a formal demonstration for GEO (Action DA-06-03, 2007-2009 Work plan) GHRSST-PP is GEOSS & GEO in Action

5. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org GEO Action DA-06-03 Demonstrate the application of the next generation SST observations provided by GHRSST-PP. Activities include: –Ensemble techniques to account for uncertainty estimates in output products (both analyses and observational products); –Use data assimilation techniques to assimilate GHRSST-PP products and improve output from ocean and atmospheric forecast systems; –Apply ensemble techniques to improve climate monitoring using global and regional SST data sets; –Organize and hold a series of focused working sessions/seminars to initiate an in-depth, continuous scientific and technical dialogue between the ocean/weather/climate modelling community and other scientific communities – potential users and/or developers of ensemble techniques. Promote the development of these activities through advocacy for international collaboration at organization-, government-, and/or agency- level to help connect most relevant entities and communities for project implementation. Work effectively together as a communiuty

6. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org High Resolution SST/Sea Ice Analysis for GHRSST-PP (14/10/2006)

7. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org 14/10/2006, ESA Medspiration L4 2km Mediterranean http://www.medspiration.org

8. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org 14/10/2006: Japan Regional data sets (NGSST), 5km resolution (Kawamura, U. Tohoku) http://www.ocean.caos.tohoku.ac.jp/ Blend of AMSR-E and AVHRR – available as a time series from 2002-07-01 in binary format

9. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org Lei Guan, Hui Zhang, Liqin Qu and Haiyan Fan (Ocean Remote Sensing Institute Ocean University of China) Merged SST in South China Seas

10. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org BLUElink Regional High-Resolution SST Analysis System Based on BoM operational, optimal interpolation SST analysis system Resolution: Daily, 1/12° Data sources: AVHRR SST1m (Local 1km, Global 9km) AATSR SSTskin (17km) AMSR-E SSTsubskin L2P (25 km) In situ bulk SST from GTS NCEP ice edge data Beta test daily foundation SST analyses (available by 0130 UT) Operational at BoM by end of 2006 Australian contribution to GHRSST-PP as L4 files More information: http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/ocean/BLUElink/SST_external.html

11. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org Regional Inter-comparisons Australian Bureau of Meteorology BoM Operational Regional SST1m Met Office Global OSTIA SSTfnd BoM Test Regional SSTfnd CMAR 3 Day AVHRR SST1m Helen Beggs, Australian BoM

12. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org Regional comparisons… Jiping Xie, Jiang Zhu & Yan Li Chinese coastal shelf sea

13. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org Analysis Comparison (OSTIA – FOAM) OSTIA Proto-Ensemble Developed in response to user request for SST products for seasonal forecasting. Standardised data sets & colour scale –Re-gridded to ½ degree data (area avg.) –Global & North Atlantic projections. Now used to monitor OSTIA & FOAM. Also ingest RTG-SST & OIv2 Climatological Anomalies Climatology Comparison

14. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org Verification: PME/Inter-comparisons : Uncertainty estimation and confidence building Optimal way forward - preserves regional autonomy maximises benefits to user community Requires a framework to deliver the ensemble product – L4 format descriptor Stimulates better products and scientific/production interactions Time SST fnd (K) Mike McCulloch, MetOffice)

15. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org MPE: April – September 2006

16. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org Regional MPE output Area 3: Mediterranean (18  E, 35  N)

17. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org Regional MPE output Area 2: Barents Sea (40  E, 74  N)

18. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org Regional MPE output Area 3: Galapagos (110  W, 0.0  N)

19. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org

21. HR-DDS: QC and ensemble monitoring tools http://www.hrdds.net

22. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org Godiva2 DATA WMS Web server HTML, Javascript Web server and WMS could be co-located WMS = OGC-compliant Web Map Service metadata (XML) images (PNG) DATA WMS Could use images from many other WMSs

23. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org The Godiva2 website http://lovejoy.nerc-essc.ac.uk:8080/ncWMS/godiva2.html NetCDF data converted to images on the fly and served through a WMS. Displayed in a draggable, zoomable map (OpenLayers)

24. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org Selection of time (range) WMS supports the TIME dimension Selection of a time range leads to generation of an animation

25. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org Finding the data value at a point Click on the data layer, data value is shown Uses GetFeatureInfo part of WMS specification

26. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org Timeseries plots If a time range is selected, can create a timeseries plot at a point Uses GetFeatureInfo with a time range and “format=image/png”

27. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org Synergy of climate and real time systems

28. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org Framework for inter-comparisons L4 format should be the baseline –But need other things too!! Agree key dynamics areas (Gulf of Mexico, WBC, central ocean, ice edge (greenland) Agree regional areas (global extractions to GHRSST-PP regions) Agree time periods Agree the Verification areas (area and obs system)

29. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org Issues for GHRST-PP (1) Working together helps improve our analyses (Helens Talk) Need to be more formal though: Follow the ideas and metrics raised in Cummings presentation GHRSST-PO plans an MPE ‘service’ as part of the QC/verification and uncertainty estimation for OSTIA and as part of its role in MyOcean Some key L4’s are in non GHRSST-PP format and are not easily used Include –Mainly L4 metrics: QC outputs, formal analysis metrics, choose areas of interest (W Boundary currents, include L3 ‘truth’ fields (K10, L3P LeBorgne, imagery – DDS system?), –Agree the Validation areas –Time series at locations –Animations –Gradients (Emmanuel is the Queen!!) –Spectral analysis –Hovmöller plots (GODAE Metrics lines XBT, Clivar repeat sections) –2d fields + anomalies –Global and regional –Use WMS and other tools (e.g., Reading – they have JAVA server software?? Others??)

30. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org Issues for GHRSST-PP (2) What about sea ice (see inconsistencies?) Routine ops and intensive experiment period 2m 6m? –Intensive period to compute performance metrics Jmin etc Do we want to include Altimeter data and Ocean Colour using the same toolkit? The DDS is complementary to this activity but could also be used to develop some of this functionality (better as data are more complete?) – complementary activities? Does it need to be an open site or closed site? (anonymous or labelled) issue or non-issue. Do we need in situ data? How can we connect to analysis experiments and their outputs (Radiance assimilation outputs) Aim for a 2 nd GHRSST-PP paper in 2008/9?

31. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org Conclusion GHRSST-PP is the community to run SST L4 MPE studies Better join up with Radiance Assimilation groups We will learn a lot about our products and the RAN will greatly benefit We have a way to provide some uncertainty estimate for the analyses beyond the model High profile activity within GEO (report later this year to the GEO Plenary) BUT, it needs your L4 support and I need you to sign up through your GEO National Representatives Need to kick off a L4-Metrics-TAG to manage the activity –Scientific community MUST be involved –Operational centres must be involved Met Office are happy to coordinate the operational centres and basic framework under the GEO action which we lead

32. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org 1-Lead-POCUnited Kingdom UK Met OfficeCraig Donloncraig.donlon@metoffic e.gov.uk 2-LeadGreeceGeneral Secretariat for Research and Technology GSRT I. Tsoukalassecgenof@gsrt.gr 3-ContributorFinlandFinnish Meteorological Institute Mikhail SofievMikhail.Sofiev@fmi.fi 3-ContributorThailandThai Meteorological Department Chongkolnee Yusabye chongkolnee@tmd.go. th 3-ContributorUSANOAAAnts LeetmaaAnts.leetmaa@noaa.g ov 3-ContributorUSANOAABill NeffWilliam.neff@noaa.gov 3-ContributorWMOWMO THORPEXDavid BurridgeDBurridge@wmo.int 3-ContributorWMONCEPZoltan Tothzoltan.toth@noaa.gov 3-ContributorWMO Jim Caugheyjcaughey@wmo.int 3-ContributorWMOCommission for Climatology (CCl) Omar Baddourobaddour@wmo.int Australia? China?` France? Italy? Japan? Korea? ??

33. http://www.ghrsst-pp.org International GHRSST-PP Project Office MetOffice, Fitzroy Road Exeter, EX1 3PB United Kingdom Web: http://www.ghrsst-pp.org E-mail: craig.donlon@metoffice.gov.uk