1. What am I thinking???

2. What factors affect population change?

3. The Input-Output Model of Population Change Births Immigration Deaths Emigration Inputs Outputs Natural Change Net Migration

4. The factors affecting population change can be grouped into FOUR categories. The importance of each category will vary over time and from place to place.  DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS  SOCIAL/CULTURAL FACTORS  ECONOMIC FACTORS  POLITICAL FACTORS

5. Infant Mortality Rates

6. Demographic Factors Infant mortality rates play an important part in influencing fertility rates. For example, if a country has an IMR of 100 per 1000, a woman has to have ten children to be 95% sure that one baby will live to adulthood, this is the case in sub-Saharan Africa. TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR) – the average number of children that would be born alive to a woman during her lifetime.

7. Social/Cultural Factors What do the following images indicate in terms of their influence on population change ?

8. Social/Cultural Factors o Some societies have intense cultural expectations that women should marry and have large families. o Education, especially female literacy is the key to lower fertility. o Education = knowledge of birth control, social awareness, opportunity for employment and more choice. o Social class – fertility tends to decline in the highest social classes first. o Religion – Muslim and Roman Catholic religions oppose artificial birth control. 90% of countries worldwide with a TFR over 7.0 are Islamic.

10. Economic Factors

11.  In many of the least developed countries child are seen as an economic asset – they are producers rather than consumers. For example, in Bangladesh boys are on average producing more than they consume by age 10, and have ‘repaid’ all of their parents investment in them by the time they are 15.  In the developed world this is reversed and the cost of raising children is a major factor in starting/extending a family. In the UK families are better off if they have fewer children since it costs on average £218,000 to raise a child to age 18!  Economic growth = lowering mortality due to more spending on health, housing, education etc.  Distribution of wealth within a country is also very important: share unequal = high BR share equal = BR lower. E.g. Kenya GNP $340 - 45.8% of wealth owned by richest 10% - TFR = 8.0 Sri Lanka GNP $340 - 28.2% of wealth owned by richest 10% - TFR = 3.4

12. PoliticalPolitical Factors HOW and WHY do governments attempt to change the rate of population growth?

13. Political Factors The past century has seen many governments attempt to change the rate of population growth for economic and strategic reasons. During the late 1930s Germany, Italy and Japan all offered inducements and concessions to those with large families. More recently Malaysia adopted a similar policy. However, today most governments are looking to change fertility rates with the aim of reducing population growth. E.g. In China taxes are increased and housing subsidies removed in child quota exceeded. The Indian government has introduced incentives to encourage the use of birth control.

14. Components of Population Change - MigrationMigration

15. MIGRATION: The movement of a person between two places for a certain period of time.

17. Can you add an example for each type of migration?

18. 1.A retired couple selling their house in London and moving to a new home on the south coast of England. 2.Families fleeing from their homes as a result of a natural disaster such as a flood or earthquake. 3.Poor Mexican peasants illegally crossing the border into the USA to seek work. 4.A group of workers whose employer is relocating their activities and offering workers a chance to move with the firm. 5.A person who defects from a country because they disagree with the nature of the political system in that country. 6.Victims of war whose farms or homes are threatened or destroyed by conflict. 7.Members of an ethnic group who leave their homes for fear of persecution. 8.African people sold as slaves to work on plantations in the Caribbean. 9.Kenyan Asians expelled from Kenya in the 1970s. 10.Guest workers from Turkey recruited to fill job vacancies in West Germany in the 1950s and 1960s. 1 2 Migrants: voluntary Refugees: forced Social and politica l factors Economi c factors A typology of migration

19. Migration Models Seeking to explain Patterns of Movement and Reasons for Movement

20. Uses of Models of Migration

21. Push and Pull Factors Push Factor / Push Forces Pressures which persuade a person to move away from an area. Pull Factor / Pull Forces Those which attract the migrant to a particular destination.

22. Pull Migration Simple Migration Model Location ALocation B Push

23. Lee’s General Migration Model Source: Population, Resources and Development. Jane Chrispin and Francis Jegede. Collins Educational.1996.

24. Location ALocation B Lee’s Migration Model Source: Adapted from Global Challenge. Alistair McNaught and Michael Witherick. Longman. 2001. + - 0 + - 0 Intervening Place Intervening Obstacles ? + - 0 Real / Perceived

25. Gravity Model In other words - the potential number of migrants will be bigger where the population of the place of departure and arrival are large……. …….and the further apart the places are the fewer migrants there will be! “The number of people moving between places A and B is equal to the population of A multiplied by the population of B divided by the square of the distance between them.”

26. Ravenstein’s Laws of Migration Hello!!!!

27. DISTANCESTEPSCOUNTER-STREAMURBAN vs RURALECONOMICGENDER

28. Step Migration

29. Circular Migration Migrants do not settle permanently in their new homes. They leave their rural homes at time of unemployment and then return periodically with money.

30. LimitationsLimitations of Models of Migration All the models are simplifications and they contain hidden assumptions. These assumptions can be unrealistic: that all people are free to migrate that all people have the skills, education and qualifications which allow them to move. that there are minimal barriers to migration, such as race, class, income, language and gender. that distance is not a major factor in migration.

32. Migration: Are more people on the move than ever before? Describe some of the main global migration routes. How many international migrants were there in 2013? Where do most international migrants live today? How has this changed since 1990?

33. Global migration: the special case of the EU As one of the ‘four freedoms’ of the EU, each European citizen may take up and pursue employment in the territory of another member state under the same conditions as the nationals of the host state (EU Treaty Art. 1 & Reg. 1612/68) The EU is made up of 27 states (nearly half a billion people) Members include Germany, the UK, France, Poland and Estonia Anyone can work and live anywhere!

34. Case Study: From Poland to the UK VOLUME 650,000 Poles have entered the UK (2004+) CHARACTERISTICS They bring a range of skills and occupations, including dentists and builders DEMOGRAPHICS The majority are aged 18-30 and significant numbers are having children while in the UK LONG-TERM Many will remain in the long-term but many more claim they will eventually return to Poland NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES Poland suffers from economic and social losses as a result of this migration POSITIVE CONSEQUENCES Remittances are sent back to families to Poland FURTHER CONSEQUENCES The Polish government had to recruit Indian workers to help it prepare for Euro 2012 football championship