1. Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2014 March 25, 2014

2. Class News Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W14AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W14 Something I am playing with –http://openclimate.tumblr.com/http://openclimate.tumblr.com/ Assignment: Thursday 3/27/14 update on projects … Class time for projects … Each group explain where they are … What do you think you are going to report on April 22? –Discussion or presentation Politics of Dismissal Entry Model Uncertainty Description

3. The Current Climate (Released Monthly) Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center.Climate MonitoringNational Climatic Data Center –http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.htmlhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html State of the Climate: Global

4. Readings on Local Servers Reading to understand relation of science to policy –Jasanoff: The Fifth Branch (Chapter 1)Jasanoff: The Fifth Branch (Chapter 1) Foundational References –UNFCCC: Text of ConventionUNFCCC: Text of Convention –Kyoto Protocol: TextKyoto Protocol: Text –Kyoto Protocol: Introduction and SummaryKyoto Protocol: Introduction and Summary –Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Web PortalMillennium Ecosystem Assessment

5. Reading Response: Due March 24, 2014 Socolow and Pacala, “Stabilization Wedges,” Scientific American, 2006 (link)link Other versions, additional reading –Pacala and Socolow, “Stabilization Wedges,” Science, 2004 (link)link –Socolow, “Wedges Reaffirmed,” Climate Central, 2011 (link)link –Blog at climateprogress (link)link

6. Wedges on the Web Carbon Mitigation Initiative @ Princeton UniversityCarbon Mitigation Initiative

7. Today Policy Interface (Redux): Global Mitigation –Global Mitigation Stabilization Wedges Interface of Climate and Problem Solving

8. Policy A natural reaction to greenhouse gas emissions is to look to government, to the development of policy to address the problems that we are faced with.

9. The Official Policy is: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change –Framework Convention on Climate ChangeFramework Convention on Climate Change

10. What is COP? COP is the Conference of Parties –Parties are those countries who have signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. There are 192 signatories.Framework Convention on Climate Change Essential Background UNFCCC

11. 1992 Convention Commitments All Parties agree to: 4.1.b. Mitigate emissions and enhance sinks 4.1.c. Promote technology development and transfer 4.1.e. Cooperate on research and observation Developed Countries’ aim to return emissions to 1990 levels by the end of the century

12. Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Data and more information “ This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through … a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels. ” --Lyndon Johnson Special Message to Congress, 1965

13. Kyoto Protocol Kyoto Protocol (December, 1997, binding limits on or reduction of emissions) –Must be signed (155 signers (?186)) and ratified At least 55 countries That represent 55 % or more of emissions –Open for signatures on March 16, 1998 –Went into effect on February 16, 2005 After Russia signed and ratified

14. Kyoto Protocol followed 1995 assessments Is the Kyoto Protocol still relevant? –It has officially expired –It frames much of the language we use –It sets a foundation for market-based approaches to climate change –Some countries strive to adhere to the protocol

15. Constituencies in the community OECD: Organization for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentOrganization for Economic Co-operation and Development Annex 1: Developed Countries and Economies in Transition –List of Annex 1 countriesList of Annex 1 countries Annex 2: The OECD Countries –Provide financial and technical support to Economies in Transition Annex B: Annex 1 parties with emission targets Least Developed Countries

16. Constituencies in the community “G-77” and China: ~130 developing countries, work by consensus (generally represent The Africa Group) –Economic development and emission limits –Sell their potential carbon credits for profit The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) –Tightest control on global emissions Organization of Petroleum Export Countries (OPEC) –Protection of their economic well being

17. Constituencies in the community European Union (EU) –Coordinated position as environmental leader with very ambitious emission reduction goals Japan, U.S., Switzerland, Canada, Australia, Norway, New Zealand (JUSSCANNZ) –Non-EU developed countries –Cost of tackling the climate problem U.S., Canada, Australia: Low-efficiency energy use Japan, Switzerland, Norway, New Zealand: High-efficiency energy use

