1. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use1 The State of the Church in Connecticut 1990-2000 Dave Olson www.TheAmericanChurch.org

2. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use2 This is a Sample Presentation It’s purpose is to give you an idea of what is happening to the Christian church in Connecticut, and what the complete “State of the Church in Connecticut” Powerpoint looks like. The goal is to encourage pastors and church lay leaders to view and discuss together the missional challenges in Connecticut that the Church faces. The complete Powerpoint is $14.95 and is available for immediate download at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UCT20.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UCT20.htm

3. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use3 In 1996, polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group. For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought.

4. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use4 The Intent of this presentation is to answer and then expand on two key questions: “How Many People Really Attend Church in Connecticut Every Week?” “Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or Backwards in Influence in Connecticut?” As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Connecticut will begin to take shape.

5. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use5 This study uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Connecticut has an attendance percentage (17.2%) that is the same as the average for the nation (18.7%).

6. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use6

7. 7 The Next Map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Connecticut.

8. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use8 13.9% Tolland 14.4% Windham 14.6% New London 16.1% Litchfield 16.4% Middlesex 16.8% New Haven 18.3% Fairfield 18.6% Hartford 13.9% to 16.4% 16.4% to 19.6% Connecticut Counties 2000 Percentage of Population at Christian Churches

9. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use9 The Next 2 Maps show the population numbers for each county in Connecticut. The first map shows the population size of each county. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 1990 - 2000.

10. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use10 109,091 Windham 136,364 Tolland 155,071 Middlesex 182,193 Litchfield 259,088 New London 824,008 New Haven 857,183 Hartford 882,567 Fairfield 0 to 259,088 259,088 to 882,568 Connecticut Counties 2000 Population

11. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use11 Complete Presentation has Map of 2000 Population Growth for Each County

12. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use12 The Next Graph shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Connecticut in 1990 and 2000. Most noteworthy is the decline of Catholic churches. Unfortunately, as overall worship attendance has declined, the population has grown. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph.

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14. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use14 Complete Presentation has Graph of 1990 & 2000 Worship Percentage by Category

15. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use15 The Next Graph is a Pie graph visualizing the percentage of the population at churches in each category in 2000. The “Absent” category indicates the percentage of the population that is not worshipping at a Christian church on any given weekend. The second graph shows the percentage gain or decline for each category in Connecticut in 1990 and 2000.

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18. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use18 The 3 Next Charts show the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in Connecticut. The Pie Chart shows how much Catholics predominate in Connecticut. The second and third charts show that all groups have declined with the exception of Reformed and Pentecostals churches.

19. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use19 Complete Presentation has Pie Chart of 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families

20. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use20 Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Attendance by Denominational Families

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22. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use22 The Next Chart shows the 1990 & 2000 average church attendance by group for both this state and the nation. The second chart shows the 1990 & 2000 population per church for this state and the nation. Among states in 2000, Arkansas has the lowest population per church with 411 people per church, Utah is the highest at 4,586 people per church.

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24. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use24 Complete Presentation has Bar Graph of 1990 & 2000 Population per Church for State and Nation

25. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use25 The Next 3 Maps show the attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Connecticut in 2000.

26. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use26 Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage for each County

27. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use27 Complete Presentation has State Map of 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage for each County

28. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use28 8.2% New London 8.7% Tolland 9.6% Litchfield 10.0% Windham 10.1% Middlesex 10.6% Hartford 10.7% New Haven 10.9% Fairfield 8.2% to 10.1% 10.1% to 12.1% Connecticut Counties 2000 Percentage of Population at Catholic Churches

29. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use29 The Next Map shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for each county. One county grew in attendance percentage, while seven counties declined.

30. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use30 Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Christian Church Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County

31. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use31 The Next 3 Maps show the growth or decline of attendance percentages for the Evangelical, Catholic and Mainline churches in each county in Connecticut between 1990 and 2000. For evangelicals, 6 counties grew in attendance percentage, while 2 counties declined. For mainline churches, all 8 counties declined. For Catholics, one counties grew in attendance percentage, while 7 counties declined.

32. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use32 Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Evangelical Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County

33. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use33 Complete Presentation has State Map of 1990 - 2000 Mainline Attendance Percentage Increase or Decline for each County

34. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use34 -36.0% Windham -24.5% New Haven -23.8% Hartford -19.1% Fairfield -16.4% New London -16.0% Litchfield -11.7% Middlesex 17.9% Tolland -100.0% to 0.0% 0.0% to 100.0% Connecticut Counties Growth or Decline in Percentage of Population at Catholic churches from 1990 - 2000

35. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use35 The Final Chart shows the net gain in the number of churches in Connecticut in the past decade. There was a net gain of 5 churches. However, 78 churches were needed to keep up with population growth from 1990 - 2000.

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37. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use37 The State of the Church in Connecticut... Western Connecticut has a higher church attendance than eastern Connecticut. While church attendance has essentially stayed the same for Evangelical and Mainline churches, the Catholic church has declined considerably. The percentage of the population attending church has been declining for all three groups. This resulted in a 16% loss in the state-wide percentage of the population that attended church between 1990 and 2000. A major factor in the overall decline among Protestants is the insufficient net gain in the number of churches in Connecticut. Seventy-three additional churches needed to have been started in the previous decade to compensate for the decline in percentage attendance.

38. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use38 For More Information... Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional information on the American Church.www.theamericanchurch.org 12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm. htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/ 12supm. htm The complete Connecticut Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UCT20.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UCT20.htm The Complete Hartford Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Hartford.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/Hartford.htm A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Connecticut and Hartford Powerpoints) is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/CT0.htm http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/CT0.htm

39. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use39 Information on the Information The spiritual health of churches is multifaceted, and is obviously much more complex than an attendance trend can portray. However, following the example of St. Luke in the Book of Acts, who used the number of people who showed up at various events as a sign documenting the health and growth of the early church, I would suggest that attendance is the single most helpful indicator of health, growth and decline. Information has been compiled only for orthodox Christian groups – Protestant, Catholic and Orthodox. The Mormons, Jehovah Witnesses, Unitarian-Universalists and the International Churches of Christ have not been included. In addition, information about non-Christian groups has not been compiled. African American denominations publish very little that is statistical – often not even a list of current churches. This study used data from the 1990 Glenmary study on Black Baptist estimates and AME Zion churches, the average African American worship attendance (from the Barna Research Group), and a statistical model based on the population of African Americans in each county in 1990 and 2000. These were combined to come up with as accurate an estimate as possible. Independent church data is almost impossible to obtain. (There are actually many fewer totally independent churches than is assumed. Most are part of some voluntary association, which typically keeps some records.) Data from the 1990 & 2000 Glenmary study on larger Independent churches (limited to over 300 in attendance) was used along with a statistical model to estimate the attendance at smaller independent churches. In Catholic churches, the definition of what constitutes membership varies with diocese and church, making numbers sometimes inconsistent from state to state and county to county. In addition to actual mass counts from 1/3 rd of Catholic parishes, membership information has been merged with attendance patterns from similar dioceses based on the size of the diocese and the region in which it is located. Orthodox Churches are included in Totals, but not included as a separate group because of smallness of size nationwide. Division into Evangelical and Mainline categories is based on the division by the Glenmary Study. This study only looks at how many people attend a Christian church on any given Sunday. The term ‘regular attender’ can be designated to mean someone who attends a Christian church on a consistent basis. Using a simple definition for ‘regular attender’ (attends at least 3 out of every 8 Sundays), between 25% and 27% of Americans would fit this category. Adding ‘regular attenders’ of non-orthodox christian churches and other religions to the totals would increase the percentage to 28% – 30%.

40. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use40 This Presentation is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 170,000 individual churches. It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for all 300,000 orthodox Christian churches. 1 1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.

41. © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use41 For More Information... Presentations such as this are available for the largest 100 metropolitan areas, for each state and for the nation as a whole, as well as other presentations to show what is happening in the American church. Presentations are available either by direct download, CD or print. Please go to www.The AmericanChurch.org for ordering information. To Contact Dave Olson, please email him at DaveTOlson@aol.com.