1. Long-term climate change & Short-term climate variability

2. Climate Based on http://www.fsl.noaa.gov/~osborn/CG_Figure_10.gif.html is the average weather pattern for an area over a period of time It is determined by RainfallTemperature which are influenced by & LatitudeElevationOcean Currents & affects where people livewhat they grow & eathow people live

3. Since the last ice age

4. GISP2 stable isotope record

5. Younger Dryas – snow accumulation

6. Temperature last 11,000 years

7. Arctic temperatures 6000 years B.P.

8. Historical perspective Awareness of climate variability for thousands of years: e.g. their local histories & folklore. –Levels of yearly Nile flood levels recorded as early as 3000 B.C. –Egyptian tombs have written records & pictures of years of drought & famine –Climatic catastrophes such as floods occur in numerous accounts

9. Early scientific writings Aristotle (384-322 B.C.) first wrote on climate change in a critical manner: " The same parts of the Earth are not always moist or dry, but they change according as rivers come into existence or dry up. And so the relation of land to sea changes too, and a place does not always remain land or sea throughout all time.... But we must suppose these changes to follow some order and cycle." From: http://www.carleton.ca/~tpatters/teaching/climatechange/climateawareness/aware15.html

10. Early scientific writings Pliny the Elder (A.D. 23-79) stated in his Natural History Book XVI, 15, that the beech tree (fagus), which he regarded as a mountain tree that descended to the plain in northern Italy, formerly grew within the precincts of Rome itself but did so no longer in his day. " The climate was now too hot there, as it was also for chestnut trees." From: http://www.carleton.ca/~tpatters/teaching/climatechange/climateawareness/aware16.html

11. Early scientific writings Chin Li-Hsiang (A.D. 1252-1303) studied evidence of the pattern of cultivation in China during the Chou, Chin & two Han dynasties (900 B.C. - A.D. 220) & determined that the climate then had been rather warmer than in his own time From: http://www.carleton.ca/~tpatters/teaching/climatechange/climateawareness/aware16.html

12. Andean Civilizations & Climate

13. Northern Hemisphere temperature Mann et al., 1999

14. 5 major phases in Northern Hemisphere in last 1400 years The medieval climatic optimum Also called “Europen Warm Period” “Little Climatic Optimum” 700 – 1200 AD

16. Timeline 874 Settlement of Iceland begins 930 >25,000 people living in Iceland 935 Settlement of Greenland begins 1020-1200 Minimal sea ice cover around Iceland 1080-1180Mild winters, dry summers 1100 70,000 people in Iceland

17. 5 major phases in the Northern Hemisphere in last 1400 years Medieval Glaciation 1200-1460 AD

18. Timeline Late 1100’s Sharp decrease in Camp Century (Greenland) ice-core 18 O content signals lower temperature in North Atlantic region 1200 Increased sea ice in coastal water of Iceland 1200’s Glaciers advance into Iceland & Europe

19. Timeline 1300’s Decline of vineyard in Germany; loss of vineyard in England By 1350 Fishing replaces cereal crops as main food resource in Iceland By 1350 Western settlement in Greenland found abandoned 1410 Last reliable account of Norsemen in Greenland

21. 5 major phases in the Northern Hemisphere in last 1400 years Brief climatic improvement 1460 – 1560 AD

22. 5 major phases in the Northern Hemisphere in last 1400 years Little Ice Age 1560 – 1890 AD

23. Timeline 1600 Eruption of Huaynaputina volcano (Peru) causes severe short-term cooling 1600 Dramatic increase in sea ice in coastal water of Iceland that lasted until early 20 th century 1600’s Glaciers advance across Europe 1693 Hekla (Iceland) volcano erupts

24. Timeline 1693 Hekla (Iceland) volcano erupts 1694 Unfavorable for crops in Europe 1695 Cold rainy summer, early autumn frost 1696 Still cold and wet conditions 1695-1698 Great famine of Estonia – 75,000 people dies

25. Price of wheat, 1200-1900

26. Skies/clouds in paintings

27. 5 major phases in the Northern Hemisphere in last 1400 years Modern climatic optimum 1890 - 2001 AD

29. Mean Global Temperature

30. GISP2 ECM record