1. The Arab Spring December 17, 2010: -Igniting spark was the self-immolation of a Tunisian fruit & vegetable vendor, leading to protests throughout the country

2. Bouazizi dies on January 4, 2011 … and President Ben Ali’s rule comes to an end on January 14, 2011. Following the example of Tunisia, protests against governments and calls for reforms emerge throughout the Arab world: January 2011: -first protests in the streets of Egypt, Morocco, Syria, Oman, Yemen -Especially noteworthy are huge protests in Tahrir Square in Cairo, Egypt, against President Hosni Mubarak

3. February 2011: -The Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak resigns on February 11 -On February 15, protests break out in neighboring Libya against Muammar Gaddafi’s regime, developing into the Libyan Civil War

4. In coming months unrest can be witnessed from Morocco to Bahrain -protesters in Morocco demand reforms and social justice -protesters in Bahrain demand greater political freedom and equality for Shia majority under a Sunni government - in March 2011 troops from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States intervene to support Al Khalifa’s monarchy - dozens are killed; the West remains largely silent due to security interests via Iran; the revolt is crushed; various Shia mosques are destroyed throughout the nation Bahrain Pearl Roundabout in Manama King Al Khalifa

5. June 2011: -President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen is injured and flees the country August 2011: -Military crackdown in Syria against protesters; the US and the EU call for Assad to step down -Battle of Tripoli between loyalists and National Transitional Council; Gaddafi is essentially overthrown and goes into hiding October 2011: -Gaddafi is killed by rebels in the city of Sirte in Libya; the “National Transitional Council” will de facto become the Libyan government

6. November 2011: -protests in Cairo’s Tahrir Square against the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (in power since Mubarak’s resignation) February 2012: -Former Yemeni President Saleh officially resigns and transfers to Vice-President Al-Hadi -Syrian government attacks the city of HomsHoms -Increased weakening of Libya’s “National Transitional Council” and clashes between Arab Zawi and African Tebu groups in Libya April 2012: - Protest in Egypt for a transfer of power and democratic elections

7. May 2012: -Syrian regime kills more than 100 people (including children) in the Houla massacre June 2012: -Hosni Mubarak sentenced to life in prison by Egyptian court; Mohamed Morsi (Muslim Brotherhood) elected new President of Egypt

8. July 2012: -Syrian situation gets worse, now officially Civil War; Syrian regime forces and opposition forces begin battle of Aleppo; hundreds are killed; already more than 200,000 refugees fled country August 2012: - General National Congress in Libya takes over power from NTC September 2012: -Free Syrian Army moves headquarters from S-Turkey into N-Syria October 2012: -Free Syrian Army makes territorial gains November 2012: -Protests against Morsi after he grants himself unlimited powers

9. December 2012: -Controversial referendum in Egypt about a new constitution, signed into law in late December January 2013: -Protests against Morsi on second anniversary of 2011 revolution February 2013: -Syrian rebels begin offensive on Damascus; death toll in the country exceeds 70,000 March 2013: -Syrian rebels capture Raqqa

10. July 2013: -Morsi is deposed as President of Egypt in a coup d-etat August 2013: -Syrian government hits Ghouta and other areas in Syria with chemical attacks (sarin nerve agent) killing up to 1,000 people January 2014: - Syrian opposition faces ISIS, a new group surfacing in the region

11. February 2014: -Government in Egypt resigns; army chief al-Sisi can run for President May 2014: -Al-Sisi elected Egyptian President; Syrian rebels withdraw from Homs June 2014: - Situation in Libya deteriorates as fighting between groups escalates - ISIS declares caliphate in territory from Aleppo to eastern Iraq and Raqqa eventually becomes the ISIS capital

12. September 2014: -US and five Arab countries launch airstrikes against ISIS in Aleppo and Raqqa November 2014: -armed group Ansar Beit al-Maqdis on Egyptian Sinai peninsula pledges allegiance to ISIS and declares the Sinai Province December 2014: -Beji Caid Essebsi elected President in Tunisia January 2015: -Kurdish forces push ISIS out of Kobane in Syria; ISIS takes a foothold in Libya in the port city of Sirte February 2015: -Egyptian air force carries out strikes against ISIS in eastern Libya; Egypt seeks UN mandate for international intervention in Libya

