1. 1/10 The 51th Annual Hubbard Brook Cooperators' Meeting July 9-10, 2014 The teleconnection of Merrimack hydrology to AMO and NAO oceanic indices Rouzbeh Berton (rberton@syr.edu) Charles T. Driscoll (ctdrisco@syr.edu) Stephen B. Shaw (sbshaw@esf.edu) David G. Chandler (dgchandl@syr.edu) Civil &Environmental Engineering Dept., Syracuse University

2. 2/10 Introduction  Water cycle  Runoff Precipitation Evaporation  Water temperature/air pressure control evaporation  Sea surface temperature (SST): Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO)  Sea level pressure (SLP): North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)  Teleconnection of AMO and NAO with precipitation governs streamflow variations IntroductionStudy siteResearch objectivesMethodologyResultsConclusionOngoing works

3. 3/10 Study site  Merrimack Watershed (NH-MA)  Area: 13,000 km 2  Ave. annual precip.: 1200 mm  Elevation: 0-914 m ASL  Ave. annual temp.: -3 & 17 °C  Ave. annual runoff: 700 mm  Land cover: 67% forested IntroductionStudy siteResearch objectivesMethodologyResultsConclusionOngoing works

4. 4/10 Research objectives  Study the correlation of annual flow, air temperature, and precipitation with AMO and NAO: At reference (undisturbed) and developed (land use/cover change, impoundment, urbanization) sites With respect to drainage area, elevation, and % of forested With 1-2 years lag time of AMO and NAO IntroductionStudy siteResearch objectivesMethodologyResultsConclusionOngoing works

5. 5/10 Methodology  Correlation Analysis: Pearson, Spearman, Kendall Tau  Regression Analysis: OLS, Ridge, PCR  Multivariate Analysis: PCA, FA IntroductionStudy siteResearch objectivesMethodologyResultsConclusionOngoing works

6. 6/10 Results I- Drainage IntroductionStudy siteResearch objectivesMethodologyResultsConclusionOngoing works

7. 7/10 Results II- Elevation IntroductionStudy siteResearch objectivesMethodologyResultsConclusionOngoing works

8. 8/10 Results III- Regression & Multivariate IntroductionStudy siteResearch objectivesMethodologyResultsConclusionOngoing works  Reference sites: AMO: greater influence on lowest, largest, and least forested watersheds NAO: greater influence on highest, smallest, and most forested watersheds  Developed sites: No consistent pattern

9. 9/10 Conclusion IntroductionStudy siteResearch objectivesMethodologyResultsConclusionOngoing works  Merrimack 1-2 years memory  Predictability of flow with respect to AMO and NAO variations 1-2 years ahead  Difference in teleconnection patterns with respect to drainage area, elevation, and % of forested  Development (land use/cover change, impoundment, urbanization) confuse the teleconnection patterns

10. 10/10 Ongoing works IntroductionStudy siteResearch objectivesMethodologyResultsConclusionOngoing works  Study the correlation of monthly and seasonal flow, air temperature, and precipitation with AMO and NAO  Study the impacts of precipitation, air temperature, AMO, and NAO on flow individually and collectively Questions? This project is supported by NSF through the LTER program and the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering of Syracuse University.