18. Kyoto Protocol Requirements Developed nations reduce their emissions 5.2% below 1990 emissions –Reduction (increases) vary across countries –Relaxed a little over the years to attract signers –(Treaty: U.S. 7% reduction: Actual: 12% higher in 2004, 30% by 2012) Addresses “six” greenhouse gases (CO 2, Methane CH 4, Nitrous Oxide N 2 O, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulphur hexafluoride) Commitment period 2008-2012 Set of other activities –Improve “local emission factors” –Inventories of emissions and sinks –Mitigation and adaptation plans –Environmentally sound technology diffusion to developing nations

19. Kyoto Protocol Issues Amount and distribution for limits and reductions What greenhouse gases to include Developing countries in or out of emission requirements Trading, market-based mechanisms Role of removing greenhouse gases

20. Kyoto Protocol: Important Add ons Market-based mechanisms –Emissions trading –Joint implementation –Clean development mechanisms

21. Flexibility in Achieving Targets “What” flexibility –Targets apply to CO 2 -equivalent emissions of basket of six GHGs –Can use carbon sinks (e.g. forests) as offsets “When” flexibility –Five-year commitment period –Banking “Where” flexibility –Market mechanisms: ET, JI, CDM

22. “Flaws” in Kyoto Protocol Participation of Developing Countries –Large populations, large projected growth Participation of the United States –Large portion of greenhouse gas emissions Other “flaws” –Does not go far enough: Emission goals don’t adequately mitigate dangerous climate change –2008-2012 commitment period – then what?

23. Climate Assessment Perhaps the most present accomplishment of international climate change policy is assessment –Regular ~ 5 years assessment of the state of the knowledge –Provides translation of the scientific literature for policy makers

24. Today Policy Interface (Redux): Global Mitigation –Global Mitigation Stabilization Wedges Interface of Climate and Problem Solving

25. A global perspective on energy and climate To achieve stabilization at a 2°C warming, we would need to install ~900 ± 500 MW [mega-watts] of carbon emissions-free power generating capacity each day over the next 50 years. This is roughly the equivalent of a large carbon emissions-free power plant becoming functional somewhere in the world every day. In many scenarios, this pace accelerates after mid-century... even stabilization at a 4°C warming would require installation of 410 MW of carbon emissions-free energy capacity each day. Caldeira et al. 2003

26. “Practical” Response Space

27. A trillion tons of carbon We get to emit a trillion tons of carbon to avoid “dangerous” climate change

28. Trillion Tons: Carbon VisualsCarbon Visuals

29. Past Emissions Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

30. The Stabilization Triangle Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

31. The Wedge Concept Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

33. Stabilization (2006) Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

34. CO 2 stabilization trajectory (2006) Stabilize at < 550 ppm. Pre-industrial: 275 ppm, current: ~400 ppm. Need 7 ‘wedges’ of prevented CO 2 emissions.

35. Princeton Carbon Mitigation Initiative

36. McKinsey 2007

37. “Practical” Response Space What keeps this from happening?

38. Today Policy Interface (Redux): Global Mitigation –Global Mitigation Stabilization Wedges Interface of Climate and Problem Solving

39. Climate Assessment Perhaps the most present accomplishment of international climate change policy is assessment –Regular ~ 5 years assessment of the state of the knowledge –Provides translation of the scientific literature for policy makers

40. Where do assessments sit in problem solving?

41. Outline Climate Problem Solving Interface –Salience Challenge Translational Information –Description Synthesis –Structured approach to science – policy interface – interface with user and educational communication Chapter 12: Advancing Climate ModelingChapter 12: Advancing Climate Modeling

42. Knowledge System Need to bring together disparate information and different points of view to develop strategies for applied problem solving Key to development of successful strategies: iterative process or co- development with information providers and information users Cash et al: 2002 Lemos & Morehouse, 2005 Dilling & Lemos, 2011

43. Knowledge System, Science Focused Two Points –This figure overstates the role of “science” in the knowledge systems –I choose not to draw a line between the two bubbles, as the relation between “science” and the application is not direct. Science & Research Applications

44. Heuristic Knowledge System Science & Research Applications Disciplinary Knowledge Disciplinary Knowledge Political Local Reality Budget Etc. These elements sit in a complex and changing relationship within any specific application, as well as across multiple applications.

