1. Affording Mars II: 14-16 October, 2014 Turning Vision into Reality Humans to Mars Summit 2016 17-19 May, 2016 George Washington University Washington, D.C. Bret G. Drake Humans to Mars Summit 2016 – Vision to Reality The opinions and recommendations provided in this presentation are my own and do not represent an official position of my employer 1

2. Affording Mars II: 14-16 October, 2014 A trail of Blue Ribbon Committees and studies … to Mars A Brief History of Human Exploration Beyond LEO 2 Ref: Drake, Bret G., “Footprints on Mars”, NASA, 2014 National Commission on Space America at the Threshold First Lunar Outpost DPT / NEXT Constellation Program 1980199020002010 Review of U.S. Human Spaceflight Plans Committee NRC Pathways to Exploration Journey to Mars Leadership and America’s Future in Space 90-Day Study Mars Design Reference Mission 1.0 Mars Design Reference Mission 3.0 Exploration Blueprint Mars Design Reference Architecture 5.0 Global Exploration Roadmap Exploration System Architecture Study Bush 41 Speech Bush 43 Speech Obama Speech Challenger Columbia

3. Affording Mars II: 14-16 October, 2014 Common Findings from Multiple Studies Mars by the Numbers 500 Days 1,000 Days Maximum surface stay for any given mission Total time crew is away from Earth Heavy-Lift Mass 130 t Highest Orion Earth entry speed 12 km/s Ability to land large payloads 20-30 t Multiple Launches per mission Total continuous transportation power 100-200+ kWe Oxygen produced for ascent to orbit 20 t Distance for long-range routine exploration 100 km Maximum two- 44 min way communication time delay Ref: Drake, Bret G., “Footprints on Mars”, NASA, 2014

4. Affording Mars II: 14-16 October, 2014 The capabilities are well known - The pace of advancement must be increased Maintain Focus on the Key Supporting Capabilities 3 Heavy Lift In-Space Propulsion Nuclear Surface Power Advanced EVA Cryogenic Fluid Transfer and Storage Automated Rendezvous and Docking Zero-gravity Countermeasures Radiation Effects and Shielding Telerobotics Closed-Loop Life Support Human Factors for Long Duration Lightweight Structures Follow-on Propulsion In-Situ Resource Utilization 1990’s “America at the Threshold” (Page 6) 130 t Solar Electric Solar Electric 150 t Nuclear Electric Nuclear Electric Today’s Evolvable Mars Campaign

5. Affording Mars II: 14-16 October, 2014 Pioneering Space Disruptive Approaches & Advanced Technology  Countless revolutionary approaches considered  Few have shown promise for the near-term horizon (next 20 years)  The most promising —Highly reliable and maintainable life support —Advanced propulsion (SEP) —Human-scale EDL technologies —Living off the Land via In-Situ Resources —Nuclear surface power Images courtesy Pat Rawlings, © NASA 5 Space Elevators Advanced Launch Virtual Research Power Beaming Self Assembly Space Farming In-Situ Resources He3 Fusion Entry and Landing Nano-Structures Nuclear Power Life Support Advanced Transportation Advanced Information

6. Affording Mars II: 14-16 October, 2014 Mars – A complex problem Staging Point Location Transportation Analysis SEP ARM Extensibility Deep Space Surface Operations in micro-g SLS Exploration Upperstage and Co-Manifested Cargo Capability Development Analysis Human Class Mars Surface Lander Mars Campaign Habitation Mars and Mars Moons Surface Exploration Ref: J. Crusan, “Evolvable Mars Campaign Status Update to NASA Advisory Council HEO & Science Committees”, January 12, 2015

7. Affording Mars II: 14-16 October, 2014  The public is not risk averse. In fact, minimizing risk may mean minimizing public interest.  Acceptance of risk changes with time and culture.  We need to be an active voice in changing the culture to accept the risks of pushing the boundaries of human exploration. (e.g. MSL’s “7-minutes of terror”)  Not all risks are equal and resources should continually be focused on the risks that matter Risk and Exploration Space Shuttle (1981 - 2011) Flights135 Success133 Success rate98.5% Total Crew833 Fatalities14 Fatality rate1.68% Source: NASA Mt. Everest (1922 – 2006) Attempts11000 Success3000 Success rate27% Fatalities207 Fatality rate1.88% Source: Adventure Stats

8. Affording Mars II: 14-16 October, 2014 Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter Mars Odyssey Operational 2001 - 2014 MAVEN 2016 20182020 Curiosity – Mars Science Laboratory Science Rover 2022 Opportunity – Mars Exploration Rover Explore Habitability Courtesy NASA. Updated to reflect recent announced mission dates Current & Future Mars Missions Follow the Water EVOLVING MARS SCIENCE THEMES Seek Signs of Life Prepare for Future Human Explorers ESA ExoMars Rover (NASA: MOMA) ESA ExoMars Rover (NASA: MOMA) InSight ESA Trace Gas Orbiter (NASA: Electra) ESA Trace Gas Orbiter (NASA: Electra) ESA Mars Express (NASA: MARSIS) ESA Mars Express (NASA: MARSIS)

9. Affording Mars II: 14-16 October, 2014  National priorities - erosion of NASA’s budget share  Perspectives – spending $ in space  Human Mars mission cost – the myth  Progressive achievements & staggered developments  Long-lead items Affordability and Sustainability Headwinds Source: OMB Historical Budget Tables National Research Council, “Pathways to Exploration: Rationales and Approaches for a U.S. Program of Human Space Exploration”, The National Academies Press, 2014 Source: OMB Historic Budget Tables FY16 ~0.4%

10. Affording Mars II: 14-16 October, 2014 So what’s the plan? Courtesy NASA