1. The Unintended Consequences of TTIP European Alcohol Policy Conference November 27th 2014 Usman Khan

2. Background EPHA Rapid Evidence Assessment Rigor and Independence

3. Overview GDP growth and health FTA are not public health orientated Does TTIP present a present and substantive risk to public health?

4. TTIP in Context Tariff reduction to regulatory reform BITS to WTO and back again TPP, TTIP and the challenge of BRIC

5. TTIP and trade 80/20 non-tariff to tariff Existing tariff levels low Other barriers still in place Growth ambition significant Projections subject challenge

6. Regulatory Challenge Regulatory Chill Regulatory Snare Manifest Impact? Current Trajectory?

7. Impact on Alcohol Control Availability Advertising Pricing Tax

8. Key Chapters of TTIP Technical Barriers to Trade Investor Protection Intellectual Property Regulatory Cooperation Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) provisions Cross Border Trade

9. Technical Barriers to Trade Where is the upside? Another feather or a whole new weapons system? TTIP presents a regulatory risk for issues such as alcohol labeling and advertising

10. Intellectual Property Could there be an upside to IP provisions in TTIP? IP chapter likely to be limited as a result of the failure of Anti- Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA) Could impact on labeling

11. Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) Damages based Expropriation Based upon equal treatment Examples of high profile public health impact Examples of regulatory chill Not quite an open and shut case Absence likely to impact on investment Growing Opposition Potential ISDS Lite

12. Regulatory Cooperation Is a race to the bottom inevitable? Evidence of a ‘win win’? TTIP is a ‘living agreement’ It is the approach not the concept that is a potential risk to public health

13. Sector Exclusions French film industry Canadian Health Services Soft and Hard Exclusions How much can be excluded?

14. Response Focus on TBT and IP chapters Develop and road test scenarios Establish economic impact Assess the impact on treaty shopping

15. Conclusions Not a game changer A feather not a gun Entrapment risk remains ISDS is likely to fall or be amended further Remember it is a ‘living agreement’ Running on different tracks Engagement is essential

16. Thank You Email: Usman.Khan@ModusEurope.com Twitter @moduseu