1. Intercomparison and Evaluation of Dust Prediction Models WMO SDS-WAS Regional Center for Northern Africa Middle East and Europe sdswas@aemet.es Presents: Enric Terradellas eterradellasj@aemet.essdswas@aemet.eseterradellasj@aemet.es WMO SDS-WAS programme. Conference call 15 Nov 2012

2. Outline WMO SDS-WAS programme Regional Center for Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe http://sds-was.aemet.es sdswas@aemet.es The models Joint visualization Generation of multi-model products Evaluation of dust AOD using AERONET data Evaluation of surface concentration Evaluation of vertical profiles Time-averaged products Guidance for forecasters The models Joint visualization Generation of multi-model products Evaluation of dust AOD using AERONET data Evaluation of surface concentration Evaluation of vertical profiles Time-averaged products Guidance for forecasters

3. The models MODELINSTITUTIONRUN TIME DOMAINDATA ASSIMILATION BSC- DREAM8b BSC-CNS12RegionalNo CHIMERELMD00RegionalNo LMDzT-INCALSCE00GlobalNo MACCECMWF00GlobalMODIS AOD DREAM- NMME-MACC SEEVCCC12RegionalMACC analysis NMMB/BSC- Dust BSC-CNS12RegionalNo MetUMU. K. Met Office 00GlobalNo GEOS-5NASA00GlobalMODIS reflectances NGACNCEP00GlobalNo VARIABLES: Dust surface concentration – Dust Optical Depth at 550 nm LEAD TIME: 0 – 72 hours, every 3 hours GEOGRAPHICAL DOMAIN: 25ºW – 60ºE, 0 – 65ºN VARIABLES: Dust surface concentration – Dust Optical Depth at 550 nm LEAD TIME: 0 – 72 hours, every 3 hours GEOGRAPHICAL DOMAIN: 25ºW – 60ºE, 0 – 65ºN

4. Joint visualization. Dust AOD at 550 nm RUN: 21 Oct 2012 VALID: 21 Oct 2012 12:00 – 24 Oct 2012 00:00

5. Joint visualization. Surface concentration RUN: 21 Oct 2012 VALID: 21 Oct 2012 12:00 – 24 Oct 2012 00:00

6. Generation of multimodel products Model outputs are bi-linearly interpolated to a common 0.5ºlon x 0.5ºlat grid mesh. Then, different multi-model products are generated: CENTRALITY: median - mean SPREAD: standard deviation – range of variation Model outputs are bi-linearly interpolated to a common 0.5ºlon x 0.5ºlat grid mesh. Then, different multi-model products are generated: CENTRALITY: median - mean SPREAD: standard deviation – range of variation

7. Generation of multimodel products Model outputs are bi-linearly interpolated to a common 0.5ºlon x 0.5ºlat grid mesh. Then, different multi-model products are generated: CENTRALITY: median - mean SPREAD: standard deviation – range of variation Model outputs are bi-linearly interpolated to a common 0.5ºlon x 0.5ºlat grid mesh. Then, different multi-model products are generated: CENTRALITY: median - mean SPREAD: standard deviation – range of variation Do we publish it on the web?

8. nrt evaluation using AERONET data TAMANRASSET_INMSANTA_CRUZ_TENERIFE

9. Evaluation scores using AERONET data Monthly Seasonal Annual Monthly Seasonal Annual Besides dust, there might be other aerosol types. Therefore, negative BE could be expected.

10. Evaluation scores using AERONET data Monthly Seasonal Annual Monthly Seasonal Annual Besides dust, there might be other aerosol types. Therefore, negative BE could be expected. Do we compute other statistics, i.e. correlation coefficient?

11. TAMANRASSET_INM PI: E. Cuevas

12. Do we evaluate using coarse mode and/or any information regarding size distribution?

13. Exploring the use of visibility to evaluate dust surface concentration Meteorological stations PM10 = 914.06 V -0.73 + 19.03 D’Almeida (1986) TSP = 1339.84 V -0.67 Ben Mohamed et al. (1992) Tegen and Lacis (1996) Koschmieder equation

14. Terra/MODIS 12 Mar 2012 08:20 CAIRO, EgyptAKROTIRI, Cyprus BATMAN, Turkey Available at http://sds-was.aemet.es/models

15. NIAMEY, NigerBAMAKO, Mali

16. NEJRAN, Saudi Arabia Terra/MODIS 17 Mar 2012 17:00 KUWAIT Int. Apt., Kuwait SEEB, Oman

17. NEJRAN, Saudi Arabia Terra/MODIS 17 Mar 2012 17:00 KUWAIT Int. Apt., Kuwait SEEB, Oman Do we exchange surface extinction (at the lowest model level) for verification?

18. Exploring the use of lidar to evaluate dust vertical profiles

19. Monthly averages

20. Do we produce monthly averages with other models?

21. Guidance for forecasters

22. Thanks for your attention !! WMO SDS-WAS programme Regional Center for Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe http://sds-was.aemet.es sdswas@aemet.es http://sds-was.aemet.es sdswas@aemet.es