13. May 2015: -ousted President Morsi sentenced to death for a mass breakout of Muslim Brotherhood prisoners back in 2011 -ISIS seizes the ancient city of Palmyra in Syria, destroying artifacts June 2015: -ISIS gunman kills 38 tourists at the resort Sousse in Tunisia; government closes extremist mosques in response -In Syria fight between Kurdish fighters and ISIS intensifies between Raqqa and Turkish border

14. July 2015: -ISIS launches attack in North Sinai September 2015: -Russia gets increasingly involved in Syria, carries our first airstrikes, saying it targets ISIS but West claims it targets Syrian opposition October 2015: -ISIS claims responsibility for downing of Russian airliner in Sinai; 224 people on board of Airbus A321 get killed

15. November 2015: -British ISIS militant known as “Jihadi John” dies in a drone attack; he appeared in several ISIS propaganda films depicting beheadings December 2015: -France launches air strikes against ISIS after November Paris attacks January 2016: -ISIS destroys oldest Christian monastery in Iraq (1,400 years old) -Since the beginning of this year, the tide for Syria’s Assad has been changing as a result of Russia’s increasing involvement in the region

16. General Causes for the Arab Spring Internal Factors 1)leaders are too authoritarian and dictatorships have outlived their legitimacy 2)region has a poor economy -low GDP and very little growth -economy dominated by the state with big public sectors -little engagement with global economy -non-oil exports of the Arab world equals that of Finland 3) Large part of Arab society is young (60-65%) - high unemployment - prone to political shifts

17. External Factors Why did the Arab Spring (as the Green Wave) not happen earlier? 1)Technology - efficient grassroots organizing made possible with twitter, Facebook and smart phones 2)Food Security & Security in Other Important Commodities - global shortages and changes in food production; impacts of global warming; occurrence of severe droughts - rising food prices in poor countries leads to societal issues - fluctuation in gasoline prices (see Jordan) can also act as triggers

18. Lessons of the Arab Spring (Vali Nasr lecture: “The Arab Spring – Where Do We Go From Here”)The Arab Spring – Where Do We Go From Here 1)Despite Negative Developments, Important general gains: - Arab world didn’t have a public sphere before - despite setbacks, people have developed a sense of empowerment - growing sense of the right to vote, social justice, right to protest, and governmental accountability - thus far the only country with a successful transition to a more democratic society seems Tunisia (“revolution of the Middle Class”) 2)Challenges of political organizing: - Arab liberals not well organized; revolutions in Iran and Egypt happened too early; amorphous uprising without leader(s) - well organized entities like Muslim Brotherhood jumped in, but had different goals; the West didn’t know how to deal with them - while countries like Tunisia and Egypt are fairly homogenous, others are more diverse with many rivaling interests

19. Religious Composition of Middle Eastern Areas Example LebanonCore Area of Middle East - The rise of ISIS explained in 14 mapsThe rise of ISIS explained in 14 maps

20. 3)Unfinished Business in the Middle East: - colonial powers left, but countries they created remain, as do ethnic compositions and power structures (political and economic) - Bahrain: Sunni minority rules a Shia majority - Syria: Alawite minority rules Sunni majority - Iraq: post-Saddam Shia government rules Sunni minority - disenfranchised groups have become larger but their status as secondary citizens remains - dictatorships have been suppressing a resolution of this issue - importance of national identity vs. national citizenship - Middle East needs a successful “Civil Rights Movement” 4)Lack of investment in the Middle East: - no democratization without investments and economic growth - 1990s: $100 billion invested in E-Europe & $ 0 in the Middle East - priorities: $ 2 trillion on war to bring “change” but not economy? - religious and political reformation facilitated by economic success? (current situation in Iran?)