45. Knowledge System, Science Focused Dilling & Lemos, 2011 Information brokers Collaborative group processes Embedded capacity Boundary Organizations Knowledge Networks Science & Research Applications Cash et al: 2002 Boundary Management Dual Accountability Boundary Objects

46. Knowledge System, Science Focused Dilling & Lemos, 2011 Information brokers Collaborative group processes Embedded capacity Boundary Organizations Knowledge Networks Science & Research Applications Cash et al: 2002 Boundary Management Dual Accountability Boundary Objects Cash et al: 2002 Legitimacy Credibility Salience

47. Credibility, Legitimacy, Salience Credibility is an attribute of scientific adequacy. Legitimacy is an attribute of objectivity, fairness, and a lack of political bias. Salience requires that information be relevant to the problem to be addressed.

48. Science-Policy Interface II: Salience Challenge Usable Science? Tang and Dessai (2012) –U.K. Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) –Bayesian probabilistic projections – highly quantitative uncertainty descriptions –Increases credibility and legitimacy –Reduces salience and usability Understanding and Interpretation Information required –Strategy to increase salience Tailoring to adaptation context or problem

49. To Support Iterative Co-development “Translation” Tag information (range of descriptors) Translate information across disciplinary boundaries Tailor information to be relevant to specific application Describe uncertainty Provide judgment on usability of information  Knowledge applied to real problems

50. Types of Translational InformationTranslational Information Model Output Digital Information Indices Downscaled GIS Formats Seasonality Fact Sheets Summaries Narratives What has happened? What will happen? What are the impacts? Guidance Judgment Assessments IPCC NCA Local Basic Data Applications Global Regional Local Observations Quality Assessment Homogeneity Images Figures Uncertainty Descriptions Risk Assessments

51. Challenges: Translational InformationTranslational Information What do we mean by the term? How do we generate? At scale? How do we manage? –Link to primary data and knowledge sources How do we re-use? How do we accelerate the use of climate knowledge in policy and planning?

52. Synthesis Structured approach based on model of knowledge system –Integrated, End-to-end system –Interfaces between different parts of system –Iterative process –Translational information to improve salience –  Scale up by developing translators and boundary organizations –Chapter 12: Advancing Climate ModelingChapter 12: Advancing Climate Modeling

53. Iconic and Fundamental Figures

54. Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate SUN: ENERGY, HEATEARTH: ABSORBS ENERGY EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE

55. Sun-Earth System in Balance The addition to the blanket is CO 2 SUNEARTH EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE PLACE AN INSULATING BLANKET AROUND EARTH FOCUS ON WHAT IS HAPPENING AT THE SURFACE

56. Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Data and more information Primary increase comes from burning fossil fuels – coal, oil, natural gas

57. Temperature and CO 2 : The last 1000 years Surface temperature and CO 2 data from the past 1000 years. Temperature is a northern hemisphere average. Temperature from several types of measurements are consistent in temporal behavior.  Medieval warm period  “Little ice age”  Temperature starts to follow CO 2 as CO 2 increases beyond approximately 300 ppm, the value seen in the previous graph as the upper range of variability in the past 350,000 years.

58. CLOUD-WORLD The Earth System ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN ICE (cryosphere) SUN

59. Radiation Balance Figure

60. Radiative Balance (Trenberth et al. 2009)Trenberth et al. 2009

61. Hansen et al: (1998) & (2001) (-2.7, -0.6) (-3.7, 0.0) 1998 2001 Climate Forcing