1. « F-GasII » Regulation and Refrigerant Emission Forecasts in France Stéphanie Barrault, Maroun Nemer Center for Energy efficiency of Systems (CES ) MINES-ParisTech, PSL Research University 24 th International Congress of Refrigeration

2. Yokohama JAPAN 2015 Outline Climate change and refrigerant European regulations RIEP software: a tool for refrigerant inventories and forecasts Impact of F-GasII regulation on the scenario assumptions A Likely Forecast Scenario in France: evolution of HFC emissions until 2035 Conclusions 2 Stéphanie Barrault - CES

3. 24th International Congress of Refrigeration Yokohama JAPAN 2015 Refrigerant European regulations 3 Stéphanie Barrault - CES CLIMATE CHANGE Kyoto Protocol « F-Gas » Regulation EU 842/2006 « F-GasII » Regulation EU 517/2014 MAC Directive 2006/40/CE Ban of refrigerants with GWP > 150 gradually from 2011 to 2017 in mobile air conditionning systems Ban of refrigerants with GWP > 150 gradually from 2011 to 2017 in mobile air conditionning systems Containment Certification Training Leakage Controls Reporting Containment Certification Training Leakage Controls Reporting Refrigerant bans for new equipment Restriction for servicing Phasedown Refrigerant bans for new equipment Restriction for servicing Phasedown +

4. 24th International Congress of Refrigeration Yokohama JAPAN 2015 Refrigerant European regulation n ° 517/2014: F-GasII HFC emissions Target  In 2030 CO 2 eq emissions of HFCs must be reduced of 60% compared to 2005 level Main new measures 1.Phasedown Gradual reduction of the HFC quantities placed on the European market 4 Stéphanie Barrault - CES -60% 2005 2030 CO2 eq HFC emissions Reference average 2009-2012 21%

5. 24th International Congress of Refrigeration Yokohama JAPAN 2015 Refrigerant European regulation n °517/2014: F-GasII 2. Bans 3. Use ban for Servicing  From 2020  Refrigeration equipment 5 Stéphanie Barrault - CES New HFC GWP ≥2 500

6. 24th International Congress of Refrigeration Yokohama JAPAN 2015 RIEP: a tool for inventory and forecasts RIEP : Refrigerant Inventories and Emission Previsions 6 Stéphanie Barrault - CES -> Calculates direct refrigerant emissions coming from all the RAC applications 8 domains 43 Subapplications MAC systems Refrigerated transport Domestic refrigeration Commercial refrigeration SAC Chillers Heat Pumps Industries

7. 24th International Congress of Refrigeration Yokohama JAPAN 2015 RIEP Calculation method 7 MAC Model Stéphanie Barrault - CES Data needed to build forecast scenarios

8. 24th International Congress of Refrigeration Yokohama JAPAN 2015 Need to define the evolution of data and parameters until the year of prevision –Equipment market and production by sector –Emission factors by sector –Evolution of refrigerant used in the new equipment –Retrofit plannings Forecast scenarios are based on inventory studies  2013 French Inventory of refrigerants => Evolution curves  Forecast emission scenarios until 2035 built for French government in 2014 8 Stéphanie Barrault - CES How to build a forecast scenario?

9. 24th International Congress of Refrigeration Yokohama JAPAN 2015 Impact of F-GasII regulation on emission factors 9 Stéphanie Barrault - CES Forecast scenario with F-GasII impact

10. 24th International Congress of Refrigeration Yokohama JAPAN 2015 Forecast scenario with F-GasII impact Refrigerant evolutions by sector and retrofit plannings are proposed based on:  Bans by sector imposed by regulation  Existing alternatives by sector Refrigerant Technologies  In development alternatives Blends for new equipment or retrofits Reference: Alternatives to high GWP in refrigeration and air-conditioning applications (Study EReIE, ARMINES, Cemafroid, 2014) 10 Stéphanie Barrault - CES

11. 24th International Congress of Refrigeration Yokohama JAPAN 2015 Impact of F-GasII regulation – Refrigerant evolution scenario Main available alternatives to high GWP HFCs –R-600a in domestic refrigeration –HFC-134a/CO2 cascade systems in centralized installation for commercial and industrial refrigeration –R-717 in food industry –R-32 in split systems –HC-290 in little commercial refrigeration and moveable air conditionning –Refrigerant with GWP < 2500 for R-404A retrofit Refrigerant trends 11 Stéphanie Barrault - CES R-410A R-407C R-134a R-404A R-32, Blend 700 Blend 500 Blend 150, R-1234yf, ze Blend 300

12. 24th International Congress of Refrigeration Yokohama JAPAN 2015 Impact of F-GasII regulation – Refrigerant evolution scenario Refrigerant assumptions: in new equipments 12 Stéphanie Barrault - CES

13. 24th International Congress of Refrigeration Yokohama JAPAN 2015 F-GasII scenario: CO2 emission results  -63% from 2010 to 2035 13 Stéphanie Barrault - CES  -60% from 2005 to 2033

14. 24th International Congress of Refrigeration Yokohama JAPAN 2015 F-GasII scenario: comparison with F-Gas scenario 14 Stéphanie Barrault - CES Gap>10% from 2022 Gap>50% from 2033

15. 24th International Congress of Refrigeration Yokohama JAPAN 2015 F-GasII scenario: comparison of derived demand and phasedown 2018 - 2030: Derived demand is inferior to « french equivalent phasedown »  Need of recovered refrigerant  Increase the number of retrofits before end of life of equipment 15 Stéphanie Barrault - CES

16. 24th International Congress of Refrigeration Yokohama JAPAN 2015 Conclusions The EU2030 target for HFC emissions is achievable for France  2005 and 2030: -60% CO 2 eq. Emissions of HFCs CO 2 eq. Emissions of HFCs savings:  Cumulative on 2014-2035: 56 million t CO 2  2035 level: -50% compared to F-Gas scenario Phasedown could be more difficult to respect –Conversions of installations –Need of recovered HFC quantities 16 Stéphanie Barrault - CES

17. 24th International Congress of Refrigeration Yokohama JAPAN 2015 Thank you for your attention www.ces.mines- paristech.fr stephanie.barrault@mines-paristech.fr maroun.nemer@mines-paristech.fr 17 Stéphanie Barrault - CES