1. Action 2.4-2.5 : Large scale Hydrological cycle Valerio Lucarini, Ida Kriegerová, Róbert Danihlík, Antonio Speranza Athens, January 2007 HYDROCARE Hydrological cycle of the CADSES region

2. 2 Area of interest CADSES region defined by INTERREG III B CADSES Neighbourhood Programme The area bounded by 0° - 40° longitude and 35° - 60° latitude HYDROCARE Hydrological cycle of the CADSES region Bratislava, June 27, 2006

3. 3 Back to the Danube. Basics   Data sources: – –ERA-40 reanalysis data – –NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data – –Regional Climate Models Control data – Prudence project – –Global Runoff Data Center – GRDC – –Met Office, Hadley Center, UK (driving data)   Daily values of: – –Precipitation (P) – –Evaporation (E) – –Runoff (R) – –Observed discharge data (GRDC)   Area of interest: – –Danube: length river 2850 Km, Area basin 807 000 km 2 – –Period of 30 years: 01.01.1961 – 31.12.1990 – –Calculation of integral values (over the area, using GIS tools) of: P, E, R, Precipitation – Evaporation (hydrological balance), (P - E) Mass conservation: Courtesy of CIA

4. 4 Regional CM (PRUDENCE 5 FP) CodeModelDriving dataInstituteCountryDatalat x lonVL CLM GKSS CLMHadAM3H A2 GKSS Research Centre GeesthachtGermanyDaily0.50° x 0.50°20 HIRHAM METNO HIRHAMHadAM3H A2 Norwegian Meteorological InstituteNorwayDaily0.46° x 0.46°19 CHRM ETH CHRMHadAM3H A2 ETH - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology SwitzerlandDaily0.50° x 0.50°20 PROMES UCM PROMESHadAM3H A2 UCM - Universidad Complutense de Madrid SpainDaily0.50° x 0.50°26 RACMO KNMI RACMOHadAM3H A2 KNMI - The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, University of Reading Netherlands, UK Daily0.44° x 0.44°31 REMO HadAM3H A2 MPI - Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology GermanyDaily0.50° x 0.50°19 SHMI25RCAO – high resolution HadAM3H A2 SMHI – Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute SwedenDaily0.22° x 0.22°59 SHMI50RCAOHadAM3H A2 SMHI – Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute SwedenDaily0.44° x 0.44°24 DMI12HIRHAM – extra high res. HadAM3H A2 DMI - Danish Meteorological InstituteDenmarkMonthly0.15° x 0.15°19 DMI25HIRHAM – high resolution HadAM3H A2 DMI - Danish Meteorological InstituteDenmarkDaily0.22° x 0.22°19 DMI50HIRHAMHadAM3H A2 DMI - Danish Meteorological InstituteDenmarkDaily0.44° x 0.44°19 ICTPICTP – RegCM HadAM3H A2 ICTP The Abdus Salam Intl. Centre for Theoretical Physics ItalyDaily0.44° x 0.44°23

5. 5 Other data (Verification) CodeDatasetInstituteCountryAvailable data lat x lonLevels ERA40ERA-40, T159 resolution – Reamalyses ECMWF –European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast UK4XDaily2.5° x 2.5°60 NCEP- NCAR NCEP-NCAR - Reanalyses National Center for Environmental Prediction – National Center for Atmospheric Research USA4XDaily1.905° x 1.875° 28 HadAM3HadAM3H model– A2 scenario (forced by observed SST and sea ice) Hadley Centre for Climate Change - Met OfficeUKDaily1.25ºx1.875º19 Obs. Disc. Danube discharge at Ceatal Izmail station Global Runoff Data CenterGermanyMonthly Est. Obser. Danube basin runoff reconstructed as in Hagemann et al. (2004) Global Runoff Data CenterGermanyMonthly

6. 6 Data Gridding Voronoi Polygon

7. 7 Statistics of the Yearly time series  Balance (Precipitation – Evaporation)  Precipitation  Evaporation  Runoff

