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CHRIS ORNDORFF BRANDON PANFIL Celgene (CELG). Price Performance 5-YR: 296.38%1-YR: 38.96% 2-YR: 186.72%YTD: 24.45%

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Presentation on theme: "CHRIS ORNDORFF BRANDON PANFIL Celgene (CELG). Price Performance 5-YR: 296.38%1-YR: 38.96% 2-YR: 186.72%YTD: 24.45%"— Presentation transcript:

1 CHRIS ORNDORFF BRANDON PANFIL Celgene (CELG)

2 Price Performance 5-YR: 296.38%1-YR: 38.96% 2-YR: 186.72%YTD: 24.45%

3 Security Statistics Share Price: $105.14 Market Cap:$84.06 Billion P/E  Trailing: 55.1  Forward: 21.5 EPS: $1.91 PEG: 1.09 Beta:1.5 Last EPS Date10/23/14

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6 Growth in Revenue

7 Revenue Growth

8 89% correlation between revenue and market cap

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11 Cash Flow Growth

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13 Benjamin Graham Valuation P/E = 8.5 + 2G, where G = Growth Acceptable P/E = 8.5 + 2(28%) = 64.5 64.5 * $1.91 = $123.20 At current prices, the Benjamin Graham model implies a 17.3% upside.

14 Forward Price Projections Year20152017 Mgmt EPS Targets$4.50$7.00 PE: 20X$90$140 PE: 25X$112.5$175 PE: 30X$135$210

15 Price Projections (cont’d)

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17 Catalysts Increasing demand for Celgene’s products  Revlimid, Vidaza, and Abraxane are all showing strong growth High expectations for Otezla (for Psoriasis)  Celgene’s Management has hinted at the possibility of it becoming another billion-dollar drug Celgene is likely to receive approval for Revlimid (a fairly old drug) to be used to treat NDMM in EU and US  Revlimid also showing encouraging signs in the treatment of lymphoma and MDS Very solid pipeline in general – CELG has been great at repurposing its existing drugs for new uses

18 Share Repurchase Program Management is committed to strong share buyback program  Repurchased $2.388 billion worth of shares (30.6 M shares) with an additional $3.7 billion left in the program

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