1. Zentrum für Entwicklungsforschung Center for Development Research University of BonnZEF International Agricultural Policies and Food Security Joachim von Braun Center for Development Research (ZEF), University of Bonn CASS Forum Bejing 21. – 23. October 2010

4. Sticky problem: Child Malnutrition: (Stunting) Source: FAO 2004.

5. Agriculture and food related international public goods must be delivered… 1.Responding to and preventing food emergencies; 2.International research in food and agriculture; 3.Facilitation of sound natural resource management (soils, biodiversity, water, climate change adaptation and mitigation). 4.Trade openness, and international food reserve policy; 5.Sound competition policy and prevention of excessive speculation in food markets with appropriate regulation. 6.Trans-boundary food safety and health standards

6. Technology and Investment

7. Agricultural productivity growth in developing countries was too low % East Asia 2.7 South Asia 1.0 East Africa 0.4 West Africa 1.6 Southern Africa 1.3 Latin America 2.7 North Africa & West Asia 1.4 All regions 2.1 Annual total factor productivity growth, 1992-2003 Source: von Braun et al. 2008.

8. Agricultural technology for the poor, services, and investment –spending on agricultural research and development (R&D) is among the most effective types of investment for promoting growth and reducing poverty –plant breeding and biotechnology –If investments in public agricultural research were doubled… targeted at the poor regions of the world (Sub- Saharan Africa, South Asia) agricultural output growth would increase by 1 % point a year and lift about 282 million people out of poverty by 2020

9. Growing foreign land acquisitions: need for an international code of conduct for investment Source: von Braun and Meinzen-Dick 2009, with data compiled from media reports 2007-2009.

10. More open trade and a World Food Reserve Bank

11. Food prices and riots when prices spiked Source: J. von Braun based on systematic analyses of news reports 2007-8. Price are data from FAO 2009. Price spike

12. New link between financial crises and food prices: 1900 - 1990 - 2008 Ba n king, currency, sovereign default, and inflation crises index (weighted by share of income) Wheat price (2000 US$/metric ton, 3-year averages) Panic of 1907 Compiled by the author on the basis of the following sources: The wheat price are compiled and interpolated from data from BLS 2008, Godo 2001, NBER 2008, OECD 2005, U.S. Census Bureau 2008, and United Nations 1999. The BCDI Index is a composite index of banking, currency, sovereign default, and, inflation crises. It was developed by C. Reinhart and K. Rogoff, and presented at Brookings Institution in April, 2009. Source: J. von Braun Oct. 2010 Pre World War: CORR (1900 – 1950) = - 0.16

13. Reduction of extreme price volatility Food price volatility affected the poorest the most in 2008 and undermined the health and nutrition of many more There is a need for systematic thinking behind determination of optimal stock at national levels and there is the need for inventing international grain reserve policies – Better regulation: Excessive speculation opportunities in food commodities should be curbed by regulations and transparency of futures trading needs to increase.

14. Institutional design of an International Grain Reserves Bank Participating Countries’ (commitments to provide some defined grain reserves and funds, when need) A strong analysis unit High level Technical Commission Approves interventions: physical, financial Appoint Futures market: Improved regulation, and used for financial interventions Source: von Braun, Torero 2009

15. Expand social protection and nutrition policy action

16. Expand social protection and nutrition policies a set of public policies is required to address the health and nutrition risks. Instruments are: –Cash and in-kind transfers –Insurance –Nutrition and health actions

17. Food crisis is where the Poor Are Sub-national poverty ca. 2005 ($1.25/day) Prevalence Number Source:. J. von Braun et.al. IFPRI), 2009. Based on Stan Wood et al

18. Re-design the global governance system of agriculture, food, and nutrition

19. Redesign the global governance system of agriculture, food and nutrition Food and nutrition security requires sound organizational arrangements and governance Key principles for sound global governance of agriculture, food and nutrition security: legitimacy accountability effectiveness Inventiveness An independent strategic body is needed to overcome the global governance vacuum related to food security

20. Risk management Social protection Risk prevention (R&D) In Sum: The Concept for the agenda to prevent food crises

21. In sum, the Agenda 1.Promote agriculture growth with technology and institutional innovations to prevent risks (mostly national, some global) 2.Facilitate open trade and reduce market volatility (mostly global; a World Food Reserve Bank) 3.Expand social protection and child nutrition action and food safety (mostly national, some global)