2. Opportunities and Challenges Abraham Kim, Ph.D. Maureen & Mike Mansfield Center University of Montana Growing Energy Supply & Demand

3. EPA Regulations

4. Global Context

5. 2 Trends

6. 2030

8. 8 U.S. Net Energy Imports quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 History Projections 2013 High Oil Price High Oil and Gas Resource Current Trend Low Oil Price U.S. and international energy outlook April 2015 2030 U.S. Energy Exporter

9. Energy Supply Boom Greater Efficiency Tighter Regulations More Renewables

10. US Energy Consumption and Energy Mix 10 U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case History Projections 2013 36% 18% 27% 8% 1% 33% 10% 18% 29% 8% 1% Nuclear Petroleum and other liquids Natural gas Coal Renewables (excluding liquid biofuels) 2025 35% 19% 27% 8% 9% 1% Liquid biofuels 2040 U.S. and international energy outlook April 2015

11. Trend of Average Electricity Use and GDP Growth 11 U.S. electricity use and GDP percent growth (rolling average of 3-year periods) Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Reference case Structural Change in Economy - Higher prices - Standards - Improved efficiency Future Projections History 2013 Period Average Growth__ Electricity use GDP 1950s 9.8 4.2 1960s 7.3 4.5 1970s 4.7 3.2 1980s 2.9 3.1 1990s 2.4 3.2 2000-2013 0.7 1.9 2013-2040 0.8 2.4 Gross domestic product Electricity use U.S. and international energy outlook April 2015

12. Asia’s Energy Demand

13. Strong Economic Growth in Asia Source: Asia Development Bank

14. Asia Demand Growth Rate will outpace the World Source: Asia Development Bank

15. Fossil Fuels will still be the major source of energy in Asia Source: Asia Development Bank

18. Japan and Nuclear Power

21. Risky Ventures? Russia Constructed (2011.9) Scheduled Sakhalin Russia Khabarovsk Vladivostok China North Korea South Korea Japan Khasan Rajin

22. Look to the U.S. as Global Energy Supplier Provide Diversification Promote Energy Security Strengthen U.S. Relations Expand Energy Cooperation

23. Interest Capacity Speed U.S. Energy Supply Asia Energy Demand Regulation and Law Can the U.S. respond to the Demand?

24. China Korea Japan India Alaska LNG Canada? Kitimat LNG Douglas Island, BC United States Sabine Pass Freeport LNG Cameron LNG Cove Pont LNG Others? Australia Russia Sakhalin Island LNG Liquid Natural Gas Competition in the Asia-Pacific Basin Qatar LNG Papua New Guinea Mozambique Indonesia Malaysia Others Pipeline: 3.2 – 6.4 bcf/day

25. Thank You!

26. Abraham Kim, Ph.D. Director, Maureen and Mike Mansfield Center University of Mansfield Abraham.Kim@umontana.edu