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Unibanco and Unibanco Holdings, S.A. Unibanco Brazil Day 2008.

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Presentation on theme: "Unibanco and Unibanco Holdings, S.A. Unibanco Brazil Day 2008."— Presentation transcript:

1 Unibanco and Unibanco Holdings, S.A. Unibanco Brazil Day 2008

2 Source: Bloomberg Global Economy – Financial crisis took on global proportions TED Spreads (Libor – tbills 3 months) Average interest rate charged to investment grade companies (% p.a.) A recession in industrial economies and slower GDP growth in emerging countries is likely to occur in the 2H08. Cenário Macroeconômico 2 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 29/08/200629/09/200629/10/200629/11/200629/12/200629/01/200728/02/200729/03/2007 29/04/2007 29/05/200729/06/200729/07/200729/08/200729/09/200729/10/200729/11/200729/12/200729/01/200829/02/200829/03/200829/04/200829/05/200829/06/200829/07/200829/08/200829/09/2008 % 4.00 4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 29/08/200629/09/200629/10/200629/11/200629/12/200629/01/200728/02/200729/03/200729/04/200729/05/200729/06/2007 29/07/2007 29/08/200729/09/200729/10/200729/11/200729/12/200729/01/200829/02/200829/03/200829/04/200829/05/200829/06/200829/07/200829/08/2008 29/09/2008

3 Financial Market – In Brazil, a surge in global risk aversion and strong deleveraging led to currency depreciation and equities selloff. Source: BloombergSource: Federal Reserve Ibovespa (Index) Currency Moves (BRL/USD) Besides exacerbating volatility in the local financial market, the crisis is drying up the domestic supply of credit. 3 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 11/09/200611/10/200611/11/200611/12/200611/01/200711/02/200711/03/200711/04/2007 11/05/2007 11/06/200711/07/200711/08/200711/09/200711/10/200711/11/200711/12/200711/01/200811/02/200811/03/200811/04/200811/05/200811/06/200811/07/200811/08/200811/09/200811/10/2008 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 08/09/200608/10/200608/11/200608/12/200608/01/200708/02/200708/03/200708/04/200708/05/200708/06/200708/07/2007 08/08/200708/09/200708/10/200708/11/200708/12/200708/01/200808/02/200808/03/200808/04/200808/05/200808/06/200808/07/200808/08/2008 08/09/2008 08/10/2008

4 Fundamentals – The crisis reaches Brazil with strong fundamentals. Investment grade on nation’s external debt, net external creditor and a responsible fiscal policy attest to the soundness of the economy. With negative USD exposure of the domestic debt, the dollar appreciation has a positive impact on the public accounts. A high level of international reserves will act as a buffer to excessive external bearishness. International Reserves (US$ billions) Source: Bloomberg FX-linked Public Debt (% of total) -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Dec-99Mar-00 Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Sep-06 Dec-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-09 US$ million Gross ReservesNet Reserves 4

5 Credit – The global crisis should constrain domestic credit expansion during 2009, but the Brazilian Central Bank has tools to improve liquidity and avoid further deterioration. Source: IBGE, Unibanco Domestic Interest Rates (fixed rates % p.a.) 52,1% 39,3% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% Jan-05 Mar-05 Mai-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06 Mai-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 + 7.1 p.p. + 8.2 p.p. Rates Charged to IndividualsRates Charged to Businesses 5 Reserve Requirements (RS$ BN) Total Reserve Requirements (Aug/08) Potential Easing 259 160

6 Inflation and Growth – The credit crunch and tight monetary policy should curb GDP growth to 3% in 2009. GDP (% YoY) Source: IBGE, Unibanco IPCA (% annual) After spiking at 6.4% in 2008, IPCA consumer inflation should move down closer to the official target, closing 2009 at 51%. 6.0% 5.3% 3.0% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% Q1 1992Q4 1992Q3 1993Q2 1994Q1 1995Q4 1995Q3 1996Q2 1997Q1 1998Q4 1998Q3 1999Q2 2000Q1 2001Q4 2001Q3 2002Q2 2003Q1 2004Q4 2004Q3 2005Q2 2006Q1 2007Q4 2007Q3 2008Q2 2009 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% IPCA-15 (jan/04) IPCA (fev/04) IPCA-15 (abr/04) IPCA (mai/04) IPCA-15 (jul/04) IPCA (ago/04) IPCA-15 (out/04) IPCA (nov/04) IPCA-15 (jan/05) IPCA (fev/05) IPCA-15 (abr/05) IPCA (mai/05) IPCA-15 (jul/05) IPCA (ago/05) IPCA-15 (out/05) IPCA (nov/05) IPCA-15 (jan/06) IPCA (fev/06) IPCA-15 (abr/06) IPCA (mai/06) IPCA-15 (jul/06) IPCA (ago/06) IPCA-15 (out/06) IPCA (nov/06) IPCA-15 (jan/07) IPCA (fev/07) IPCA-15 (abr/07) IPCA (mai/07) IPCA-15 (jul/07) IPCA (ago/07) IPCA-15 (out/07) IPCA (nov/07) IPCA-15 (jan/08) IPCA (fev/08) IPCA-15 (abr/08) IPCA (mai/08) IPCA-15 (jul/08) IPCA (ago/08) IPCA-15 (out/08) IPCA (nov/08) IPCA-15 (jan/09) IPCA (fev/09) IPCA-15 (abr/09) IPCA (mai/09) IPCA-15 (jul/09) IPCA (ago/09) IPCA-15 (out/09) IPCA (nov/09)

