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Published byMervyn Freeman Modified over 8 years ago
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CHRIS ORNDORFF BRANDON PANFIL Celgene (CELG)
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Price Performance 5-YR: 296.38%1-YR: 38.96% 2-YR: 186.72%YTD: 24.45%
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Security Statistics Share Price: $105.14 Market Cap:$84.06 Billion P/E Trailing: 55.1 Forward: 21.5 EPS: $1.91 PEG: 1.09 Beta:1.5 Last EPS Date10/23/14
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Growth in Revenue
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Revenue Growth
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89% correlation between revenue and market cap
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Cash Flow Growth
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Benjamin Graham Valuation P/E = 8.5 + 2G, where G = Growth Acceptable P/E = 8.5 + 2(28%) = 64.5 64.5 * $1.91 = $123.20 At current prices, the Benjamin Graham model implies a 17.3% upside.
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Forward Price Projections Year20152017 Mgmt EPS Targets$4.50$7.00 PE: 20X$90$140 PE: 25X$112.5$175 PE: 30X$135$210
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Price Projections (cont’d)
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Catalysts Increasing demand for Celgene’s products Revlimid, Vidaza, and Abraxane are all showing strong growth High expectations for Otezla (for Psoriasis) Celgene’s Management has hinted at the possibility of it becoming another billion-dollar drug Celgene is likely to receive approval for Revlimid (a fairly old drug) to be used to treat NDMM in EU and US Revlimid also showing encouraging signs in the treatment of lymphoma and MDS Very solid pipeline in general – CELG has been great at repurposing its existing drugs for new uses
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Share Repurchase Program Management is committed to strong share buyback program Repurchased $2.388 billion worth of shares (30.6 M shares) with an additional $3.7 billion left in the program
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