8. 8 Mean vs. Variability ERA-40 NCEP High Med Low μ σ

9. 9 P vs. E μ(E) μ(P) ERA-40 NCEP Med Low High

10. 10 Correlation with Driving AGCM (1) Precip Evap MODELSC(P,P)C(E,E) CLM_GKSS_germany0,910,66 HIRHAM_METNO_norway0,900,53 CHRM_ETH_swiss0,870,70 PROMES_UCM_spain0,87-0,16 RACMO_KNMI_netherland0,930,71 REMO_germany0,880,72 SMHI_25_sweden0,840,75 SMHI_50_sweden0,890,79 DMI_12_denmark0,850,73 DMI_25_denmark0,870,76 DMI_50_denmark0,800,75 ICTP_italy0,840,66

11. 11 P-E Feedback P vs E DRIVING DATA 0,90 CLM_GKSS_germany0,81 HIRHAM_METNO_norway0,58 CHRM_ETH_swiss0,84 PROMES_UCM_spain0,04 RACMO_KNMI_netherland0,69 REMO_germany0,82 SMHI_25_sweden0,87 SMHI_50_sweden0,89 DMI_12_denmark0,91 DMI_25_denmark0,90 DMI_50_denmark0,92 ICTP_italy0,80 NCEP/NCAR0.72 ERA40-0.41

12. 12 Correlation with Driving AGCM (2) P-E=B MODELSC(B,B) CLM_GKSS_germany0.92 HIRHAM_METNO_norway0.92 CHRM_ETH_swiss0.89 PROMES_UCM_spain0.90 RACMO_KNMI_netherland0.93 REMO_germany0.86 SMHI_25_sweden0.85 SMHI_50_sweden0.89 DMI_12_denmark0.86 DMI_25_denmark0.85 DMI_50_denmark0.78 ICTP_italy0.85

13. 13 Runoff vs Balance ERA-40 NCEP High Med Low μ(R) μ(B) Not good!

14. 14 Seasonal Cycle  Balance (Precipitation – Evaporation)  Precipitation  Evaporation  Runoff

15. 15 Seasonal cycle Precipitation – equivalent runoff (m 3 s -1 ) Max Min 100%

16. 16 PRECIPITATION Max Min 100%

17. 17 EVAPORATION Max Min 100% Min Negative balance

18. 18 BALANCE Min 100% Max Negative balance

19. 19 RUNOFF Min Max Amplitude Phase

20. Athens, January 2007 HYDROCARE Hydrological cycle of the CADSES region Action 5.1: Publicity and Outreach Valerio Lucarini, Veronica Benedettelli, Donato di Camillo, Carmelo Grasso

21. 21 Public Events  February 2006: Press Conference in Potsdam (DE)  April 2006: Workshop in Argostoli (GR)  June 2006: Public Event in Bratislava (SK)  October 2006: Workshop in Štrba (SK)  January 2007: Press Conference in Athens (GR)

22. 22 Project Website http://www.hydrocare-cadses.net  The website is regularly updated and contains all the basic information about the project events and activities.  In 2006 we have had 2500 visits with a total of 10.000 pages visited (2GB downloaded)

23. 23 Hydrocare @..  European Geosciences Union Assembly (April 2006)  European Meteorological Society Meeting (September 2006)  Leipzig CADSES Conference (October 2006)  CADSEALAND final Conference (November 2006)  Many presentations and seminars (year round)

24. 24 Press:  HYDROCARE activities are present in institutional, scientific, technical, political, NGO Websites.  HYDROCARE events are mirrored in many Press Websites  In Evidence:  Radio Lotte (CD and Online) HYDROCARE Radio Magazine (December 2006)  Ideambiente Issue 25 (July 2006), pages 26-27  Parliament Magazine - EU Issue 217 (6 February 2006), page 31

25. 25 Radio Magazine Radio Lotte HYDROCARE Radio Magazine (December 2006)

26. 26 APAT Magazine Ideambiente Issue 25 (July 2006) pages 26-27

27. 27 Future  Fairs (ECOMONDO, Rimini, Italy)?  EOS? - AGU  The EGGS? - EGU  ….  Proposals?

28. 28 Bratislava, June 27, 2006 Thanks for your attention!