7 2009 (E) Our Macroeconomic Outlook implies a soft landing for the Brazilian Economy GDP Growth Exchange Rate R$/US$ (year end) SELIC Interest rate (year end) IPCA (Consumer Price Index) 2008 (E) 7 The global financial crises should prompt the Central Bank to stop hiking interest rates; The Real depreciation early in 4Q08 will keep inflation under pressure in the short run; The effects of past domestic rate hikes along with the global credit crisis should induce a deceleration of GDP growth in 2009. 5.3% 2.05 13.75% 3.0% 2.00 13.25% 6.4%5.1% Exchange Rate R$/US$ (year end) – market Consensus 1.95 1.90

8 Timeline 8 Brazilian Financial System has already gone through a restructuring process during the period from 1994 to 2001 (PROER, PROES and state-owned Banks capital increases) in an amount over R$ 85 billion Brazilian Financial System presents higher Capital Ratios in comparison to worldwide averages Brazilian banks have lower leveraged Balance Sheets Solid Brazilian Financial System 12,7x 14,9x 30,9x 18,5x 20,4x BrazilUSAUKSpainWorld 17,5% 11,6% 8,1% 11,0% BrazilUSAUKSpainWorld Leverage (1) Capital Ratios (1) Total Assets/ Stockholders’ Equity

9 9 Consistent evolution in profitability; Discipline in cost control, with positive results in the expenses, reflecting better efficiency ratio; Consistent client base evolution, reaching more than 30 million clients throughout the country; 6 th largest bank in Latin America in market capitalization (as of Oct 17 th, 2008); Recurring Net Income (R$ Million) 9M069M079M08 1,634 1,885 2,201 9,6 12,9 11,6 23.1% 24.4% 24.5% 9M069M079M08 Annualized ROAE Stockholders´ Equity (R$ Bi) 9M05 1,329 9M04 9M059M04 908 CAGR 25% 9,0 7,9 21.3% 16.4% Unibanco´s Fundamentals – Solid position to face market challenges 47.9% 47.3% 47.6% 5.7% 3.7% 4.7% 9M069M079M08 Efficiency Ratio Cost to Average Assets 52.5% 9M059M04 65.9% 5.9% 6.9%

10 Unibanco´s Fundamentals – Solid position to face market challenges Coverage of NPLs Coverage D to H Portfolio Sep-07Jun-08Sep-08 102.6% Sep-07Jun-08Sep-08 98.9% 4.0% Sep-07Jun-08Sep-08 4.1% NPLs / Total Loans 101.7% 3.9% 118.1% 118.0% 118.4% Sep-07Jun-08Sep-08 R$ Billion 69.0 55.9 74.3 32.9% 7.7% Loan Portfolio 10

11 11 60 days past due Portfolio Coverage (%) 64.564.6 64.8 67.2 68.2 68.9 67.8 68.0 67.5 68.2 67.2 69.4 81.0 86.9 91.9 91.5 100.0 98.9 106.2 103.5 101.9 101.7 BFS UBB Asset Quality - Unibanco’s risk management policy, along with an increase in lower risk portfolios, allowed a continuous improvement in the credit portfolio quality As of September 2008 BFS: Brazilian Financial System Source: Brazilian Central Bank Jun-07Sep-06Mar-06Jun-08Mar-08Jun-06May-08Dec-07Sep-07Mar-07Dec-06Set-08 102.6 68.2 Earning Assets - Unibanco’s earning assets are 92% of total assets vs 81% of BFS Unibanco’s Solid Balance Sheet Fundamentals Funding – Unibanco’s Deposits to Loans Ratio has been stable around 100% in the last 6 years Deposits to Loans Ratio (1) (1) (Deposits+ Debentures) / Loans 54% 63% 97% 105% 100% 94% 98% 99% Dec-98Dec-00Dec-02Dec-04Dec-06Mar-08Jun-08Sep-08

12 Investor Relations phone: 5511-3905-1980 fax: 5511-3905-1585 email: investor.relations@unibanco.com This presentation contains forward-looking statements regarding Unibanco, its subsidiaries and affiliates - anticipated synergies, growth plans, projected results and future strategies. Although these forward-looking statements reflect management’s good faith beliefs, they involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause the Company’s actual results or outcomes to be materially different from those anticipated and discussed herein. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to our ability to realize the amount of the projected synergies and the timetable projected, as well as economic, competitive, governmental and technological factors affecting Unibanco’s operations, Sepkets, products and prices, and other factors detailed in Unibanco’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission which readers are urged to read carefully in assessing the forward-looking statements contained herein. Unibanco undertakes in duty to update any of the projections contained herein. Unibanco and Unibanco Holdings, S.A. Visit our website www.ir.unibanco.com RSSSMSVideosPodcast Interactive Desktop


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