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Hsueh-Hong(Constance)Wang Visiting Scholar Sigur Center for Asian Studies Elliott School of International Studies The George Washington University Thursday, December 5, 2013
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Stands for Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement 12 negotiation partners across Asia-Pacific region Originated from P-4: Singapore, New Zealand, Chile, Brunei(2006) US, Australia, Peru, Vietnam(2008) Malaysia(2010) Mexico, Canada(2012) Japan(2013) Taiwan(?)
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Current TPP members
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We are delighted to have achieved this milestone in our common vision to establish a comprehensive, next generation regional agreement that liberalizes trade and investment and addresses new and traditional trade issues and 21st-century challenges.
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29 chapters/similar structure to recent US FTAs: Market access in goods and services Rules: government procurement, foreign investment, technical barriers to trade, trade remedies, SPS measures, IPRs, environmental protection, labor.. Cross-cutting issues: regulatory coherence, competitiveness, business facilitation, small and medium-sized companies, SOEs..
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Aiming to conclude the negotiation by the end of 2013 is one of the most significant trade blocs globally TPP % of world GDP: 39.0% (2012)(US$28,136.0 billion ) TPP % of world population: 11.3% (2012)(792.8 million) TPP % of world trade: 25.8% (2012)
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US plays a leading role: -revitalizing its economy TPP members -represent a $1.7 trillion trading relationship for the US -Account for 45% of US exports If concluded: further expand its export market and support growth of its economy
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TPP also serves several strategic goals for US -the economic element of its “rebalancing toward Asia” -affirms its engagement in the region -shape the region’s trade and investment rules and norms
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Taiwan is a major trading nation which exports of goods and services accounts for 74% of its GDP Five of Taiwan’s top ten export destinations are TPP parties- -40.10% of Taiwan’s total trade
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Expand market access as an external driver of domestic economic reform Diversify its market which is overly dependent on China a means to counter South Korea's proactive free trade agreement strategy
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Strengths Geopolitical importance -situated in the first chain of islands -Taiwan Strait serves as an indispensable route to all Asian countries
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Sound economic performance -27 th largest economy with annual GDP of 747 billion and the 7 th largest in Asia -close business ties with current TPP parties- Five of top ten export destinations are TPP parties, representing 40.1% of Taiwan’s total trade
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business sector known for its competitiveness in ICT manufacturing -an integral part the global supply chain, Include Taiwan in TPP would strengthens and further enables the production networks -With ECFA in place, TPP member can use Taiwan as a gateway to the Greater China market
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-structural economic problems -disruptive domestic politics -the leader is lack of political capital to invest in promoting TPP -sectoral interest over national interest as a whole
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China factor Limited FTAs The future of TPP standing trade issues with TPP parties
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-TPP is open to all APEC economies -ANZTEC and ASTEP in place may help pave the way to TPP -Japan expresses its support for Taiwan’s bid -key members in the US Congress voice their support -China expresses its interest in joining TPP
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Rejuvenate the bilateral economic ties Taiwan shares the common values of freedom, democracy, rule of law and market-oriented economy can fulfill its commitment of “the US would remain committed to a strong relationship with Taiwan, an important security and economic partner” - without Taiwan would be a missing link in TPP, US should go beyond the economic façade and weigh in on the political calculation
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Domestically-need desicive leadership and skill Make joining TPP a more urgent priority -several actions need to be taken: roll out economic roadmap (including tackle thorny trade issues) Better Communicating with stakeholders Build up consensus among parties Ratify the Cross-Strait Service Pact-send a signal to TPP partners that Taiwan is ready
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Trumpet the cause- Announce its will to join right after TPP is concluded-among the first of late comers With US -convince the US it’s in its interest for Taiwan to join TPP and US should facilitate it. With Other TPP members: -Kick off bilateral consultations- confidence-building measures
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TPP is vital for Taiwan to keep up pace with its regional competitors by expanding its market beyond dependence on China It’s in the US interest to help Taiwan to join. US should demonstrate its political determination to “take on the cause”. Taiwan need to restore TPP members’ confidence by tackling standing trade issues.
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It takes efforts from both Taiwan and US to work- As soon as Taiwan signals its determination, US should respond reciprocally in a timely fashion to facilitate Taiwan’s accession
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Cause baby, There ain't no mountain high enough Ain't no valley low enough Ain't no river wide enough To keep me from getting to you Remember the day I set you free I told you You could always count on me From that day on I made a vow I'll be there when you want me Some way,some how
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Thank you!
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